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Realistbear

Mortgage Arrears Rate Up 100% Yo Y

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-owners-face-repossession-tele-1161803652.html;_ylt=Ak0pC.i19tPqmNVRGrV9kcTSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4bDQyc2xkBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNob21lb3duZXJzZmE-?x=0

Myra Butterworth, 7:08, Tuesday 14 December 2010
Home owners are falling behind with their monthly mortgage payments at an alarming rate, charities warn, as estate agents reveal the struggle to sell properties.
Almost a million households are in arrears with their rent or mortgage, twice as many as a year ago, according to homeless charity Shelter...../
Home owners are struggling to escape their misery by selling up as estate agents warn they are doing just one transaction a week amid a drop in demand from buyers who are unable to obtain affordable mortgages.

First, for those who are about to loose your homes, we salute you. :(

Next, for the many who are about to placved in a position of actually affording a home we rejoice with you. :D

I am DEFINITELY starting to get bearish again as some triggers appear to be emerging after a very long time in hibernation.

2011 could well be it folks.

Edited by Realistbear

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http://uk.finance.ya...3duZXJzZmE-?x=0

Myra Butterworth, 7:08, Tuesday 14 December 2010
Home owners are falling behind with their monthly mortgage payments at an alarming rate, charities warn, as estate agents reveal the struggle to sell properties.
Almost a million households are in arrears with their rent or mortgage, twice as many as a year ago, according to homeless charity Shelter...../
Home owners are struggling to escape their misery by selling up as estate agents warn they are doing just one transaction a week amid a drop in demand from buyers who are unable to obtain affordable mortgages.

First, for those who are about to loose your homes, we salute you. :(

Next, for the many who are about to placved in a position of actually affording a home we rejoice with you. :D

I am DEFINITELY starting to get bearish again as some triggers appear to be emerging after a very long time in hibernation.

2011 could well be it folks.

eva-flip-flops-20838.jpg

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The out of touch Bankrupt of England were ignorant of the bubble, they are ignorant of the effect that inflation will have on the bulk of the population - not surprising whilst the pigs are swilling multi- £100K salaries in thanks for destoying the economy.

Collapse across the board - renters, debtors, no-debtors, savers when the inflationary trigger point is reached.

There has been no let up in transferring what remains of Uk business abroad, becuase there has been no change in failed economic policies and the monetary meddling that this gang of crooks have been involved in.

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.....

Next, for the many who are about to placved in a position of actually affording a home we rejoice with you. :D

.....

Many? LOL More like about 3 in total.

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One needs to be careful with this type of survey:

Shelter’s survey of 2,000 Britons found 3 per cent of households admit to being in arrears with their rent or mortgage, the equivalent of 835,000 up from 405,000 a year ago.

Given a UK population of c. 25,000,000 households my quick calculations of the confidence interval for this survey are:

at 95% that is 3% +/- 0.75% i.e. the real result is probably somewhere between 2.25% and 3.75%.
at 99% confidence the result is 3% +/- 1%

So the increase IS significant - but we can't really tell quite how significant. One needs to give this result quite some lattitude.

If you're interested in quick calculations of sample sizes and confidence intervals I really recommend this online calculator.

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that's the spirit RB. You had me worried there for a while. What stands us bears out from the crowd is while everyone else is walking one way the bear we will be marching the other following our noses, us bears don't have the herding instinct, we are not sheep.

RB we are witnessing history being made with the global financial crisis and coming housing crash. It is difficult sometimes when you are living through history as it moves at such a slow pace. Picture future economics students opening their texts books and moving a finger down the index of the book, past global economic crisis 2007. Maybe the finger will pause at euro collapse - who knows I don't have a silver ball. One thing is for certain, it won't be pretty. History is being made.

I'm not preaching to the converted here realist bear, you know in your heart of heart what is coming.

Stand tall RB be proud to be a bear.

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that's the spirit RB. You had me worried there for a while. What stands us bears out from the crowd is while everyone else is walking one way the bear we will be marching the other following our noses, us bears don't have the herding instinct, we are not sheep.

RB we are witnessing history being made with the global financial crisis and coming housing crash. It is difficult sometimes when you are living through history as it moves at such a slow pace. Picture future economics students opening their texts books and moving a finger down the index of the book, past global economic crisis 2007. Maybe the finger will pause at euro collapse - who knows I don't have a silver ball. One thing is for certain, it won't be pretty. History is being made.

I'm not preaching to the converted here realist bear, you know in your heart of heart what is coming.

Stand tall RB be proud to be a bear.

+1.5!

Well, one of us had to be the last bear to start to turn a bit ( a bit) bullish to get this thing turned around and back on track!

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+1.5!

Well, one of us had to be the last bear to start to turn a bit ( a bit) bullish to get this thing turned around and back on track!

It's been a bumpy ride recently and I believe 2011 is going to be a very interesting year. Agreed that you can only follow your convictions to a point. If the evidence is staring you in the face then you have to sometimes hold your hands up and admit your were wrong. I don't think we are anywhere near that point. I believe the headlines will come thick and fast next year.

Fundamentals are at stake here. Do you honestly believe that a bunch of clueless politicians from both governments are able to buck the market. Market always wins end of.

Record low interest I admit was a trump card I didn't expect. Quantitative Easing.. Yes Very clever, they gave printing money a pretty name however that's all the trump cards in the deck used up now. They can't keep printing money forever without the public getting suspicious as to why petrol is £3 a litre.. Those 20 million people glued to x-factor will twig at some point that "something is rotten in the state of Denmark" when it £10 a pint.

Don't doubt your convictions for a second RB. If I'm wrong I will eat my hat. just like kirsty alsopp.

Edited by history repeats

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I'm not preaching to the converted here realist bear, you know in your heart of heart what is coming.

Stand tall RB be proud to be a bear.

The RB should remain as bullish possible. It really works. It's a karma thing.

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The RB should remain as bullish possible. It really works. It's a karma thing.

I think gold is a good buy at these levels*

*Cue evil genius laugh: Muh huh huh huh haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa :lol::lol::lol:

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One needs to be careful with this type of survey:

Given a UK population of c. 25,000,000 households my quick calculations of the confidence interval for this survey are:

at 95% that is 3% +/- 0.75% i.e. the real result is probably somewhere between 2.25% and 3.75%.
at 99% confidence the result is 3% +/- 1%

So the increase IS significant - but we can't really tell quite how significant. One needs to give this result quite some lattitude.

If you're interested in quick calculations of sample sizes and confidence intervals I really recommend this online calculator.

Excellent point - the confidence interval is an extremely under utilised and poorly understood statistic, yet very informative.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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