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R.i.c.s - Prices Slide For Sixth Consecutive Month

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http://www.rics.org/site/download_feed.aspx?fileID=7801&fileExtension=PDF

The October RICS Housing Market Survey shows more surveyors reporting prices falling rather than rising. The headline price net balance declined from –36 to –49, the lowest reading since April 2009.

Actually, the non-seasonally adjusted figure for October was -52.. I wonder what November will bring us ?

I'm guessing -32

Edited by exiges

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Housing market slowdown blamed on spending cuts and lack of buyers

UK residential property sales and prices continue to slide for sixth consecutive month, but some estate agents are optimistic.

A dearth of first-time buyers and anxiety about the impact of the government's spending cuts were cited by estate agents today as the key factors behind a slowdown in Britain's property market last month.

The monthly health check on the state of residential housing from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) showed that activity and prices both weakened in November, continuing the trend started in the spring.

Fewer people put their homes on the market last month and inquiries from potential buyers fell back for a sixth consecutive month, Rics said. It added that the hefty deposits demanded from first-time buyers coupled with the rationing of home loans from lenders meant first-time buyers were struggling to "get a foot on the property ladder".

Ian Perry, a Rics spokesman, said: "There was little change in the housing market in November; prices continued to edge lower and sales levels generally remained subdued. Despite some better economic data, fears over how future spending cuts will impact on the jobs market are clearly still weighing heavily on potential purchasers' minds, with many deciding to wait and see until the new year. Meanwhile, the lack of mortgage finance continues to deter first-time buyers."

After falling sharply during 2008, the UK property market recovered quickly during 2009 as a result of ultra-low interest rates and a lack of available homes for sale. But the Rics surveys since the spring have indicated a fresh downturn.

In the three months to November, only 4% the 295 firms contacted said prices in their area had risen while 53% said they had fallen. The balance of -49 percentage points showed a slight improvement from the -52 points reported in October. However, adjusted for seasonal factors, the balance improved from -49 points to -44 points.

Transaction levels remained low, with average sales per surveyor dipping from 15.2 in October to 14.8 in November – the lowest level since June 2009. The average number of properties on surveyors' books increased by 3.3% during November to 69.5.

Rics said its members expected house prices to continue falling in the early months of 2011, but firms were more upbeat about the prospect for sales. More firms expect activity to pick up over the next three months than expect it to decrease.

Surveyors said prices were falling in all 12 regions of the UK, with London, Scotland and the south-west performing best while the most widespread declines are reported in Northern Ireland and the West Midlands.

Jeremy Dell, a surveyor in Oswestry, Shropshire, said: "The housing market is only a shadow of itself in 2007. The economics indicate a long downward spiral."

Edited by exiges

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/dec/14/housing-market-slide-continues

In the three months to November, only 4% the 295 firms contacted said prices in their area had risen while 53% said they had fallen. The balance of -49 percentage points showed a slight improvement from the -52 points reported in October. However, adjusted for seasonal factors, the balance improved from -49 points to -44 points.

Transaction levels remained low, with average sales per surveyor dipping from 15.2 in October to 14.8 in November – the lowest level since June 2009. The average number of properties on surveyors' books increased by 3.3% during November to 69.5.

Rics said its members expected house prices to continue falling in the early months of 2011, but firms were more upbeat about the prospect for sales. More firms expect activity to pick up over the next three months than expect it to decrease.

Surveyors said prices were falling in all 12 regions of the UK, with London, Scotland and the south-west performing best while the most widespread declines are reported in Northern Ireland and the West Midlands.

Jeremy Dell, a surveyor in Oswestry, Shropshire, said: "The housing market is only a shadow of itself in 2007. The economics indicate a long downward spiral."

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HOUSE prices kept sliding in a “horribly quiet” market last month, according to estate agents.

The Royal Institution for Chartered Surveyors said the number of members reporting prices falling outweighed those seeing increases by a whacking 44%.

The number of properties changing hands also fell with agents completing an average of 14.8 deals last month, the lowest since June 2009. RICS blamed a shortage of buyers and a fall in the number of properties coming onto the market.

The number of agents seeing a drop in new buyer inquiries outnumbered those reporting a rise by 18%, up from 12% in October.

Read more: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/city-news/2010/12/14/house-prices-slide-in-snow-say-estate-agents-115875-22782242/#ixzz182YPH0gW

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BBC spin

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11983859

The housing market is being stifled by a lack of first-time buyers and economic confidence, according to surveyors.

More reported prices falling than rising in November - a similar picture to the previous month, said the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

New buyer enquiries, newly agreed sales and average sales per surveyor all fell in November, the survey found.

Prices were falling across the UK and activity remained slow.

However, the end of the year is generally a slow time of year for the housing market and surveyors believe some sellers will wait until the new year before putting properties on the market.

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"However, the end of the year is generally a slow time of year for the housing market and surveyors believe some sellers will wait until the new year before putting properties on the market."

The spring flood of new listings :)

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"Housing market slowdown blamed on spending cuts and lack of buyers" Cuts? What cuts? :unsure:

The cuts are theory at the moment. It may take awhile for the IMF to wake up and realise that our AAA+ bond rating and ability to keep IR low is based on things which are not going to happen. Even the student fees hike may get shot down as the Lord are apparently tabling a motion to send it back to the Commons for a rethink.

An IMF re-think could be a trigger as it will impact our to date bullet-proof credit rating and appearance of being immune to troubles globally. We are the last man standing HPI-wise and just need a trigger to bring it all down.

The potential triggers are numerous and probably justify universal bear status on property from January 2011:

1. Likely meltdown in the EZ and knock on effect here

2. Higher IR resulting from increasing perception that we are at risk despite hitherto immunity to global problems

3. Political unrest hat may bring the Koalishon down (the thoughts of Millipede taking over will make matters even worse)

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"Housing market slowdown blamed on spending cuts and lack of buyers" Cuts? What cuts? :unsure:

Look... these guys have something to blame other than the obvious issue of over-priced housing. The VI mantra of high house prices = good is still living and breathing, although for sure a chest infection is taking hold ;)

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"However, the end of the year is generally a slow time of year for the housing market and surveyors believe some sellers will wait until the new year before putting properties on the market."

The spring flood of new listings :)

Yep, even bulls have to agree with that. But who expects a matching flood of new buyers? Not even bulls. :)

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Yep, even bulls have to agree with that. But who expects a matching flood of new buyers? Not even bulls. :)

Some of the agent comments talk of 'People putting off the sale of their properties until spring'

Currently new listings are -4 new buyer enquirers are -18. Even at the current rate of not much coming to Market we should still expect price falls.

It also shows that the slow pace of new listings I'm seeing is mainly seasonal.

Sales to unsold stock ratio dropping again to 21.3% from 22.6% indictaing that price will continue for several months

I think 2011 will be a good year, and if forced sales rise, a great year!

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I think the best short term (2-6 months) indicator is the chart "Ratio of sales to unsold stocks on surveyors’ books - England and Wales, %" (on page 3, bottom left)

Since 1996, the peak was around 63%, around spring 2002, and the bottom was around 13% around spring 2009.

Now it is: "The sales to stock ratio edged down from 22.6% to 21.3%, reflecting the fall in sales. This is the lowest sales to stock ratio since May 2009."

Edit: I've just seen that whilst I was typing this post you posted about the very same chart. We are in tune.

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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