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gruffydd

What On Earth? Is The Gulf Stream Broken?

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Interesting. One of my mates studies these kinds of things, and I've heard him talk of the possibility that the whole current there, which I don't pretend to understand, could at some point stop functioning and divert elsewhere. That of course is doomsday stuff, and its only after many beers that we talk on that level. I believe however, that the syphon effect of the gulf stream is based upon temperature differentials, so how oil and dilutants comes in to play is beyond me.

If that were to happen, we'd be fooked here, as we'd have winters like Norway or similar, and we simply don't have the energy to survive long in that scenario.

Who knows, none of us have access to the raw data or modelling software, so its purely speculation on what you have been fed with.

Some mainstream has covered this.

Coldest winter in 1,000 years on its way

After the record heat wave this summer, Russia's weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme.

Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.

The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years. Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe.

So far, the results have been lower temperatures: for example, in Central Russia, they are a couple of degrees below the norm.

“Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely,” Vadim Zavodchenkov, a leading specialist at the Fobos weather center, told RT. “We will be able to judge with more certainty come November. As for last summer's heat, the statistical models that meteorologists use to draw up long-term forecasts aren't able to predict an anomaly like that.”

In order to meet the harsh winter head on, Moscow authorities are drawing up measures to help Muscovites survive the extreme cold.

Most of all, the government is concerned with homeless people who risk freezing to death if the forecast of the meteorologists come true. Social services and police are being ordered to take the situation under control even if they have to force the homeless to take help.

Moscow authorities have also started checking air conditioning systems in all socially important buildings. All the conditioners are being carefully cleaned from the remains of summer smog.

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Dunno if it's anything to do with it, but according to this diagram of global surface temperature anomalies, the areas you would normally expect to be warmed by the Gulf Stream have not been very warm this year:

2010vs2005+1998.gif

Edit: And that's only until October!

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I took a break and studied environmental science, there is evidence that the gulf stream is slowing. If it had stopped trust me you would not be posting on this forum.

If it stopped we would probably starve or freeze to death.

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I remember watching a documentary a few years back, it said warming at the ice caps causes more icebergs to fall away from the Arctic ice and drift south and also more cold water to sink below the Arctic and travel south before resurfacing near the gulf stream. It was posited that the combined effect of these two actions could turn off the gulf stream.

Thinking about it , this could be part of a self regulating system on earth that keeps the planets temperature stable overall, as the rising temperatures at the pole(s) causes a shift in things like the gulf stream that causes thing to cool down again.

Having said all that, I think I've seen snow and ice before during the winter months, and if I remember correctly, every time it's happened before in my life, the gulf stream hasn't switched off and we haven't entered a new ice age ;)

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I knew this would be a cold winter, since I read the following article last summer, it has nothing to do with the gulf stream (although I'm not excluding that the oil spill might have done some additional damage), but rather with solar cyles:

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189

Last winter (our summer) has been exceptionally cold in many parts of the southern hemisphere too, which can hardly be caused by the gulf stream.

If the theories of that web site I mentioned above are true (and to me they seem very convincing), then we will have a string of cold winters until 2020.

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You are right to be sceptical - its total bull sh1t, either a spoof or the author should be sacked. The loop current phenomena is widely known in the southern states and there is a LOT of research into the effects of the GOM ecosytem. Here is an explanation of how the loop breaks eevery now and then shedding eddies:

http://ocean.tamu.edu/Quarterdeck/QD6.1/spin.html

Note also the RT article mentions the gulf stream has thinned over the past couple of years - i.e. no correlation with Moncando.

Still - the gulf stream is thinning so expect further reliance on Russian gas...... I think i have mentioned before the stupidity and shallowness of the UK Department of Energy. Its mind boggling to me the UK has become dependent on Russian gas with worse to come.

I'm very sceptical about this. Nevertheless... http://www.associazi...it/OilSpill.pdf

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Yes I remember that one, thats the one where the coolists blew the warmists out of the water.

I seem to recall a slowing gulf stream (ans subsequent impact on Europe) being a major concern of the 'warmists' <_<

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I seem to recall a slowing gulf stream (ans subsequent impact on Europe) being a major concern of the 'warmists' <_<

Yes The turning off of the gulf stream is a symptom of global warming as I remember it. The warmer climate melts the ice caps flooding the northern Atlantic with fresh water and diluting the salinity of the ocean thereby disrupting the currents of the gulf stream. Causing Europe to be as cold as Siberia, snow 6 months a year. I actually studied this at school over ten years ago.

It's for the reason my future house must have a working fireplace and preferably a nice big forest nearby!

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Wasn't the shutting down of the Guf Stream portrayed in the film "The Day After Tomorrow" a few years ago :ph34r:

Oh, my snow tyres and log fire won't help then...

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Wasn't the shutting down of the Guf Stream portrayed in the film "The Day After Tomorrow" a few years ago :ph34r:

It was - but it wasn't exactly the most credible of portrayal of the possible impacts though. I'm not sure I'd be using it to decide whether to stock up on gold, baked beans or wood myself.

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All very dramatic until one realises that the Artic ice if melted makes no difference to the volume of water in the oceans. ,

dilution is the problem. ice is fresh water in the main....so large changes in salinity is an issue.

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All very dramatic until one realises that the Artic ice if melted makes no difference to the volume of water in the oceans. ,

Did you know if everybody in the world went to their local beach at the same time and pished in it, it would put most of western Europe* under water, atlantis style

*Except Maidstone which would see a corresponding increase in property prices due to lack of supply

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Just because they regurgitated that movie, didn't mean tah tthey didn't get a whooping.

Yes, we all agreed and adopted the new model of climate as proposed by the 'skeptics'

You'll have to remind me again what it was, was it 'All scientists are poopy-heads, objects change temperature for absolutely no reason whatsoever, especially if that reason could involve jobs in US swing election states?'

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spare me the science

and of course, adding ice to an already full glass will cause it to overflow.

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Why is it so unlikely that the massive oil spill in the Gulf last spring/summer could impact the Gulf stream?

Isn't it likely that this oil spill has had a far greater negative impact than has been reported in the media?

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I think it went along the lines that MMGW was similar to a religion and anyone who didn't go along with it was a flat earther that should be burned to death with natural gas.

Apart from the minor issue that it isn't.

At the risk of pointing out the extremely obvious, it's a pretty standard case of projection.

Skeptics will never, as an article of faith, admit that global warming is in that the strongest theory explaining current observations by a very long way, and they will also never admit that there could be any negative consequences. Skeptics will rarely if ever criticize one another even when their respective sects directly contradict one another (It's not warming! It's warming because of the Sun!). They are perfectly happy to lie, conspire, threaten and bully in service of 'the cause' whilst being hypersensitive to even the slightest hint of such behavior from 'the other side' - for example, plagiarism, stealing emails, breaking into labs and issuing death threats are fine, but getting annoyed with people who routinely lie and misrepresent isn't.

Whenever the latest denialist hypothesis comes up - be it the sun, some sort of natural cycle, internally generated changes, cosmic rays or whatnot - you can be sure that it will be hyped as The One True Explanation by Good Honest Scientists. Critical examination of the hypothesis will be lacking, even if said hypothesis violates basic physical law or relies on a highly dubious chain of causality. On the other hand, any paper by 'the enemy' will be minutely combed through - in the case of the original MBH 98 paper, for over a decade - and the slightest error or inconsistency used to dismiss it in its entirety.

As far as fanaticism goes, I can simply point out that it isn't me starting these threads. It's the skeptic faithful who routinely pick up the latest meme from the denialosphere to post here to spread the word.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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