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You know, Saudi Arabia went through this process in the early 1980's. Huge empty housing complexes. I don't know if they were ever used. I was told that they had such large surpluses at the time that there just wasn't anywhere to put the money safely, so they just built things. China going through the same process now?

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Amazing. So many empty homes in Ireland, Dubai, China, Spain, even our Northern cities.

And no shortage of people who would love to own one.

Why don't the two halves come together like they would in any other market?

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You know, Saudi Arabia went through this process in the early 1980's. Huge empty housing complexes. I don't know if they were ever used. I was told that they had such large surpluses at the time that there just wasn't anywhere to put the money safely, so they just built things. China going through the same process now?

I wonder what effect all this building is having on the commodity markets?

Commodity super bull looks a little vulnerable to me, so much demand has been pulled forward by so many countries.

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I heard about this a few months ago. I don't understand it, It is completely insane.

I believe it is something to do with the following problems

a) Healthcare isn't free ( doesn't sound very communist to me ) so you need to save for old age.

b ) You can't rely on your child to look after you in your old age, because there is only one of them ( traditionally they would have 4-5 kids and they would look after their parents ).

c) You can't invest in stocks, bank interest rates are low and until very recently couldn't buy silver or gold for investment.

d) Property prices were increasing because of the large manufacturing boom.

e) Second hand properties are treated like second hand cars... they lose 50% of their value as soon as you live in them.

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Amazing. So many empty homes in Ireland, Dubai, China, Spain, even our Northern cities.

And no shortage of people who would love to own one.

Why don't the two halves come together like they would in any other market?

Shows how closely jobs and housing are linked.

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You know, Saudi Arabia went through this process in the early 1980's. Huge empty housing complexes. I don't know if they were ever used. I was told that they had such large surpluses at the time that there just wasn't anywhere to put the money safely, so they just built things. China going through the same process now?

Yes.

Chinese are desperate to find a place for their money, there was a detailed article about it but I've no chance of a link to it.

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Why don't the two halves come together like they would in any other market?

It not just housing where supply and demand diverge, in fact it is all markets, which explains the need for eternal growth.

Consumers never have enough money to buy up todays production at a price which leaves profits without adding debt.

The thing you HPC lot are missing, a crucial fact, is that it is not high nominal house prices and credit which are at the root of affordable house - it is income inequality.

In a fiat economy land and other yielding assets will eventually always attain a price which is commensurate with a low yield. This in itself would not be a problem if there were not OTHER factors present in the economy which are causing the perpetuation of extreme income inequality. For a given median wage level, houses will always attain their maximum price, so you should not be looking for price falls (which will happen only as a result of wage falls leaving you no closer to owning a house ) you should be looking for a reduction in income inequality in the nation.

And neither is credit expansion at the root of income inequality - the main reason for income inequality does not arise from the expansion of credit, although the two would appear to be correlated when you look at them on a graph.

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And neither is credit expansion at the root of income inequality - the main reason for income inequality does not arise from the expansion of credit, although the two would appear to be correlated when you look at them on a graph.

OK, I give up. What causes income inequality?

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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