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Realistbear

December C B I Factory Orders Index Hits 2-Year High

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/December-CBI-factory-orders-reuters_molt-3770450912.html?x=0

December CBI factory orders index hits 2-year high
11:01, Wednesday 8 December 2010
LONDON (
Reuters
) - British factory orders looked to be their strongest in two and a half years after a surge in overseas demand to a 15-year high, the CBI's December industrial trends survey showed on Wednesday.
The Confederation of British Industry survey's total order book balance unexpectedly jumped this month to -3 from -15 in November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) , well above economists' forecasts of a reading of -13 and its highest since June 2008.
The export order book balance also rose to +4 from -7, its
highest since August 1995
. The indexes are normally in negative territory.

Recovereh may be here? I am looking hard but cannot see anything that might cause our grossly overpriced houses to crash from here. A crash being at least 20% down from this point.

I won't call myself a bull but I am a deeply disappointed bear.

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So what sort of things are prospering in UK export? What is the rest of the world demanding to buy from us as such a leaping rate. I'm asking because I don't know. Which countries are leading the demand to import from the UK as well?

David Cameron's recent trip to Beijing on the UK's biggest trade mission in over two centuries yielded notably few concrete results, with Chinese diplomats bluntly saying that there was very little that China wished to buy from the UK.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8183395/Wikileaks-UK-talks-with-China-a-bloody-disaster.html

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/December-CBI-factory-orders-reuters_molt-3770450912.html?x=0

December CBI factory orders index hits 2-year high
11:01, Wednesday 8 December 2010
LONDON (
Reuters
) - British factory orders looked to be their strongest in two and a half years after a surge in overseas demand to a 15-year high, the CBI's December industrial trends survey showed on Wednesday.
The Confederation of British Industry survey's total order book balance unexpectedly jumped this month to -3 from -15 in November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) , well above economists' forecasts of a reading of -13 and its highest since June 2008.
The export order book balance also rose to +4 from -7, its
highest since August 1995
. The indexes are normally in negative territory.

Recovereh may be here? I am looking hard but cannot see anything that might cause our grossly overpriced houses to crash from here. A crash being at least 20% down from this point.

I won't call myself a bull but I am a deeply disappointed bear.

why dont you look at interest rates and wonder how long they can fleece savers and markets into pressing them low.

the lowest in 400 years...

to be fair. id bank on predictions from an actual real polar bear in glasses than anything put up here form some official source.

YOU CANT TRIPLE SHELTER COSTS FOR ONE GENERATION AND NOT EXPECT ANY BAD EFFECTS

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So what sort of things are prospering in UK export? What is the rest of the world demanding to buy from us as such a leaping rate. I'm asking because I don't know. Which countries are leading the demand to import from the UK as well?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8183395/Wikileaks-UK-talks-with-China-a-bloody-disaster.html

We are exporting aerospace shit (one RR engine being equivalent to 300 tons of Chinese tat), high end cars, luxury goods, widgets by the ton, weapons, Nissans, Hondas, Ford and Vauxhall engines, medical equipment, drugs (GSK are huge), tech............................

But our biggest industry, money changing, is growing which is why the City is on a full hiring binge and property may follow.

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When RB gets the bit between his teeth this could get painful. :lol:

All we need is for Eric to tell us that LENDING HAS BEEN CLEANED UP.for the next 10 years.

I tell ye, if Eric starts to wobble its all over.

I am just calling it like I am seeing it and I cannot find a shred of evidence to support the notion that house prices are going to crash from here (i.e. at least 20% down).

The only comfort I get is that the saying about the last bear turnng bull signals the beginning of the crash. I don't think I am the last bear as Eric is still going strong. I think. :blink:

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All this is more pressure on the BOE to raise rates.

And as soon as they do the falls will accelerate.

Yep, this is the point. When we have strong growth interest rates will rise and this is when house prices will fall.

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All this is more pressure on the BOE to raise rates.

And as soon as they do the falls will accelerate.

Once growth momentum is a lock and jobs return a few rises in IR will not have any impact. The BTL brigade will support the lower end as rents rise and the rich don't do IR anyway.

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Once growth momentum is a lock and jobs return a few rises in IR will not have any impact. The BTL brigade will support the lower end as rents rise and the rich don't do IR anyway.

Doubt we'll see anything other than a couple of token gesture rate rises over the next 10 years myself. People can barely pay back what they owe at the current rate, including the government. The housing market is just another QE-fed zombie much like everything else these days.

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/December-CBI-factory-orders-reuters_molt-3770450912.html?x=0

December CBI factory orders index hits 2-year high
11:01, Wednesday 8 December 2010
LONDON (
Reuters
) - British factory orders looked to be their strongest in two and a half years after a surge in overseas demand to a 15-year high, the CBI's December industrial trends survey showed on Wednesday.
The Confederation of British Industry survey's total order book balance unexpectedly jumped this month to -3 from -15 in November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) , well above economists' forecasts of a reading of -13 and its highest since June 2008.
The export order book balance also rose to +4 from -7, its
highest since August 1995
. The indexes are normally in negative territory.

Recovereh may be here? I am looking hard but cannot see anything that might cause our grossly overpriced houses to crash from here. A crash being at least 20% down from this point.

I won't call myself a bull but I am a deeply disappointed bear.

GET A GRIP RB!

"Recovereh may be here?"

In manufacturing - yes, but manufacturing is only about 22% of our economy in GDP terms.

From CIA Factbook:-

Labour force by occupation:

agriculture: 1.4%

industry: 18.2%

services: 80.4% (2006 est.)

Are there any signs that manufactures are taking on more staff, or are they coping with less to maximize profit margins?

Do you see the service industry dragging us out of this mess?

Will the availability of mortgages become easier in the near term?

Where do you think we are on this curve?

bubble-lifecycle.gif.jpg

post-7465-0-38780200-1291814603_thumb.jpg

Edited by trekking

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Where do you think we are on this curve?

bubble-lifecycle.gif.jpg

Well just a couple of weeks or so ago we seemed to be definitely in the fear stage but now it seems oops back to normal but Ireland at the IMF, student riots, US fraudclosure and now some MBS not even having mortgages in them, the cuts haven't been applied yet, all the problems in europe and etc. Actually the very very bad news is starting to become normal and feel normal - not the sign of a bull market. Tthe news has gone from bank failure to nation failure so in reality it's getting worse and worse.

The news on Ireland is a :o:o:o event but instead it's being presented more like :huh:

They can't manage all the news but I suspect there is a fair amount of news management and slanting going on especially in the approach to Christmas when a lot of retailers etc make a high proportion of their money so there's always a level of Christmas hype.

Most years the news turns around in the new year often contradicting what was being said in the approach to Christmas so we could well be back to the fear stage at that point.

Edited by billybong

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/December-CBI-factory-orders-reuters_molt-3770450912.html?x=0

December CBI factory orders index hits 2-year high
11:01, Wednesday 8 December 2010
LONDON (
Reuters
) - British factory orders looked to be their strongest in two and a half years after a surge in overseas demand to a 15-year high, the CBI's December industrial trends survey showed on Wednesday.
The Confederation of British Industry survey's total order book balance unexpectedly jumped this month to -3 from -15 in November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) , well above economists' forecasts of a reading of -13 and its highest since June 2008.
The export order book balance also rose to +4 from -7, its
highest since August 1995
. The indexes are normally in negative territory.

Recovereh may be here? I am looking hard but cannot see anything that might cause our grossly overpriced houses to crash from here. A crash being at least 20% down from this point.

I won't call myself a bull but I am a deeply disappointed bear.

Is every post you mnake from now on going to include something about your change of thinking regarding house prices?

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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