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Factory Gate Inflation Eases Unexpectedly

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Factory-gate-inflation-eases-reuters_molt-1379467813.html?x=0

LONDON (
Reuters
) - British factory gate inflation slowed unexpectedly in November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) after petroleum prices rose less quickly than the same time a year ago, official data showed on Friday.
The Office for National Statistics said annual producer output price inflation slowed to 3.9 percent in November from 4.0 percent in October, confounding forecasts for a pick-up to 4.1 percent.
No input price data was available, however. The ONS said it was delaying the publication of these figures until Monday, December 13 due to "potential errors".

Why is so much obvious data "unexpected?" How many on here expected the banks to collapse due to structural insolvency? Apart from RB, that is.

If we get deflation and job losses teh crash is back on--BIG TIME. I am starting to feel my old self again......

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If we get deflation and job losses teh crash is back on--BIG TIME. I am starting to feel my old self again......

RB, true to form, blowing in the wind.

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RB, true to form, blowing in the wind.

IF is the word.

I have always maintained that there will be no crash without a trigger and the trigger has always been massive job losses--deflation will lay property prices to waste as it did in Japan. Never believed anything different. People who have no job have no mortgage money to give to their creditor bankster.

Your problem is that you have buried your head in the gold bucket and are convinced by your own statistics that there will be a major crash. You miss the major trends as a result and probably went short on bonds and the $ this year am I right?

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p!ssing, more like.

I see you are NEITHER one way or the other too! Looks like the Neithers arwe growing in number--congratulations. Did your forecasts all pan out this year?

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IF is the word.

I have always maintained that there will be no crash without a trigger and the trigger has always been massive job losses--deflation will lay property prices to waste as it did in Japan. Never believed anything different. People who have no job have no mortgage money to give to their creditor bankster.

purleease! You have always blown with the wind.

Your problem is that you have buried your head in the gold bucket and are convinced by your own statistics that there will be a major crash. You miss the major trends as a result and probably went short on bonds and the $ this year am I right?

Unfortunately, don't have anywhere near anything close to be able to play like that. I have a very small pot, about 20% NS&I, 80% gold. No currency, bonds, shares, etc.

from the facts that I see, at peak, house prices are around 2.5 times overpriced. i.e. we are due a correction crash (damn government speak, gets everywhere) of 60%.

Gold is my way of maintaining my purchasing ability - with any luck, it will achieve better than this. Of course, my ultimate aim is to buy a house. In respect to that, gold has done well and will hopefully provide most of my deposit when the time is right.

I have always maintained this position in my time on here, and consistently argued that corner. If you look through my historic posts, you will see that I have never posted anything that contradicts this.

On the other hand, you spout so many theories, and positions, that even now I do not know what your position truly is. You post so many contradictory arguments that in hindsight you can always look back and say "I told you so". It doesn't mean that you have been right, though, ever.

I would truly like to see a historic post(s) of yours telling us a future position you were going to take in an investment(s), and how these have panned out.

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Factory-gate-inflation-eases-reuters_molt-1379467813.html?x=0

LONDON (
Reuters
) - British factory gate inflation slowed unexpectedly in November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) after petroleum prices rose less quickly than the same time a year ago, official data showed on Friday.
The Office for National Statistics said annual producer output price inflation slowed to 3.9 percent in November from 4.0 percent in October, confounding forecasts for a pick-up to 4.1 percent.
No input price data was available, however. The ONS said it was delaying the publication of these figures until Monday, December 13 due to "potential errors".

Why is so much obvious data "unexpected?" How many on here expected the banks to collapse due to structural insolvency? Apart from RB, that is.

If we get deflation and job losses teh crash is back on--BIG TIME. I am starting to feel my old self again......

Anyway, back (slightly) on topic.

factory output INFLATION *in one month* changed from 4.0 to 3.9, and this is enough for you to start to question your own opinion that we aren't going to get a significant HPC?

No wonder your opinion holds little sway.

What trends are developing in the data? what was it 3 months ago? 6 months? a year? What drivers are there for this to change? What is the cause, and what are the effects?

Also, note that prices aren't dropping - they are still "officially" rising at the rate of 4%. Why, then, are you talking deflation? Your posts, and logic, make no sense.

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Anyway, back (slightly) on topic.

factory output INFLATION *in one month* changed from 4.0 to 3.9, and this is enough for you to start to question your own opinion that we aren't going to get a significant HPC?

No wonder your opinion holds little sway.

What trends are developing in the data? what was it 3 months ago? 6 months? a year? What drivers are there for this to change? What is the cause, and what are the effects?

Also, note that prices aren't dropping - they are still "officially" rising at the rate of 4%. Why, then, are you talking deflation? Your posts, and logic, make no sense.

You're wasting your time. I gave up trying to educate RB years ago.

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You're wasting your time. I gave up trying to educate RB years ago.

It's not RB I'm trying to educate. I'm just worried that some people might read his musings random prattle as if he is actually correct.

As I've said, RB is a great newshound, and for that reason I'm glad he posts stuuf, however just wish he'd separate out his opinion.

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purleease! You have always blown with the wind.

Unfortunately, don't have anywhere near anything close to be able to play like that. I have a very small pot, about 20% NS&I, 80% gold. No currency, bonds, shares, etc.

from the facts that I see, at peak, house prices are around 2.5 times overpriced. i.e. we are due a correction crash (damn government speak, gets everywhere) of 60%.

Gold is my way of maintaining my purchasing ability - with any luck, it will achieve better than this. Of course, my ultimate aim is to buy a house. In respect to that, gold has done well and will hopefully provide most of my deposit when the time is right.

I have always maintained this position in my time on here, and consistently argued that corner. If you look through my historic posts, you will see that I have never posted anything that contradicts this.

On the other hand, you spout so many theories, and positions, that even now I do not know what your position truly is. You post so many contradictory arguments that in hindsight you can always look back and say "I told you so". It doesn't mean that you have been right, though, ever.

I would truly like to see a historic post(s) of yours telling us a future position you were going to take in an investment(s), and how these have panned out.

"80% gold"

That explains a lot. :D

I am not gold bull because I don't do metals anymore and find the whole gold scene too much of a religion for me. I pulled a number out of the hat a month or so ago, maybe longer, for a top at about $1374 IIRC and it is still bouncing around that region weeks on.

If you had seen my old siggie you would have seen two major forecasts that would have made a few a fortune: Euro collapse and Sterling drop to the 1.50's. Ask Spline about the UKC tip--many of us made 300-400% on that one. I also warned that the banks were insolvent and that it would be a structural collapse months before they went down and many on here said it was just fractional reserve stretched a bit. I suggested US treasuries early this year and they turned out to be one of the best returning investments with average returns of 13% on the big PIMCO funds.

Apart from Gold, which is not really of much interest to me other than wondering why people are so upset by any attacks on it, I would say my track record has been pretty good.

As for a major HPC--so far no sign of one. Maybe 20% from the top but IMO 50% was the target and we are a long way from that.

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You're wasting your time. I gave up trying to educate RB years ago.

Didn't know you were a teacher? Are you sure your education is not just your opinion? Have you fallen into the trap of posting opinions? Facts only on here please. :)

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"80% gold"

That explains a lot. :D

I am not gold bull because I don't do metals anymore and find the whole gold scene too much of a religion for me. I pulled a number out of the hat a month or so ago, maybe longer, for a top at about $1374 IIRC and it is still bouncing around that region weeks on.

If you had seen my old siggie you would have seen two major forecasts that would have made a few a fortune: Euro collapse and Sterling drop to the 1.50's. Ask Spline about the UKC tip--many of us made 300-400% on that one. I also warned that the banks were insolvent and that it would be a structural collapse months before they went down and many on here said it was just fractional reserve stretched a bit. I suggested US treasuries early this year and they turned out to be one of the best returning investments with average returns of 13% on the big PIMCO funds.

Apart from Gold, which is not really of much interest to me other than wondering why people are so upset by any attacks on it, I would say my track record has been pretty good.

As for a major HPC--so far no sign of one. Maybe 20% from the top but IMO 50% was the target and we are a long way from that.

linkies?

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IF is the word.

I have always maintained that there will be no crash without a trigger and the trigger has always been massive job losses--deflation will lay property prices to waste as it did in Japan. Never believed anything different. People who have no job have no mortgage money to give to their creditor bankster.

Your problem is that you have buried your head in the gold bucket and are convinced by your own statistics that there will be a major crash. You miss the major trends as a result and probably went short on bonds and the $ this year am I right?

+1

All the QE etc was simply replacing money ALREADY spent and destroyed in the debt collapse.The inflation went through the system over the last decade.It will create 0 now.IMO the best investments of the next decade are quality corporate bonds and cash in sterling or US.Manufacturing is improving,in fact the fastest iv ever seen but from the lowest base iv ever seen.It wont be inflationary,far too much spare capacity.This is deflation all the way and gold housing and leveraged assets are terrible investments.Inflation hedges have been fantastic investments foreign equities the best but IMO now is the time to trade out and back into sterling cash/bonds.

This crisis has years to run,and wont end until wages bottom out,housing falls by 50%+ and government spendind is cut in half.

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+1

All the QE etc was simply replacing money ALREADY spent and destroyed in the debt collapse.The inflation went through the system over the last decade.It will create 0 now.IMO the best investments of the next decade are quality corporate bonds and cash in sterling or US.Manufacturing is improving,in fact the fastest iv ever seen but from the lowest base iv ever seen.It wont be inflationary,far too much spare capacity.This is deflation all the way and gold housing and leveraged assets are terrible investments.Inflation hedges have been fantastic investments foreign equities the best but IMO now is the time to trade out and back into sterling cash/bonds.

This crisis has years to run,and wont end until wages bottom out,housing falls by 50%+ and government spendind is cut in half.

Yeh, get into cash when you reckon that there's deflation coming.

Do you know what happens to banks when there's outright deflation?

Oh, I forgot, you're gonna keep all that fiat under your matresses aren't you?

Sucker.

Edited by Arbitrage

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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