F T : A Widening Divide In Britain’S House Prices

[Tired of Waiting]

FT article, on the "widening divide" in Britain’s House Prices.

( Apologies if it has been posted before. )

But is it sustainable? I don't think so. Without FTBs the top of the market should be undermined, at some point. The only question is the timing of it.

And do we care? I don't need a cheap "top". A decent terrace will do.

UK house prices

Published: December 3 2010 09:57 | Last updated: December 4 2010 16:16

A widening divide in Britain’s economy can be neatly visualised by looking at two of the country’s house price indices. The latest Nationwide data shows that the average house price has dropped to about £163,000, a nine-month low. Meanwhile, LSL Acadametrics says prices are not only one-third more expensive, but have grown consistently since April.

One of the main differences between the figures is that LSL Acadametrics includes cash sales whereas Nationwide reviews only a sample of its own mortgage customers. As about one-quarter of house transactions are paid for in cash, and these tend to be at the premium end of the market, they inflate broader prices.

Thus the widening divergence between the two indices neatly highlights the increased gap between the haves and the have-nots. For those still in work and with a variable mortgage, life may never have been better. They now pay about half the interest they did three years ago; the Bank of England’s persistence with near-zero interest rates means that, in spite of ominous inflationary indicators, this state of play looks set to continue.

Indeed, if the 108 counties and districts in England and Wales are sorted from highest average house price to lowest, the top quartile – mainly in the south-east – have experienced price rises of 11 per cent in the last year whereas prices in the bottom quartile – mainly in the north – have grown less than 2 per cent.

For those not able to afford a loan or who live in low-price, low-growth regions, the outlook remains bleak. Britons outside the business-rich south-east rely heavily on the government for employment. The upcoming swathe of public sector redundancies will hurt. House prices always track wealth. It appears that Britain’s also track a growing division in society.

Edit to add link: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/ab28477c-febf-11df-ae87-00144feab49a.html#axzz17XPWZhCM

Edited December 8, 2010 by Tired of Waiting

[Realistbear]

FT article, on the "widening divide" in Britain’s House Prices.

( Apologies if it has been posted before. )

But is it sustainable? I don't think so. Without FTBs the top of the market should be undermined, at some point. The only question is the timing of it.

And do we care? I don't need a cheap "top". A decent terrace will do.

Edit to add link: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/ab28477c-febf-11df-ae87-00144feab49a.html#axzz17XPWZhCM

Ft says widening the gap between have and have nots. EXACTLY what I have been saying and the reason for my increasing cynacism about our HPC. As I see it, the Landlord classes will buy up any cheaper housing and the priced out will always be priced out.

This country sucks royally.

You watch, Masked Tulip will be going "Neither" next. Oh, hang on a minute.....................

Edited December 8, 2010 by Realistbear

[Tired of Waiting]

Ft says widening the gap between have and have nots. EXACTLY what I have been saying and the reason for my increasing cynacism about our HPC. As I see it, the Landlord classes will buy up any cheaper housing and the priced out will always be priced out.

This country sucks royally.

You watch, Masked Tulip will be going "Neither" next. Oh, hang on a minute.....................

But prices are already falling RB, and have been for a few months already. I really don't get your timing.

Was it that book you mentioned? Was it about expectations?

[Realistbear]

But prices are already falling RB, and have been for a few months already. I really don't get your timing.

Was it that book you mentioned? Was it about expectations?

Prices are indeed falling and I would say they are off peak prices by about 10-12% around here. I also believe they may drop another 10%. But in the real world that is nothing given the previous decade of madness. They wouod have to drop 60-70% in order to have a decent earnings to price ratio and the partnership between the Banksetrs and government will make sure that never happens.

A nice house around here still costs well north of £300k (probably closer to £400k at the peak). A cheap flat will set you back about £189k but you wouldn't want to live in it LT. I suppose much is determined by what you are used to and what your EXPECTATIONS are. I am constantly dissapoined because my expectations are probably too high!

The Shack was a huge bestseller a year or so ago and it dealt with how we can avoid dissapointment if we avoid placing expectations on things. Rather, to live in "expectancy" which maintyains optimism and avoids depression. Most things dissappontment and people tend to have high expectations.

Anything less than 60% down from the peak is a dissapointment in my view. What we may get is 20% down which is a huge disappointment and still leaves most of us priced out or having to lower our EXPECTATIONS to a dump.

[rantnrave]

UK house prices

Published: December 3 2010 09:57 | Last updated: December 4 2010 16:16

For those not able to afford a loan or who live in low-price, low-growth regions, the outlook remains bleak. Britons outside the business-rich south-east rely heavily on the government for employment. The upcoming swathe of public sector redundancies will hurt. House prices always track wealth. It appears that Britain’s also track a growing division in society.

House prices always track wealth? I can think of at least one decade in very recent memory when they didn't! Who writes this guff?

[The Masked Tulip]

You watch, Masked Tulip will be going "Neither" next. Oh, hang on a minute.....................

I started dressing on the other side months ago.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but I would have been better off buying back in May/April time.

There was a better choice of housing on the market in my area then and as there has been no signs of realistic drops I may as well have jumped in, saved on the rent of the past 6 - 7 months and got on with my life.

All that has happened in the meantime is that I have paid rent - which I doubt I could negotiate off asking price - and numerous houses that I have liked the look of have sold.

They only thing that will bring a UK housing crash now is a massive rise in IRs - can't see it happening.

I held out for the election in the belief that the new Govt would change things but they are carrying on as before - if anything, they are worse IMPO. All this pre-election talk about job cuts in the Public Sector is mostly just talk. Look at my town - two-thirds of the workforce is in the Public Sector in a nation where 69% of the economy is dependent on the Public Sector... and what has happened since May 5th? Nothing. Nadda. Not a thing.

Loads of talk of massive Public Sector cuts but all the Public Sector workers I know tell me that there are no internal signs of cuts other than hiring feezes. They are carrying on spending whilst I am saving, they are paying less on their mortgages in Swansea West than I am on rent.

Have to start being realistic people.

[northwestsmith2]

London will be hit hard by the public sector cuts, the London working age population have the second highest % employed by the state I think, after Northern Ireland.

South East as a whole must be even worse, along with high unemployment , inactivity and the most subsidised transport network. London needs to be allowed to go

on it's own so the North can get a fair deal.

[headrow]

Ft says widening the gap between have and have nots.

But surely if you're coming up to retirement then you must be one of the 'haves'?

You've had some glorious opportunities to sort yourself out housing wise in the past 40 years.

[Democorruptcy]

There was a better choice of housing on the market in my area then and as there has been no signs of realistic drops I may as well have jumped in, saved on the rent of the past 6 - 7 months and got on with my life.

Oh dear.... it's a sad day when even TMT cannot get on with his life unless owning a house.

Presumably you have cash earning some interest to offset the cost of renting?

[Realistbear]

I started dressing on the other side months ago.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but I would have been better off buying back in May/April time.

There was a better choice of housing on the market in my area then and as there has been no signs of realistic drops I may as well have jumped in, saved on the rent of the past 6 - 7 months and got on with my life.

All that has happened in the meantime is that I have paid rent - which I doubt I could negotiate off asking price - and numerous houses that I have liked the look of have sold.

They only thing that will bring a UK housing crash now is a massive rise in IRs - can't see it happening.

I held out for the election in the belief that the new Govt would change things but they are carrying on as before - if anything, they are worse IMPO. All this pre-election talk about job cuts in the Public Sector is mostly just talk. Look at my town - two-thirds of the workforce is in the Public Sector in a nation where 69% of the economy is dependent on the Public Sector... and what has happened since May 5th? Nothing. Nadda. Not a thing.

Loads of talk of massive Public Sector cuts but all the Public Sector workers I know tell me that there are no internal signs of cuts other than hiring feezes. They are carrying on spending whilst I am saving, they are paying less on their mortgages in Swansea West than I am on rent.

Have to start being realistic people.

Job cuts? What jobs cuts!! I know what you mean. Talking to a friend in the NHS today and she said that they have cut a load of jobs in her office but they haven't lost their jobs--they have been shuffled and sent to another NHS office. Seems that the managers just have to show they have let a few go and do not have to mention the fact that they have taken a few on. What a fraud.

There is NO way the government will cut any jobs--it would set off a HPC and cost more than the consequences of unemployed pen pushers.

Edited December 8, 2010 by Realistbear

[The Masked Tulip]

Oh dear.... it's a sad day when even TMT cannot get on with his life unless owning a house.

Presumably you have cash earning some interest to offset the cost of renting?

You know what I mean.

[rantnrave]

Presumably you have cash earning some interest to offset the cost of renting?

Interest... Ah yes, I remember that. Fond memories.

[Tired of Waiting]

Prices are indeed falling and I would say they are off peak prices by about 10-12% around here. I also believe they may drop another 10%. But in the real world that is nothing given the previous decade of madness. They wouod have to drop 60-70% in order to have a decent earnings to price ratio and the partnership between the Banksetrs and government will make sure that never happens.

A nice house around here still costs well north of £300k (probably closer to £400k at the peak). A cheap flat will set you back about £189k but you wouldn't want to live in it LT. I suppose much is determined by what you are used to and what your EXPECTATIONS are. I am constantly dissapoined because my expectations are probably too high!

The Shack was a huge bestseller a year or so ago and it dealt with how we can avoid dissapointment if we avoid placing expectations on things. Rather, to live in "expectancy" which maintyains optimism and avoids depression. Most things dissappontment and people tend to have high expectations.

Anything less than 60% down from the peak is a dissapointment in my view. What we may get is 20% down which is a huge disappointment and still leaves most of us priced out or having to lower our EXPECTATIONS to a dump.

My best guestimate today is that real prices will fall by around 25% in the next 3 years, nominal prices falling by around 15%, and some 10% inflation. Not great, but enough. Better than nothing.

[Tired of Waiting]

(...)

Have to start being realistic people.

We all agree that in the spring 2011 we will have loads of new sellers on the market. The question is if the banks we will be back, lending enough for prices to remain at current levels. Who here thinks the banks will do that?

[dances with sheeple]

We all agree that in the spring 2011 we will have loads of new sellers on the market. The question is if the banks we will be back, lending enough for prices to remain at current levels. Who here thinks the banks will do that?

Not a chance, there will be a Eurozone implosion tightening lending even further, we are going back to the 70`s my friends, sheeple who sell fags in WH Smith live in cheap council houses, end of, they don`t go abroad four times a year and drive jeeps. Anyone relying on property for a payout is seriously screwed.

[headrow]

Not a chance, there will be a Eurozone implosion tightening lending even further, we are going back to the 70`s my friends, sheeple who sell fags in WH Smith live in cheap council houses, end of, they don`t go abroad four times a year and drive jeeps. Anyone relying on property for a payout is seriously screwed.

What a ******ing snob you are.

[dances with sheeple]

What a ******ing snob you are.

I take it you are joking. I grew up in council houses and we knew our limitations, that is why I am debt free and sweat free just now,

[Tired of Waiting]

Not a chance, there will be a Eurozone implosion tightening lending even further, we are going back to the 70`s my friends, sheeple who sell fags in WH Smith live in cheap council houses, end of, they don`t go abroad four times a year and drive jeeps. Anyone relying on property for a payout is seriously screwed.

Welcome back DWS! Where have you been? Something really weird happened here in these past few weeks, despite HP falls, TMT and RB going "neither". Very strange.

[winkie]

Ft says widening the gap between have and have nots. EXACTLY what I have been saying and the reason for my increasing cynacism about our HPC. As I see it, the Landlord classes will buy up any cheaper housing and the priced out will always be priced out.

This country sucks royally.

You watch, Masked Tulip will be going "Neither" next. Oh, hang on a minute.....................

Whats new?.....never has everybody been able to buy their own property....going back in history only the few could buy land and property, it is only in recent years that people have thought it is only right that they should buy at any means possible...no job, no income, no deposit, no hope in repaying.....easy credit and lax lending has pushed the prices beyond the reach of the people that have the job, have an income, and have a deposit.

Too many that should not have bought on interest only have priced out those who could have bought on a repayment.....if only things had been different.

[dances with sheeple]

Ft says widening the gap between have and have nots. EXACTLY what I have been saying and the reason for my increasing cynacism about our HPC. As I see it, the Landlord classes will buy up any cheaper housing and the priced out will always be priced out.

This country sucks royally.

You watch, Masked Tulip will be going "Neither" next. Oh, hang on a minute.....................

Three things off the top of my head that say no to that are, people going back to parents, people taking in lodgers, and there not being enough really thick really rich people who want to be landlords.

[winkie]

Three things off the top of my head that say no to that are, people going back to parents, people taking in lodgers, and there not being enough really thick really rich people who want to be landlords.

Can't disagree with that.

[Traktion]

Here in NI, I noticed that the higher prices were more sticky at first, but now they're tumbling quicker than those at the bottom. Maybe the rest of the UK will follow a similar trend?

[dances with sheeple]

Welcome back DWS! Where have you been? Something really weird happened here in these past few weeks, despite HP falls, TMT and RB going "neither". Very strange.

Lost my desire to post so much, seems like all the arguments have been done to death but still here we are. Of course the vi`s and media want us to think like this, but there is no more money and there will be a crash it`s just question of when. I think something bad is brewing, big financial collapse, even war maybe?(sounding like famous ex-poster here) Much as I like TMT`s posts, I think he/she has a property VI, RB is just getting bored IMO.

[Democorruptcy]

FT article, on the "widening divide" in Britain’s House Prices.

( Apologies if it has been posted before. )

But is it sustainable? I don't think so. Without FTBs the top of the market should be undermined, at some point. The only question is the timing of it.

And do we care? I don't need a cheap "top". A decent terrace will do.

Reminded me of that thread recently that showed that sales at the bottom of the market had gone down but sales at the top were increasing. Can't remember which thread it was.

[Tired of Waiting]

Reminded me of that thread recently that showed that sales at the bottom of the market had gone down but sales at the top were increasing. Can't remember which thread it was.

You mean volumes? Yes, I remember. I re-posted the main table in the Charts Thread. It is in the last page there.