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C M L: Email Says They Expect Lending To More Than Crash 2011

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-15/u-k-net-mortgage-lending-to-fall-by-a-third-in-2011-cml-says.html

U.K. Mortgage Lending May Decline by a Third in 2011 as Weakness Persists
By Scott Hamilton - Dec 15, 2010 12:01 AM GMT
U.K. net mortgage lending will shrink by
a third next year
as the housing market shows persisting weakness, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said.
Net mortgage lending will drop to 6 billion pounds ($9.5 billion) in 2011, the London-based lobby group said in an
e- mailed statement today.
That compares with an estimated 9 billion pounds this year and a total of 40 billion pounds in 2008. The number of housing transactions will slip by 30,000 to 860,000, the CML said.

So, demand down by a third. Big number that. Very big when you consider most see a "crash" as a drop of 20% or more.

I wonder if they have factored in:

1. Job losses building

2. The EU woes

3. IR

4. Disaster

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Net lending is always pretty volatile as it's one big number minus another big number. Negative net lending would be pretty crashtastic though, Ponzi schemes die quickly when more people are cashing out than jumping in.

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It all seems to be getting jolly interesting all of a sudden, and about time too.......... I'm dreaming of a Black Christmas.......... did I just call that?!!

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Its the SLS baby - Payback due by April 2011, leaving a large black hole in the lenders funding programs.

On 21 April 2008, the Bank of England launched the Special Liquidity Scheme (SLS) to improve the

liquidity position of the banking system by allowing banks and building societies to swap for up to

three years some of their illiquid assets for UK Treasury Bills. As announced on 17 September, the

drawdown period for the SLS closed on 30 January.

The BoE have said they will not extend the programme ----- [Nelson Muntz voice]HA HA[/Nelson Muntz voice]

Edit

They have until Jan 2012 to complete the payback

Edited by Griptool

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Its the SLS baby - Payback due by April 2011, leaving a large black hole in the lenders funding programs.

The BoE have said they will not extend the programme ----- [Nelson Muntz voice]HA HA[/Nelson Muntz voice]

Edit

They have until Jan 2012 to complete the payback

Bet you they do, unless the economy has miraculously recovered. The main players in government are bankers or sons of bankers.

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Bet you they do, unless the economy has miraculously recovered. The main players in government are bankers or sons of bankers.

The BoE has resisted just such pressure to extend the SLS. It's a point not always appreciated on here, but this is a much bigger trigger than interest rates.

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Until a couple of weeks the media were telling us that we were into the second dip and all was gloom and doom. Then suddenly the sentiment went a bit positive again and housebuilder shares went up. Now we're back into bear territory again. It seems like there seem to be waves of bull news then waves of bear, like the're synchronicty. If I were a conspiracy theorist........................ ;)

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The BoE has resisted just such pressure to extend the SLS. It's a point not always appreciated on here, but this is a much bigger trigger than interest rates.

+1

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Although the banks are only contractually due to start paying back SLS loans from April next year, they have in fact been steadily making repayments for the past twelve months.

Out of the original £185bn, £75bn has already been repaid.

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Although the banks are only contractually due to start paying back SLS loans from April next year, they have in fact been steadily making repayments for the past twelve months.

Out of the original £185bn, £75bn has already been repaid.

Really?

Makes sense as the government has been giving them money with the low interest rate so they've been profitable.

Evidence? (Not doubting, am interested).

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If they ever get implemented.

They've been pushed back to 2012 already, haven't they?

All this kicking the can down the road makes me wonder - would the govt. actually prefer a crisis

so they could say that events have forced their hand rather than be blamed for harsh policies?

We are growing old waiting for govts to do what has to be done, but they won't make a move until the

politics are 'right'.

Deeply annoying and frustrating.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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