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Academagictrix: Houses Hit 2 Year High

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-10/u-k-acadametrics-house-price-estimate-rises-to-two-year-high.html

U.K. Acadametrics House-Price Estimate Rises to Two-Year High
By Scott "Scotty" Hamilton - Dec 10, 2010 12:01 AM GMT
U.K. house prices increased to the highest in more than two years in November as the market showed signs of reaching a peak, research company Acadametrics Ltd. and LSL Property Services Plc said in an estimate released today.
The average price of a home in England and Wales climbed for a seventh month, gaining 0.2 percent to 224,758 pounds ($354,200), the groups said in an e-mailed report today. Values rose 5.9 percent from a year earlier and are now at the highest since June 2008..../
The Bank of England yesterday kept its emergency stimulus program unchanged after recent data suggested the economy may be strong enough to weather the government’s spending cuts, undermining the case for more aid. Policy makers held their bond-purchase plan at 200 billion pounds and their main interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent.

Any more bears thinking about going "Neither?"

:(

Edited by Realistbear

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Nope.

Ah yes. And the reason we won't like it is because it's now part run by LSL property services.

http://www.lslps.co.uk/about.html

Well they won't have a vested interested will they...

This is of no more importance to me than Knight Frank or Savills telling everyone that the London Market is booming or Steve the local house salesman telling me I should buy now before the "spring bounce" surge happens!

Edited by Pent Up

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Nope.

This is of no more importance to me than Knight Frank or Savills telling everyone that the London Market is booming!

If this is true it interesting that the big data company in the US (Dataquick) used to spin data like Goebbels and I eventually got so fed up with it that I got a local journo in San Diego to run a big Sunday article exposing the BS approach to statistics. THe market crashed 6 months later. :lol:

Is it possible---and I not sure anyone would believe this--that the government are running a war time propaganda campaign and knowing HPI is our only hope are adjusting the data. If this were to be true I am sure a wikileaks scenario would already be underway as we live in a vastly different world today than in WW2.

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I have to admit Realist, the last few days your truly depressing attempt to ramp house prices has totally failed with me. The reason being, your opinions change with the wind and cannot be taken seriously. I can't work out why you keep saying HPI is occuring when it clearly is not

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Any more bears thinking about going "Neither?"

I don't understand the bull / bear thing. I'm a neither based on having no idea what will happen, not on what I think should happen - which is house prices should be cheaper. Politics is about maintaining the status quo (i.e. votes) so market sentiment (economics in a fancy hat) has to be greater than market inertia to swing events. I don't see the engine for such a change, which doesn't mean it can't or shouldn't take place.

There should probably be a fourth category - hopeful cynic. How about (cash) cow?

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-10/u-k-acadametrics-house-price-estimate-rises-to-two-year-high.html

U.K. Acadametrics House-Price Estimate Rises to Two-Year High
By Scott "Scotty" Hamilton - Dec 10, 2010 12:01 AM GMT
U.K. house prices increased to the highest in more than two years in November as the market showed signs of reaching a peak, research company Acadametrics Ltd. and LSL Property Services Plc said in an estimate released today.
The average price of a home in England and Wales climbed for a seventh month, gaining 0.2 percent to 224,758 pounds ($354,200), the groups said in an e-mailed report today. Values rose 5.9 percent from a year earlier and are now at the highest since June 2008..../
The Bank of England yesterday kept its emergency stimulus program unchanged after recent data suggested the economy may be strong enough to weather the government’s spending cuts, undermining the case for more aid. Policy makers held their bond-purchase plan at 200 billion pounds and their main interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent.

Any more bears thinking about going "Neither?"

:(

It would appear from your recent posts that you are trying to get us to endorse your change of mind and agree with you one way or another. Whatever you have in mind, buy in the UK, not buy in the UK, leave the UK, it is your life and your decision alone. Whether people are bullish or bearish is irrelevant when it comes to deciding your future.

I could tell you that were I live and may buy, houses clearly haven't rising lately and aren't stabilizing. Supply has ground to a halt (but then it is that time of year) and what is left on the market is desperately not selling. But then you may have a completely different experience where you live, have different requirements and expectations. So my experience may be irrelevant to you.

I could also tell you that I only expect and 15-20% drop, that I think it would be enough and I can't see it dropping more; but again you may be expecting 50% and nothing else will do!

Good luck either way but remember that you are in control of your destiny, no one else and certainly not bloggers...

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The market is tanking....Right now.

Look at the average house price according to the other indices:

Land Registry £165,505

Halifax £164,919

Nationwide £163,398

Now look at the Acadametrics figure - It is over 35% higher.

Now look at who produces the index:

"Our Chairman, Dr Peter Williams, is past Deputy Director General of the Council of Mortgage Lenders and Jim Cunningham was the CML Senior Economist."

They claim that their model "provides the definitive source of house price data for England and Wales".

This is pure conceit. That's what the Land Registry does. Nationwide and Halifax at least get close to the Land Registry figures. The market is falling very fast at the moment Realistbear. Why not switch your computer off and go and talk to some Estate Agents? Or better still just walk past their windows. Let me know if you see anyone through them apart from the Estate Agents themselves.

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You just know anyone calling themselves Academetrics has got to be a recently retired old buffer bigging up his credentials in a last ditch attempt at gaining credibility and paying for his fursty ferret. The client list on what is a very amatuerish website says it all about his target paymasters: Abbey (he hasnt even got the coffers to change it to Santander), C and G, Northern Crock, Barclays, HBOS, Nationwide, Standard Life etc etc zzzzzzzzzzzz

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I have to admit Realist, the last few days your truly depressing attempt to ramp house prices has totally failed with me. The reason being, your opinions change with the wind and cannot be taken seriously. I can't work out why you keep saying HPI is occuring when it clearly is not

5 years as a solid bear doesn't sound like chnaging with the wind to me, or to him. :blink:

My turning to Neither happened about a week or so ago after a flood of bullish data that suggests the crash may peter out to a further drop of arund 10% but not much more.

I am not ramping property but expressing shere disgust over the state of things in this. We are run by Banksters and this is probably why they are using every effort to maintain their empire which stands on the foundation of HPI.

I am planning to buy overseas--maybe SoCal maybe Spain--who knows. This country is a rip off, has always been a rip off and will always be a rip off.

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You just know anyone calling themselves Academetrics has got to be a recently retired old buffer bigging up his credentials in a last ditch attempt at gaining credibility and paying for his fursty ferret. The client list on what is a very amatuerish website says it all about his target paymasters: Abbey (he hasnt even got the coffers to change it to Santander), C and G, Northern Crock, Barclays, HBOS, Nationwide, Standard Life etc etc zzzzzzzzzzzz

Fair enough that Rightmove shows an inflated figure - it is not even produced by lenders....but is based on asking prices....produced by Estate Agents (for Chrissakes)!

But the "deceit" by the CML is quite widespread and disconcertingly nowhere near as transparent as that attempted by our shiny-suited friends:

For example, where else do we see inflated figures?

Well, there's the FT index....produced by? Yes, you've guessed it Acadametrics!

How about the high DLG figures?

"Since October 2005 the mix-adjusted house price index has been based on a sample of mortgage completions data from the Regulated Mortgage Survey (RMS) as collected by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML)/BankSearch"

I wonder how long the figures have to be 30-odd percent out on all these bogus indices before someone finds it all a bit too embarrassing and pulls the plug?

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5 years as a solid bear doesn't sound like chnaging with the wind to me, or to him. :blink:

My turning to Neither happened about a week or so ago after a flood of bullish data that suggests the crash may peter out to a further drop of arund 10% but not much more.

I am not ramping property but expressing shere disgust over the state of things in this. We are run by Banksters and this is probably why they are using every effort to maintain their empire which stands on the foundation of HPI.

I am planning to buy overseas--maybe SoCal maybe Spain--who knows. This country is a rip off, has always been a rip off and will always be a rip off.

I could not agree more. I hardly post here anymore as I do not now believe we will see our much hoped for crash.

The game is rigged and the VI's and the banksters WILL prop it up. As such I have determined that I just need to play the game and earn more money and have concentrated all my efforts on this activity.

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5 years as a solid bear doesn't sound like chnaging with the wind to me, or to him. :blink:

My turning to Neither happened about a week or so ago after a flood of bullish data that suggests the crash may peter out to a further drop of arund 10% but not much more.

I am not ramping property but expressing shere disgust over the state of things in this. We are run by Banksters and this is probably why they are using every effort to maintain their empire which stands on the foundation of HPI.

I am planning to buy overseas--maybe SoCal maybe Spain--who knows. This country is a rip off, has always been a rip off and will always be a rip off.

Buy overseas then, what are you waiting for?

I come from overseas, you know, where the grass is greener! Yes the UK is a rip-off, yes it is not children friendly, but if I worked in Spain, I would earn of third and if I worked in France I would earn half. Canada attracts me (just for a few years as an experience) but it is a bit far from family. As for the US, I don't know anyone in their right mind who would want to live there (I know you do, no offense there).

Anyway, if I ever give up on the UK, I will go, full stop. Just go if you think it is better for you, put your money where your mouth is and I am sure no one will be telling you that you keep changing your mind with the wind anymore. Good luck.

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Trying to steer things back to the OP...

Last month, this survey was +0.3% and the sensationalist blurb they have put out today about hps being higher than at any stage in the last two years was pretty much equally true then. The fact is, this month is 0.2% growth. The nominal figures involved are minimal and the trend, which is just about there, is the rate of growth slowing and about to become negative. They have nailed their true colours to the mast with the ridiculous and overly optimistic blurb though.

If this report does include cash sales and thus capture the very top end of the market, then this data confirms what the last Land Registry figures showed - the lower end of the market is being affected most and will ultimately pull the top end down.

Halifax had figures that bucked the trend for a couple of months. Anyone remember the rather spectacular figure they conjured up to correct that in September -3.6%!

This report is also the one that probably gets the least media pick up too (it's not given a mention on Forex Factory either).

Edited by rantnrave

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It’s worth pausing a moment to consider what “two year high” actually means. Pwoperdee has returned to the level it was two years ago.

Of the slightly better known building society indices:

(1) Nationwide says that we’re currently about £5k higher than November 2008; and

(2) Halifax says that we’re currently at pretty well exactly the same level as 2008.

In other words Acadametrics [i’ll just call it ‘A’] is not actually showing anything all that different from the others in terms of the medium term. What seemingly is different is that both Halifax and Nationwide showed that prices by the end of 2009 were quite a lot higher than at end 2008 – A did not, seemingly, if it has a “two year high” at the end of 2010, show.

So let’s not run away with the idea that A is some kind of super-ramp-tastic estate agent’s index. It’s just different. More bearish about 2009, possibly more bullish in 2010. Who knows where the truth lies.

For me, the thing that really stands out about A is the name. Totally preposterous. Worthy of being ignored on the strength of that alone.

Edited by the flying pig

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Feel free to buy in SoCal Realistbear but you are beginning to sound like a broken record proselytising for your new beliefs. You come over as desperate to single- handedly convert the HPC membership. Posters can make up their own minds what their status is with regards to house prices.

I agree. Its getting boring!

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(...)

Is it possible---and I not sure anyone would believe this--that the government are running a war time propaganda campaign and knowing HPI is our only hope are adjusting the data.

(...)

Why don't you believe these news?

http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/mortgages/coalition-ready-to-let-property-values-fall/1015197.article

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100006841/why-house-prices-must-fall-by-25-per-cent-or-more/

Everything since has confirmed it.

The government signalled their destination both privately (to the mortgage indusrty, via various channels), and publicly (to friendly journos), and the banks are acting accordingly since.

What part of it you don't believe?

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Feel free to buy in SoCal Realistbear but you are beginning to sound like a broken record proselytising for your new beliefs. You come over as desperate to single- handedly convert the HPC membership. Posters can make up their own minds what their status is with regards to house prices.

Annoying isn't it, it's almost as if RB is being purposely antagonistic. For what reason I haven't a clue, nor do I care, I just wish he'd put a sock in it :(.

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I have to admit Realist, the last few days your truly depressing attempt to ramp house prices has totally failed with me. The reason being, your opinions change with the wind and cannot be taken seriously. I can't work out why you keep saying HPI is occuring when it clearly is not

+1

Good post!

Spiney.

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Feel free to buy in SoCal Realistbear but you are beginning to sound like a broken record proselytising for your new beliefs. You come over as desperate to single- handedly convert the HPC membership. Posters can make up their own minds what their status is with regards to house prices.

I wasn't aware that posters could have a point of view as you say. Oh well, learning all the time...... ;)

If we get deflation plus job losses I will turn more Bearish. As a matter of fact, just had a word from a friend in the NHS and they are actually cutting her and about one third of her office loose in February. It looks like jobs are actually being cut by the govvy and its not just government lies.

Edited by Realistbear

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RB's style is to talk about "belief", not FACTS.

Anyone remember this thread?

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=5217&view=findpost&p=62387

Facts are what you belive to be true.

The facts being published by the VIs such as RM and Halifax are only facts in their own minds. And one man's fact is another's theory. The only one to sum it up is Steve Hawking and his fact that it all started from nothing. Or is that just a big bang theory? IMO the big bang is a fact. :blink:

If you think you can find some facts among economists good luck! History at least has hindsight.

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Facts are what you belive to be true.

I can't believe you used to be a lawyer with a statement like that.

Facts just are. ok, at a fundamental level you have to believe that the thing actually exists, but if we rise above the basic philosophy of "what is existence" then a fact is something that cannot be disputed. It just is. Actually, there are two types - there are proveable facts, and unproveable facts.

Proveable facts - the Halifax HPI value publishged the other day was -0.1%.

Unproveable fact - I once kicked ken dodd in the ****.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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