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November Halifax Hpi -0.1%


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HOLA441

Not quite yet. Runs out January 5th for the first ones.

Ah ok I stand corrected, I thought it was soon and posted so a couple of weeks ago and somebody replied that they had read in the paper that it had ended the week before. But it makes little difference, from January 5th at the latest, banks are going to start receiving Zilch on mortgaged properties and unless the scheme is extended indefinitely, I cannot see the banks taking any course of action other than to start the repossessions.

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HOLA442

I think there is something funny about the YoY figure.

I don't have time to look into it this morning, but it might be worth checking if the Nov 2009 figure has been revised this month...

Haven't time to check, but I think that they use 3 month average on 3 month average for the year on year (ie Avg of Sep. Oct. Nov 10 vs Avg of Sep Oct Nov 09)

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HOLA443

Anyone see this piece by a vested interest on the Beeb?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11717888

Why isnt there Eric Pebble responding to give some balance? I am sure he would have something to say about this quote......

In order to really help the country as a whole however, there has to be more innovation in the 80% to 90% loan-to-value market.

"Innovation" presumably means "Liar Loans" in this sentence.

Edited by leicestersq
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HOLA444

The fun is only just beginning.

Let's look at the actual data:

Nov09 167,032

Dec 168,763

Jan10 169,484

Feb 166,703

Mar 168,433

Apr 168,212

May 167,287

Jun 166,351

Jul 167,536

Aug 168,124

Sep 161,974

Oct 164,949

Nov 164,708

Firstly, if you remove their 3mMA calculation, the YoY fall is -1.39%.

Nov09 167,032

Nov 164,708

Secondly, notice that prices were rising in Dec09 and Jan10, so even if the next two months are flat, we should go increasing YoY negative.

Dec 168,763

Jan10 169,484

Lastly, let's look at the 3mMA:

Jan-10 168426

Feb 168317

Mar 168207

Apr 167783

May 167977

Jun 167283

Jul 167058

Aug 167337

Sep 165878

Oct 165016

Nov 163877

Basically there is a 3 month plateau from Jan-10 to Mar-10 where the MA peaked, before sliding back down, so unless the market can put in some good months in Jan-Mar-11 then the Halifax HPI will become increasingly bearish just by standing still. After that the onus will be on the further falls actually having to come to fruition to continue moving this HPI downwards.

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HOLA445

Something tells me that this -0.1% figure was heavilly seasoned. Something tells me that they are trying to manage the declines steadily to avoid a panick. In the New Year they will then revise down the last few monthly figures.

Adjustment up .88%. Last month was -0.2%.

NSA dropped from £165,275 to £163,268.

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HOLA446

ONE SIMPLE FACT:

Anyone who has bought a house in the last 12 Months....has an asset worth less than they paid for it.

Taking inflation into account...who'd want to own a house.

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

Not quite true - the true picture depends strongly on area and type of house.

However for the average person on the median income this is probably not far from the truth.

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HOLA447

Ah ok I stand corrected, I thought it was soon and posted so a couple of weeks ago and somebody replied that they had read in the paper that it had ended the week before. But it makes little difference, from January 5th at the latest, banks are going to start receiving Zilch on mortgaged properties and unless the scheme is extended indefinitely, I cannot see the banks taking any course of action other than to start the repossessions.

I would like to agree with you that the government will stop trying to defend house prices.

However, if they do let prices collapse, the banks will be in even deeper trouble.

I think the Government is forced to protect house prices and thus the banks.

They will continue to do this untill all faith in our sysytem collapses.

Many economists belive that QE can continue indefinately, I doubt this can be true.

The difficulty is that 50% drops in house prices will cause complete collapse of our banking system.

The resulting chaos is impossible for a democracy to deal with.

Economists are dangerous people.

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HOLA448
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HOLA449
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HOLA4410

Yes, but for the earliest claimants, SMI has now run out, and none of the quarter million you talk of will still be getting their mortgages paid in two years time. Once SMI stops the banks have no option but to repossess.

SMI will be extended you can bet the farm on that!

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HOLA4411
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HOLA4412

I would like to agree with you that the government will stop trying to defend house prices.

However, if they do let prices collapse, the banks will be in even deeper trouble.

I think the Government is forced to protect house prices and thus the banks.

They will continue to do this untill all faith in our sysytem collapses.

Many economists belive that QE can continue indefinately, I doubt this can be true.

The difficulty is that 50% drops in house prices will cause complete collapse of our banking system.

The resulting chaos is impossible for a democracy to deal with.

Economists are dangerous people.

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HOLA4413

Not quite true - the true picture depends strongly on area and type of house.

However for the average person on the median income this is probably not far from the truth.

That old chestnut....if bought into this mantra and paid EVEN MORE, at an above 2007 PEAK PRICE, then you are going to either loose it when IRs shoot up or be crippled financially for a decade.

It's not possible for prices in any area no keep going up when there is nothing to under-pin it.

When teh london bubble finally bursts, and burst it will, the ripples will be felt across the country for decades to come.

People should be taught simple arithmetic and finance at school.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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HOLA4414
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HOLA4415

Agree--I would only consider CA for retirement. Medical stuff is a big risk until you are 65 when the goverment cover you for 80% of catastrophic and you get top up in some States.

Health care here in the Brighton area is awful. Reactive medicine--don't come in until its too late and we will desptach you to save on costs. They don't do "preventative" care and say blood tests are a waste of time because you will get what you will get anyway. They must all be lookig forward to euthenasia coming in. Blade Runner scenario next.

You could try France if you are concerned about health RB. Great food, prices are reasonable and the French NHS more or less rebuilt my dad. Blightyy only a short hop away by ferry or Eurostar.

My dad, not expected to survive 60, thanks to the French health service he went on to 80. I'm sure the British NHS would have killed him off years ago.

However I think you are living in a part of the country where the property madness will continue perhaps for ever. The South East. Get as far away from London as possible.

Edited by Sir John Steed
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HOLA4416

I would like to agree with you that the government will stop trying to defend house prices.

However, if they do let prices collapse, the banks will be in even deeper trouble.

You are probably right that they will continue to try to prop up prices.

But can they succeed? Could the dutch government have maintained the inflated price of tulips? I don't know, and as far as I can see, nobody really knows...

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HOLA4417

Thanks Hara. Do you have a link for that data?

So the Non Seasonally Adjusted fall was -1.2%.

Via http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/research/halifax_hpi.asp you can get the "historical prices":

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/excel/2010/091210historicdata.xls

You'll have to work out the seasonal adjustment from Allmon(SA) and ALLmon(NSA) to check my figures!

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HOLA4418

That old chestnut....if bought into this mantra and paid EVEN MORE, at an above 2007 PEAK PRICE, then you are going to either loose it when IRs shoot up or be crippled financially for a decade.

It's not possible for prices in any area no keep going up when there is nothing to under-pin it.

When teh london bubble finally bursts, and burst it will, the ripples will be felt across the country for decades to come.

People should be taught simple arithmetic and finance at school.

I of course agree that prices are falling but being a bit of a pedant who likes people to be precise I was

just commenting on a factually incorrect statement. You cannot say ANYONE who bought a house a year ago is sitting on a property which is lower in value based on an average index. This is patently false. The index says something about averages and not individuals.

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HOLA4419

Sorry - does this actually run out or is it that the rate is changing? Or is it both? When does the rate change itself take effect?

The rate changed in October from 6.08% to 3.63%

from what I understand anyone on JSA claiming SMI on or after 5th Janaury 2009 had it limited to two years. These people will stop receiving the benefit in 2011.

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HOLA4420

You are probably right that they will continue to try to prop up prices.

But can they succeed? Could the dutch government have maintained the inflated price of tulips? I don't know, and as far as I can see, nobody really knows...

I do not think they will be able to succeed.

The problem is all politicians believe in their own ability to sought out other peoples problems.

The are certain they can fix this.

But they will only make things worse.

I also fear that they will continue to on this route for years not weeks.

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HOLA4421

This is actually the first month when Halifax and nationwide have both been negative.

But don't it just because of the snow of course!:

Big freeze puts chill on London's house prices

Mira Bar-Hillel, Property Correspondent

09.12.10

Property market: House prices down on last year

London's highest property prices are dipping as the temperatures plummet, experts said today.

The freezing conditions of recent weeks have pushed house prices down even beyond the normal seasonal falls for this time of the year.

This means that hardy buyers may be able to pick up a bargain in the lead-up to Christmas as the severe cold makes others stay at home.

Property professionals know that this time of year is always good for buyers looking to strike deals, with sellers anxious to move before the year end.

But Oliver Hooper, director of buying agents Huntly Hooper, added: “With the temperatures having fallen so drastically over the last few weeks, there are even fewer buyers braving the cold and doing viewings.

“Consequently those who are still looking could well be able to put in lower offers and get them accepted.”

Huntly Hooper research, based on sales prices over the last two years, shows prices dip at this time of year but that the falls are more pronounced this season.

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/money/article-23905257-big-freeze-puts-chill-on-londons-house-prices.do

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HOLA4422

The rate changed in October from 6.08% to 3.63%

from what I understand anyone on JSA claiming SMI on or after 5th Janaury 2009 had it limited to two years. These people will stop receiving the benefit in 2011.

Yes, this is going to be a much bigger factor in the HPC than many seem to realise. Once these payments stop then the banks will have absolutely no choice whatsoever other than to start repossession proceedings. Presumably these take a few months to run their course but I would expect to see repossessions rising very sharply around the middle of the year.

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HOLA4423

Is that the best they can do? Trumpet a rise over 16 months that is now LESS in real terms. That's right, the entire nominal gains since Spring 2009 have been nullified by inflation.

If they keep doing that, there's going to be a very big jump in the timescale when the HP average hits £160k...

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HOLA4424

I think there is something funny about the YoY figure.

I don't have time to look into it this morning, but it might be worth checking if the Nov 2009 figure has been revised this month...

PEER REVIEW ALERT.

I'm pretty sure Halifax have cooked the books this month, by an abnomal revision of the Nov 2009 index figure.

When the Sept 2010 report came out, I saved the historical data table. Apparently I can't upload that file on this board, but here is a link to the Credit Crunch forum, where I have uploaded it: http://www.creditcru...post__p__134112

It looks to me as if the Nov 2009 index figure was then shown as 542, but the historical data table released today report shows the Nov 2009 index figure at 540.6.

This revision avoids a much more horrific YoY fall than their reported -0.7%.

They have also revised the Oct figure, which will affect their 3M on 3M YoY.

So, anybody here fancy trying to prove me wrong?

Edited by Timm
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HOLA4425

Yes, but for the earliest claimants, SMI has now run out, and none of the quarter million you talk of will still be getting their mortgages paid in two years time.

Wrong.. if you're retired, and over 100,000 of them are, it gets paid for ever

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