Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
oracle

Talking Japanese

Recommended Posts

NIKKEI is looking in very good shape.Almost at 13k.

Has anybody else looked at/bought in?...my play is for jap restructure(faster than EU/Germany), plus currency appreciating vs sterling.

Bubb if you're viewing what's your synopsis of the chart(I'm very bullish as you probably already know...and have put money on it)

Edited by oracle

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes,

I get paid in yen, so currency appreciation would be nice. The exchange rate at the moment is not good, at about 78 yen to the dollar, up from about 60 yen a couple of years ago.

If land prices in Japan keep on falling, I might be able to buy a nice little house near the seaside in Shimoda (the port where Captain Perry made landfall in Japan in the 1860s) for my retirement. Although prices in the main centers will no doubt hold their value, the provinces are going to get hammered due to depopulation, the aging population and lack of employment. With 63% forest cover, Japan is a green country indeed. (Check out Google Earth). (Okay, so the coastal plains are wall-to-wall concrete--I'll admit that.)

Japanese shares pay lousy dividends, but with the pace of reform gathering speed and a gradual changing of the guard in corporate Japan, things may improve. Japan has had 13 years to face reality and eat humble pie. A lot of weaknesses and inefficiencies in the system have been exposed and criticized. The old problems of the aging population and dependence on exports to drive the economy still remain. If Europe and the U.S. tip into a severe recession, Japan may be in a better position to recover first, having had more experience dealing with a burst bubble and the hangover of a consumer credit binge.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Corporate restructuring is well under way. its been the story for 2-3yrs now.

shareholder awareness is on the up. takeover over fear is ever present. vulture funds are lurking.

dividend growth is forecast for +20% for next three years thats per annum.

land prices have started to tick upwards on a year by year figure in Tokyo.

If inflation returns theres a good chance domestic investors will put cash into the market. greater income potential (bonds return 1.4% yields will climb /capital loss on bond)- many japanese companies have 25% cash on their balance sheets. could double dividends each year and still have a low payout ratio. ageing popluation and the need for pension mandates to generate income will force companies to pay out more dividends.

cash flow yield is highest in the world so they can do this.

year on year bank lending growth has stabilised. should credit growth start to tick up, inflation will return , property values will improve, bank margins will expand fast.

im in japanses funds. some small cap some that are mutlicap in style. all focusing on the domestic story. If they are investing in export names - forget it - they are missing the story.

biggest worry- global slowdown - derails Japans recovery - but its a domestic story so it could still do it.

sorry for rambling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Corporate restructuring is well under way. its been the story for 2-3yrs now.

shareholder awareness is on the up. takeover over fear is ever present. vulture funds are lurking.

dividend growth is forecast for +20% for next three years thats per annum.

land prices have started to tick upwards on a year by year figure in Tokyo.

If inflation returns theres a good chance domestic investors will put cash into the market. greater income potential (bonds return 1.4% yields will climb /capital loss on bond)- many japanese companies have 25% cash on their balance sheets. could double dividends each year and still have a low payout ratio. ageing popluation and the need for pension mandates to generate income will force companies to pay out more dividends.

cash flow yield is highest in the world so they can do this.

year on year bank lending growth has stabilised. should credit growth start to tick up, inflation will return , property values will improve, bank margins will expand fast.

im in japanses funds. some small cap some that are mutlicap in style. all focusing on the domestic story. If they are investing in export names - forget it - they are missing the story.

biggest worry- global slowdown - derails Japans recovery - but its a domestic story so it could still do it.

sorry for rambling.

Agree on the domestic story. Have been drip-feeding small amounts into a domestic oriented fund for a few months into my ISA and pension. Still not bold enough to go into more than this at the moment as I'm sure a global slowdown will filter through..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I put all my equity into japan a couple of months ago so I'm very happy :) I think it's only going to keep going up too. Japan's been in an unnatural slump for 15 years now and I think it's finally kicked itself out of it. There's even talk of them raising interest rates!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I put all my equity into japan a couple of months ago so I'm very happy :) I think it's only going to keep going up too. Japan's been in an unnatural slump for 15 years now and I think it's finally kicked itself out of it. There's even talk of them raising interest rates!

A lot of overseas money is going into the market but not too much from local investors. If they do come in and start buying they will really move the market!

I use ITs rather than trying to buy individual stocks. The only problem here for new buyers is that discounts to NAV have closed up considerably in recent days.

http://www.trustnet.co.uk/it/funds/perf.as...submitbutton=Go

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

not too sure I agree with the export side doing badly.

the likes of toyota and honda are really getting their teeth into the other auto-makers ate present....there's serious gain in market share.

if oil prices are rising then the world needs to know how to do more with less,and the japs have technology on their side this time around.

....saw a little excerpt in the paper today about them drilling into the earth's mantle.could they be about to try and harness "core" power too?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

not too sure I agree with the export side doing badly.

the likes of toyota and honda are really getting their teeth into the other auto-makers ate present....there's serious gain in market share.

if oil prices are rising then the world needs to know how to do more with less,and the japs have technology on their side this time around.

....saw a little excerpt in the paper today about them drilling into the earth's mantle.could they be about to try and harness "core" power too?

Everyone's so bullish about Japan (except the Japanese) that my contrarianism's kicked in and I've taken my profits in 80% of my Jap ITs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone's so bullish about Japan (except the Japanese) that my contrarianism's kicked in and I've taken my profits in 80% of my Jap ITs.

good point. if japan is the way forward for investment as i have heard so many say, why is it that every japanese i meet is fantastically bleak in their prognosis going forward for the country and economy? i am not sure that foreign investment (which won't be encouraged by the japanese old guard anyway), is going to be enough to inject enough momentum in the medium-term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

good point. if japan is the way forward for investment as i have heard so many say, why is it that every japanese i meet is fantastically bleak in their prognosis going forward for the country and economy? i am not sure that foreign investment (which won't be encouraged by the japanese old guard anyway), is going to be enough to inject enough momentum in the medium-term.

that's the good bit!!!.cast your minds back to the early 80's.WE in UK were alll feeling pretty crap about life,with x million unemployed.Who would have predicted within 5 years we would have a world class economy,yuppies,etc......sometimes an external vantage point is useful.

PLUS.....the technical charts for the NIKKEI/TOPIX look a good deal better than for the dow jones.....even the s+p/ftse don't look as positive.(for those wondering what the hell I'm on about,I the best charts DON'T always go from bottom left to top right.........that bit only becomes clear after time has elapsed.What I've been more intereseted in is the 5-6 year long base it has made,and the uptick above 12k a few months ago)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

None of these geographical investments seem to make the blindest bit of difference. I sold my US-based stocks, and then invested in China, Japan and Eastern Europe / Russia. Then the Dow tanks - What happens? All these get hit worse than the Dow. Even my Gold mining shares have taken a battering!

Yet obscenely overvalued Google shares remain steady at $300 a pop!

I'm going to quit stocks and return to my Ladybird savings account, I'll never understand the markets

Edited by tonification

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

None of these geographical investments seem to make the blindest bit of difference. I sold my US-based stocks, and then invested in China, Japan and Eastern Europe / Russia. Then the Dow tanks - What happens? All these get hit worse than the Dow. Even my Gold mining shares have taken a battering!

Yet obscenely overvalued Google shares remain steady at $300 a pop!

I'm going to quit stocks and return to my Ladybird savings account, I'll never understand the markets

But if markets were cricket- japan is just coming out to bat first innings and still seeing off the awkward new ball.

No real idea about new Europe etc but assume they have had a good knock...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But if markets were cricket- japan is just coming out to bat first innings and still seeing off the awkward new ball.

No real idea about new Europe etc but assume they have had a good knock...

Looking at recent history for the Nikkei, it HAS increased as our own FTSE has increased but it too took a BIG knock in 2000! Admittedly, it's been 20000+ but in this modern, globalised world, can markets really operate that independently of one another? I've noticed that over the last few days the Nikkei has been falling as the FTSE has. Will they fall together as they have risen together?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at recent history for the Nikkei, it HAS increased as our own FTSE has increased but it too took a BIG knock in 2000! Admittedly, it's been 20000+ but in this modern, globalised world, can markets really operate that independently of one another? I've noticed that over the last few days the Nikkei has been falling as the FTSE has. Will they fall together as they have risen together?

that's globalisation for you,and the short answer is yes,well sort of.there are degrees of performance relative to one another.

on the one hand you have US consumer slowing,which should be a drag on global markets

on the other you have jap consumer spending more,and becoming a good deal more confident about their prospects after 10 years or so....and they love their gadgets!

risk vs reward I would say jap is a far lower risk bet right now.....even if the wheels come off the US,the japs are over the worst and should be in a position to recover quickly as they do not have the hangover from housing to come....they had theirs last decade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Be careful where you invest in Japan. Some of the globalised manufacturing sectors have been posting record profits for a while and have valuations to match.

Where I suspect the money is to be made is in parts of the service sector that haven't yet been globalised to the same extent as manufacturing - much of which is export based: if you had been the bright spark who had backed starbucks going into Japan 6 years ago you'd be a very happy bright spark indeed right now.

Tokyo hasn't been doing badly for several years now, but other parts of the country, especially in regional cities - Aomori, Niigata, Nagasaki etc. - and in the countryside have really suffered as a result of consumers keeping their wallets shut. But if Mama and Papa Tanaka decide that their jobs are safe, their pensions will be funded and that life isn't so bad after all, then they could loosen their wallets and the regional economies will begin to take off. In this scenario, some of the more traditional retailers with big exposure in the regions might do well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Be careful where you invest in Japan. Some of the globalised manufacturing sectors have been posting record profits for a while and have valuations to match.

Where I suspect the money is to be made is in parts of the service sector that haven't yet been globalised to the same extent as manufacturing - much of which is export based: if you had been the bright spark who had backed starbucks going into Japan 6 years ago you'd be a very happy bright spark indeed right now.

Tokyo hasn't been doing badly for several years now, but other parts of the country, especially in regional cities - Aomori, Niigata, Nagasaki etc. - and in the countryside have really suffered as a result of consumers keeping their wallets shut. But if Mama and Papa Tanaka decide that their jobs are safe, their pensions will be funded and that life isn't so bad after all, then they could loosen their wallets and the regional economies will begin to take off. In this scenario, some of the more traditional retailers with big exposure in the regions might do well.

spot on!!!....but alongside that is the global demand for products which do more with less.

less energy that is.The japs are market leaders in hybrid(and hydrogen fuel cell) as well as OLED tv's to name but a few.

the common theme with these is they all need less energy to perform the same function as products we have,but energy is costing us more......so who's going to be taking market share when we replace????

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm going to quit stocks and return to my Ladybird savings account, I'll never understand the markets

Iā€™m with you on this ā€“ stocks only seem worthwhile if you keep moving them and have the time to follow them ā€“ the only other thing I have learnt is only to buy after a crash / slide i.e. when they look v cheap

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why is the Yen weak vs GBP at present - its at an annual low. What will happen next?

something to do with jap investors buying into US bonds I believe.

someone else on here said about japs traditionally being the last on the bandwagon.....US bonds are really not where you want to put money if IR's are going up!!

....but it suits me fine......a weaker yen only makes the jap export picture even better!...and allows me to hoover up a bit more with a bit less!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure if anyone has looked at ishares Exchange Traded Fund that tracks the Japanese stock market. I wanted to put some money in it mid summer, gone down but now steadily rising, read quite a few articles about the growth in Japan over the next few years. Most probabaly going to try and put a few hundred quid into it come new year( I am small fry!)

Good thing about ETFs (on squaregain anyway) is that I dont have to pay dealing or stamp duty, well didnt when I bought the FTSE 100 back in April. Once they become more popular then suppose they will start charging. Cheaper than a fund etc as charge is about 0.5-0.9% I think p.a. accuracy of tracking is within 1% too i think.

Edited by Mr_Sminty

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure if anyone has looked at ishares Exchange Traded Fund that tracks the Japanese stock market. I wanted to put some money in it mid summer, gone down but now steadily rising, read quite a few articles about the growth in Japan over the next few years. Most probabaly going to try and put a few hundred quid into it come new year( I am small fry!)

Good thing about ETFs (on squaregain anyway) is that I dont have to pay dealing or stamp duty, well didnt when I bought the FTSE 100 back in April. Once they become more popular then suppose they will start charging. Cheaper than a fund etc as charge is about 0.5-0.9% I think p.a. accuracy of tracking is within 1% too i think.

I've gone for the fund myself but I see where you're coming from.

.......personally I think the very sneaky depreciation in yen is a good thing,it means the export trades will be improving and japan is looking increasingly good.

the weak yen won't last,but it's worth making the most of hoovering up some cheap jap stuff,because when you re-convert to sterling in a few years time...the picture will be a bit different and the yen a whole lot stronger....so you wil get stock rises AND currency profit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

anybody else see the article in the sunday times?

they reckon nikkei at 20k next year

(optimistic I think,but going in the right direction)

....for those that bought in at 12k that's 80% appreciation!!!!

stick that in your House price and smoke it!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.