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Are You Terrified About What Will Happen To This Country?

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Ok, so government stats say we have 2.5 million unemployed. That is a lot in itself, but that doesn't cover the millions of others who are underemployed, students, self-employed with no work or off the radar.

As the cuts begin to bite harder, and our economy deteriorates further, the jobless rate is inevitably going to get a lot higher.

The thing that frightens me the most is that this not like the quick "snap" boom or busts we have had in past years. This is a full-blown unemployment catastrophe.

There can be no false credit-boom to increase employment rates like the 90's crash. There can be no export driven recovery unlike previous recessions as we manufacture very little. And even if somehow, amazingly there is another "boom" the unemployment crisis will remain due to the automation, private corporatisation, off-shoring and homogenisation of industry and services.

It is easy for us on HPC to look at the figures and fee like smug gits as our unemployment projections come true. But what we must remember is that every one of those 2.5 millions is a real person.

When unemployment hits you it turns your world upside down, especially if you have a family who are dependant on you. As someone who suffers from underemployment due to unemployment-crisis I can assure you it has hit home with me. However, I have no dependants and few liabilities so it has not been as much of a plane crash as other people will face.

Another thing that frightens me is the fact that the only solution to the unemployment crisis is revolution, and that often entails violence and poverty on a widespread scale to become established. And after that revolution there are only a few outcomes that can eliminate the unemployment crisis:

1) We compete with China

2) We somehow establish more localised, labour-intensive industry and services. Like ye olden days

3) Die-off

4) Protectionism, import-tariffs, economic nationalism

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Ok, so government stats say we have 2.5 million unemployed. That is a lot in itself, but that doesn't cover the millions of others who are underemployed, students, self-employed with no work or off the radar.

As the cuts begin to bite harder, and our economy deteriorates further, the jobless rate is inevitably going to get a lot higher.

The thing that frightens me the most is that this not like the quick "snap" boom or busts we have had in past years. This is a full-blown unemployment catastrophe.

There can be no false credit-boom to increase employment rates like the 90's crash. There can be no export driven recovery unlike previous recessions as we manufacture very little. And even if somehow, amazingly there is another "boom" the unemployment crisis will remain due to the automation, private corporatisation, off-shoring and homogenisation of industry and services.

It is easy for us on HPC to look at the figures and fee like smug gits as our unemployment projections come true. But what we must remember is that every one of those 2.5 millions is a real person.

When unemployment hits you it turns your world upside down, especially if you have a family who are dependant on you. As someone who suffers from underemployment due to unemployment-crisis I can assure you it has hit home with me. However, I have no dependants and few liabilities so it has not been as much of a plane crash as other people will face.

Another thing that frightens me is the fact that the only solution to the unemployment crisis is revolution, and that often entails violence and poverty on a widespread scale to become established. And after that revolution there are only a few outcomes that can eliminate the unemployment crisis:

1) We compete with China

2) We somehow establish more localised, labour-intensive industry and services. Like ye olden days

3) Die-off

4) Protectionism, import-tariffs, economic nationalism

You obviously weren't around in the 1980s.

This is nothing compared to unemployment back then.

Go and watch 'Boys from the Black Stuff' on youtube.

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You obviously weren't around in the 1980s.

This is nothing compared to unemployment back then.

Go and watch 'Boys from the Black Stuff' on youtube.

+1

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You obviously weren't around in the 1980s.

This is nothing compared to unemployment back then.

Go and watch 'Boys from the Black Stuff' on youtube.

Thing is, if you discount student debt, and student numbers, the two periods will probably converge sooner that one expects...

In the 1980's, didn't 90% of the student population look for work rather than University?

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I also think that things were a lot worse in the 1980s.

Things are bad now, and will get worse, but they have been worse before, and for quite a long time, and society did not collapse.

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You obviously weren't around in the 1980s.

This is nothing compared to unemployment back then.

Go and watch 'Boys from the Black Stuff' on youtube.

+1

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I also think that things were a lot worse in the 1980s.

Things are bad now, and will get worse, but they have been worse before, and for quite a long time, and society did not collapse.

Yes, this is like 1980 or 1981, it started to pick up around 1985 and the time frame will probably be similar this time, the current government will need to go into the next election with the pain out of the way.

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Ok, so government stats say we have 2.5 million unemployed. That is a lot in itself, but that doesn't cover the millions of others who are underemployed, students, self-employed with no work or off the radar.

As the cuts begin to bite harder, and our economy deteriorates further, the jobless rate is inevitably going to get a lot higher.

The thing that frightens me the most is that this not like the quick "snap" boom or busts we have had in past years. This is a full-blown unemployment catastrophe.

There can be no false credit-boom to increase employment rates like the 90's crash. There can be no export driven recovery unlike previous recessions as we manufacture very little. And even if somehow, amazingly there is another "boom" the unemployment crisis will remain due to the automation, private corporatisation, off-shoring and homogenisation of industry and services.

It is easy for us on HPC to look at the figures and fee like smug gits as our unemployment projections come true. But what we must remember is that every one of those 2.5 millions is a real person.

When unemployment hits you it turns your world upside down, especially if you have a family who are dependant on you. As someone who suffers from underemployment due to unemployment-crisis I can assure you it has hit home with me. However, I have no dependants and few liabilities so it has not been as much of a plane crash as other people will face.

Another thing that frightens me is the fact that the only solution to the unemployment crisis is revolution, and that often entails violence and poverty on a widespread scale to become established. And after that revolution there are only a few outcomes that can eliminate the unemployment crisis:

1) We compete with China

2) We somehow establish more localised, labour-intensive industry and services. Like ye olden days

3) Die-off

4) Protectionism, import-tariffs, economic nationalism

I work in the care industry, am hearing more and more about (mainly Africans) having work visas denied. I think the immigration taps are slowly being turned down. There will be a backlash against EU labour if things get bad as well, any party aiming to challenge EU work treaties will do well at the polls IMO.

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There can be no false credit-boom to increase employment rates like the 90's crash.

Just out of interest, how old are you? I ask that because the 90's crash was mainly down to the ERM debacle and not a false credit boom.

The false credit boom was from approx 1999 until 2008, we should have had a bust in 2000/2001 due to the dot.com bubble bursting and - apparently - 9/11 but the fed and UK BoE lowered interest rates thereby adding more punch to the bowl! Hence why the hangover really f*cking hurts at the moment!

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My parents generation lived throgh World War 2. Could anything be more terrifying than that?

Similar type of thing, but with no background in industry and ruined farming to support us? No navy, no army and sod all air force (so a bit like 38/39) just a lot of volunteer police (a bit like 36 but they wear yellow instead of brown.)

Could be worse than it is though. Presumably will be worse than it is. Oh, and the government clearly not on 'our' side these days... as Blair said the social contract between the people and the government has been rewritten.

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If you have a roof over your head, and have access to free health care, and food is plentiful...then you are fine

try living without any of the above then you will understand what revolution is.

Honestly, we are very lucky to alive at this moment of time. Think of the instability your grandparents had to endure? did they turn to revolution because something didn't happen to go "their" way?

All that will happen is a slight shift to the right followed by a gradual return to the centre, nothing more, nothing less.

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I've been unemployed since June and I'm happier than I have been for years.

Work is very over-rated! ;)

I think it depends very much on ones financial situation. I also feel the need for work of some sort, whether it be 'work work', study, something creative like art, or something which is productive or satisfying.

Trying to live on benefits can be soul-destroying, imo. So is living on ones savings, when one has to watch it rapidly disappear.

But I know what you mean, if finance is not a problem:- 'Work is the curse of the drinking classes' - O. Wilde.

Edited by Giordano Bruno

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Ok, so government stats say we have 2.5 million unemployed. That is a lot in itself, but that doesn't cover the millions of others who are underemployed, students, self-employed with no work or off the radar.

With regards to the rest of your post, you have to consider that the underemployed might not want full employment and those that do need to do as the EU migrants do and MOVE to an area that provides them with what they need. As for students, well are these people researching the market demands before entering into a long term commitment that is a degree? The responsibility should be on the Universities for that as they SHOULD be keeping tabs on what the market demands! However, because they are funded via cheap money i.e. Student Loans and the working person's taxes (warehousemen, labourers, plumbers, sparkys, skilled people WITHOUT degrees) they are just in the business of "bums on seats". Again, the self employed should be self employed because what they supply is in demand...if demand is not there then they are self employed for the wrong reasons!

As for youth unemployment, well most firms are now in such a tight squeeze that they CANNOT afford to take a risk and employ someone that is/or a) over qualified B) lacks common sense c) has no experience and most importantly d) will not benefit their business i.e. hit the ground running! However, what is happening is that those with the right skills and the experience are being snapped up and that is good because those people pay tax so the govt has some form of income. Youth unemployment is a tradegy and I experienced it back in the early 90s when I left school! The only job I could get in 92 was on a building site for 10 quid a day and when that went belly up the last option was the YTS for 28 quid a week in exchange for a 40 hour week at a small manufacturing company. As much as I hated the YTS scheme, it provided free labour for private firms and I do believe that the scheme helped a lot of private businesses through the shit storm that was the early 90s! A lot of my friends who are very succesful started out on the YTS! Because even though the firm they worked for raped them for their labour, they were able to learn a lot from the firms and then go on and start their own business once the "common sense degree" was completed.

I'd like to comment on this "job expectation" culture that we have in this country and the expectation that "yah, if I write 28 essays I'll get a job on 30k at least". The best thing I ever did was to learn in my own time a secondary skill and for me that was a musical instrument. It took me about 10 years to complete the "musical common sense degree" which led me to drop trying to "make it big" to just playing the music of those that "made it big" in pubs, clubs, weddings and festivals. For THAT particular instrument and performing I was earning from £50 to £250 for 4 hours of performing and about 1 hour of break down and setup. Some gigs paid but others didn't pay much i.e. pubs and clubs. I then joined a band that performed at private functions only because I recognised that the market for those events paid more and from about 2004 till 2009 I was earning at least an extra 500 quid a month...ok some months were less but on average it was a good screw and tax free/ cash in hand! HOWEVER, gigs were a distance (fuel costs) and gear had to be replaced, repaired etc etc etc so the cash did go back into the Treasury LOL! Oh and not forgetting that I bought booze and fags and had some great holidays too! haha!

Two years ago I recognised that there was a big demand for a certain instrument in my secondary career: Keyboards and Piano. Finding a Keys player for a covers band was always a pain in the c0ck and I also recognised that they always got treated rather well by the band leader when compared to the other "common" instrument players that were 10 a penny! So 12 months ago I decided to drop out of the scene and "go back to college" in that I spent 4k on two top of the range keyboards: an 88 Key piano type board and a 61 key synth. I found a great tutor and am now studying the Piano. I'll be ready for the market in about another 12 months time where my strategy will be to "pimp" myself out to other bands!

Now I learned this lesson of a "second career" back in the mid 90s when I was made redundant from a job that I relied to heavily on for my lifestyle. I took it for granted that I would always have this job until the day myself and 10 others were called into the gaffers office and handed letters that we were "up the road". For me that was the realisation that I should have a backup plan in place!

My second career has saved me from eviction and more importantly prevented me from crying to the state that I need a bail out in the form of benefits! Of course I've been out of work since the above example but fortunately the "gigs" kept me from going over the edge and allowed me to take my time when trying to find new employment!

I've talked a lot of shit but felt it of worth to make the point that people in this day and age are failing to align themselves to what the punters want!

Of course this is just my opinions and please feel free to flame me!

:P

Edited by Chest Rockwell

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Just out of interest, how old are you? I ask that because the 90's crash was mainly down to the ERM debacle and not a false credit boom.

The false credit boom was from approx 1999 until 2008, we should have had a bust in 2000/2001 due to the dot.com bubble bursting and - apparently - 9/11 but the fed and UK BoE lowered interest rates thereby adding more punch to the bowl! Hence why the hangover really f*cking hurts at the moment!

I would disagree with that im 47 and was around in the 90's , the 90's crash was down to the credit boom ( not as big as this one ) of the late 80's popping as houses became unaffordable as interest rates rose. The ERM debacle was in 1992 and lowering of IR after pulling out of the ERM was the bottom of the slump and the start of the recovery.

I think this time things are going to be worse it is not just a cycle that has come to the bust part , but a change in many other factors. Human labour is needed much less, over the last 20 years real wages have been falling for those still in work due to lies in the inflation figures , we are now in a global economy in a bigger way than back then and due to our inherent hight costs can not compete with emerging economies, energy costs are rising as we now import more, due to a bigger credit boom we are saddled with bigger debts at the same time wage inlation is not eroding those debts. The ponzi pensions schemes are getting to the part where those paying in cannot cover the costs of those drawing out.

Yes we should have had a bust in 2000/2001 and as well as adding more punch to the bowl by lowering IR the govenment of the day created armies of non jobs to keep people in work. This is now unraveling .

I do not just see a recovery happening as it has in the past over a time period , this might not be as bed yet as the start of the 80's but it is going to get worse without any real light at the end of the tunnel. It is different this time it is worse.

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With regards to the rest of your post, you have to consider that the underemployed might not want full employment and those that do need to do as the EU migrants do and MOVE to an area that provides them with what they need. As for students, well are these people researching the market demands before entering into a long term commitment that is a degree? The responsibility should be on the Universities for that as they SHOULD be keeping tabs on what the market demands! However, because they are funded via cheap money i.e. Student Loans and the working person's taxes (warehousemen, labourers, plumbers, sparkys, skilled people WITHOUT degrees) they are just in the business of "bums on seats". Again, the self employed should be self employed because what they supply is in demand...if demand is not there then they are self employed for the wrong reasons!

As for youth unemployment, well most firms are now in such a tight squeeze that they CANNOT afford to take a risk and employ someone that is/or a) over qualified B) lacks common sense c) has no experience and most importantly d) will not benefit their business i.e. hit the ground running! However, what is happening is that those with the right skills and the experience are being snapped up and that is good because those people pay tax so the govt has some form of income. Youth unemployment is a tradegy and I experienced it back in the early 90s when I left school! The only job I could get in 92 was on a building site for 10 quid a day and when that went belly up the last option was the YTS for 28 quid a week in exchange for a 40 hour week at a small manufacturing company. As much as I hated the YTS scheme, it provided free labour for private firms and I do believe that the scheme helped a lot of private businesses through the shit storm that was the early 90s! A lot of my friends who are very succesful started out on the YTS! Because even though the firm they worked for raped them for their labour, they were able to learn a lot from the firms and then go on and start their own business once the "common sense degree" was completed.

I'd like to comment on this "job expectation" culture that we have in this country and the expectation that "yah, if I write 28 essays I'll get a job on 30k at least". The best thing I ever did was to learn in my own time a secondary skill and for me that was a musical instrument. It took me about 10 years to complete the "musical common sense degree" which led me to drop trying to "make it big" to just playing the music of those that "made it big" in pubs, clubs, weddings and festivals. For THAT particular instrument and performing I was earning from £50 to £250 for 4 hours of performing and about 1 hour of break down and setup. Some gigs paid but others didn't pay much i.e. pubs and clubs. I then joined a band that performed at private functions only because I recognised that the market for those events paid more and from about 2004 till 2009 I was earning at least an extra 500 quid a month...ok some months were less but on average it was a good screw and tax free/ cash in hand! HOWEVER, gigs were a distance (fuel costs) and gear had to be replaced, repaired etc etc etc so the cash did go back into the Treasury LOL! Oh and not forgetting that I bought booze and fags and had some great holidays too! haha!

Two years ago I recognised that there was a big demand for a certain instrument in my secondary career: Keyboards and Piano. Finding a Keys player for a covers band was always a pain in the c0ck and I also recognised that they always got treated rather well by the band leader when compared to the other "common" instrument players that were 10 a penny! So 12 months ago I decided to drop out of the scene and "go back to college" in that I spent 4k on two top of the range keyboards: an 88 Key piano type board and a 61 key synth. I found a great tutor and am now studying the Piano. I'll be ready for the market in about another 12 months time where my strategy will be to "pimp" myself out to other bands!

Now I learned this lesson of a "second career" back in the mid 90s when I was made redundant from a job that I relied to heavily on for my lifestyle. I took it for granted that I would always have this job until the day myself and 10 others were called into the gaffers office and handed letters that we were "up the road". For me that was the realisation that I should have a backup plan in place!

My second career has saved me from eviction and more importantly prevented me from crying to the state that I need a bail out in the form of benefits! Of course I've been out of work since the above example but fortunately the "gigs" kept me from going over the edge and allowed me to take my time when trying to find new employment!

I've talked a lot of shit but felt it of worth to make the point that people in this day and age are failing to align themselves to what the punters want!

Of course this is just my opinions and please feel free to flame me!

:P

I think you did great, but unfortunately not everyone has the ability or resources to do as you have done, imo. I think luck also plays a part in this kind of thing.

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I would disagree with that im 47 and was around in the 90's , the 90's crash was down to the credit boom ( not as big as this one ) of the late 80's popping as houses became unaffordable as interest rates rose. The ERM debacle was in 1992 and lowering of IR after pulling out of the ERM was the bottom of the slump and the start of the recovery.

I think this time things are going to be worse it is not just a cycle that has come to the bust part , but a change in many other factors. Human labour is needed much less, over the last 20 years real wages have been falling for those still in work due to lies in the inflation figures , we are now in a global economy in a bigger way than back then and due to our inherent hight costs can not compete with emerging economies, energy costs are rising as we now import more, due to a bigger credit boom we are saddled with bigger debts at the same time wage inlation is not eroding those debts. The ponzi pensions schemes are getting to the part where those paying in cannot cover the costs of those drawing out.

Yes we should have had a bust in 2000/2001 and as well as adding more punch to the bowl by lowering IR the govenment of the day created armies of non jobs to keep people in work. This is now unraveling .

I do not just see a recovery happening as it has in the past over a time period , this might not be as bed yet as the start of the 80's but it is going to get worse without any real light at the end of the tunnel. It is different this time it is worse.

An excellent post.

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I would disagree with that im 47 and was around in the 90's , the 90's crash was down to the credit boom ( not as big as this one ) of the late 80's popping as houses became unaffordable as interest rates rose. The ERM debacle was in 1992 and lowering of IR after pulling out of the ERM was the bottom of the slump and the start of the recovery.

So what we talking about here? The Early 90s crash as a result of the housing speculation (more late 80s i.e. 1988/89) OR the early 90s crash that was a result of the ERM debacle that saw IRs go sky high?

Or are we talking about a early 90s crash followed by a mid-early 90s crash?

:blink:

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So what we talking about here? The Early 90s crash as a result of the housing speculation (more late 80s i.e. 1988/89) OR the early 90s crash that was a result of the ERM debacle that saw IRs go sky high?

Or are we talking about a early 90s crash followed by a mid-early 90s crash?

:blink:

Am just confused as I've consumed a lot of booze and ciggis since that time...you might need to give me a history lesson!

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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