Things Just Seem Wrong

[Panda]

In all my years on here, things just seem wrong, RB posting bullish after bullish statements, has he been interfered with in some way. Most of the old heads gone, injin gone, it just seems the last bears have all but turned bull. Is it all over, has the site had its day, will i rent till i die, will wages stagnate, house prices rise forever, and we just end up going back to the Victorian times, spare change madam..................................

[The Masked Tulip]

I think he is trying reverse psychology - in recent weeks whenever he posted a bearish article on gold, the markets, little green men, whatever, within days if not hours whatever RB was bearish about soared.

He had somehow become linked in as some kind of Cosmic contra-indicator.

[NotMyHouse]

They do say that a market will only crash when the last bear turns bull. And RB is about as "last bear" as they come in my book. So I think it's a good sign. Mind you, it didn't stop McTwattish and Sibbers from wetting themselves on MSE.

Edited December 8, 2010 by NotMyHouse

[Caveat Mortgagor]

In all my years on here, things just seem wrong, RB posting bullish after bullish statements, has he been interfered with in some way.

RB seems to have gone bipolar.

Last week there were two threads about predicted house price drops.

On this thread he suggested a 10% drop in prices would need a "trigger" to kick it all off........ http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=155460&st=0

On this thread he started a mere 3 hours later, he had to agree that a 20% drop in prices is likely......... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=155481

Edited December 8, 2010 by Caveat Mortgagor

[pilchardthecat]

Injin has gone?

[Lepista]

RB just blows with the wind.

Where he is useful here is that he does tend to scour other sites for interesting articles to repost here.

If you ignore his own words, he is quite useful as a newshound.

[Van]

RB is the best contrarian indicator you can get. Wouldn't surprise me if he's just bought a house.

Now he's waving the white flag, sit back and watch as the HPC really starts to roll.

[sugarflux]

They do say that a market will only crash when the last bear turns bull. And RB is about as "last bear" as they come in my book. So I think it's a good sign. Mind you, it didn't stop McTwattish and Sibbers from wetting themselves on MSE.

To be fair RB was saying that he is not "bullish" about UK property but rather he changed to 'neither'. As I recall he is planning now on jumping ship from the UK and moving to the US where he his 'bull' side is coming through. He did state he was definitely still bear when it comes to UK property....

~S~

[SarahBell]

"Knowingly entering a Ponzi scheme, even at the last round of the scheme, can be rational economically if there is a reasonable expectation that government or other deep pockets will bail out those participating in the Ponzi scheme.[2]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme

[Toto deVeer]

He had somehow become linked in as some kind of Cosmic contra-indicator.

I too know that feeling...

[R K]

Remember, there's no such thing though as a bipolar bull.

Very good.

[Killer Bunny]

it just seems the last bears have all but turned bull.

Not me! I'm as bearish as ever, more so perhaps.

Except on commodities. Medium to long terms - going to the moon, as I am wont to say.

[Nationalist]

So RealistBear is a shoeshine boy!

[Reluctant Heretic]

Watching paint dry is enough to suck the life out of the heartiest soul and that is exactly what watching the UK housing market is like right now. The downward curve is there but its very flat at the moment and dull. I love HPC but people are right (IMO) to stop watching house prices for a bit, at least on a national scale, and turn their attention to the broader issues such as money supply, inflation, peak oil, interest rates etc.

[eric pebble]

I love HPC but people are right (IMO) to stop watching house prices for a bit, at least on a national scale, and turn their attention to the broader issues such as money supply, inflation, peak oil, interest rates etc.

...... and LIAR LOANS!!

[@contradevian]

I think RB is getting a little p*ssed that he keeps getting moved around, because the houses he rents, sell and he can't find a decent priced quality rental in his area.

Of course as soon as RB buys....

TIMBER!!!

Edited December 8, 2010 by Sir John Steed

[headrow]

...... and LIAR LOANS!!

I know somebody who has just walked away from her house and mortgage debt.

Bought for 115k 2 years ago. Just had it valued at 95k. She instantly went back to live with her parents.

Edited December 8, 2010 by headrow

[The Masked Tulip]

Watching paint dry is enough to suck the life out of the heartiest soul and that is exactly what watching the UK housing market is like right now. The downward curve is there but its very flat at the moment and dull. I love HPC but people are right (IMO) to stop watching house prices for a bit, at least on a national scale, and turn their attention to the broader issues such as money supply, inflation, peak oil, interest rates etc.

+1

[Giordano Bruno]

Injin has gone?

I believe the mods were in dispute with injin over his tendency to go keep going back to his thesis of money being imaginary, or just created by banks by entering numbers into a person's bank account.

I think injin should write a book of his thesis. He would need other people to read it first and give him fair criticism, at least regarding repetition and ability to hold reader's attention. He could publish it as a kindle book. I believe anyone can do that mainly by uploading it to amazon in the correct way.

[rantnrave]

Watching paint dry is enough to suck the life out of the heartiest soul and that is exactly what watching the UK housing market is like right now. The downward curve is there but its very flat at the moment and dull. I love HPC but people are right (IMO) to stop watching house prices for a bit, at least on a national scale, and turn their attention to the broader issues such as money supply, inflation, peak oil, interest rates etc.

At present, IRs have to be even more dull than HPs to watch!

[888]

In all my years on here, things just seem wrong, RB posting bullish after bullish statements, has he been interfered with in some way. Most of the old heads gone, injin gone, it just seems the last bears have all but turned bull. Is it all over, has the site had its day, will i rent till i die, will wages stagnate, house prices rise forever, and we just end up going back to the Victorian times, spare change madam..................................

I have a house (but I didn't pay a silly price for it), and I think the crash is yet to come. Hang in there for 18-24 months.

[plummet expert]

To be fair RB was saying that he is not "bullish" about UK property but rather he changed to 'neither'. As I recall he is planning now on jumping ship from the UK and moving to the US where he his 'bull' side is coming through. He did state he was definitely still bear when it comes to UK property....

~S~

RB has been a bit contrary of late. But if we are talking about the USA, I would say that there cannot be much further to fall. Some of their property looks very cheap and compared to here, extraordinarily cheap. If I was in the USA then I would now change from bear to bull, despite news items still saying more falls are to come. 5 bed homes with swimming pools for under £100k sounds like near bottom to me. There may be more falls in the USA for some places, but it will all recover over time. They probably had the worst sub-prime lending.

When will I feel that about the UK? It is still a bubble only just behind Canada and Australia. So Certainly not now. IR's are too low and will moderate any prices as they come back to normal, whether they be rising or falling in the medium term. The cuts have largely just been announcements and the effects are going to be felt over the coming year or so. The deficit is not actually being cut by enough to stop Britain continuing to add to its over £1 trillion national debt and this will ned to be serviced - ever more difficult and expensive as time plods on. The special liquidity programme is ending and cannot be renewed by any serious govt. There will be shortage of cash to refinance the banks. The FSA is bringing forth very tight lending criteria, which we are told means that 50% of those who have been getting mortgages in the last 2 years would not have had them! The ending of IO mortgages and all these factors will simply force down prices - maybe gradually, but nevertheless it will do so. Mortgage lending is faltering almost monthly to low levels. Inflation is beginning to look dangerous and IR's must start to rise in 2011. Strong rises may be very dangerous to house prices, but may surprise us by happening over the next 12 months. When we look back we will recognise that IR;s should be rising now and that by putting it off the situation will be much worse later. Always is.

[nice tuna sandwich]

RB has been a bit contrary of late. But if we are talking about the USA, I would say that there cannot be much further to fall. Some of their property looks very cheap and compared to here, extraordinarily cheap. If I was in the USA then I would now change from bear to bull, despite news items still saying more falls are to come. 5 bed homes with swimming pools for under £100k sounds like near bottom to me. There may be more falls in the USA for some places, but it will all recover over time. They probably had the worst sub-prime lending.

When will I feel that about the UK? It is still a bubble only just behind Canada and Australia. So Certainly not now. IR's are too low and will moderate any prices as they come back to normal, whether they be rising or falling in the medium term. The cuts have largely just been announcements and the effects are going to be felt over the coming year or so. The deficit is not actually being cut by enough to stop Britain continuing to add to its over £1 trillion national debt and this will ned to be serviced - ever more difficult and expensive as time plods on. The special liquidity programme is ending and cannot be renewed by any serious govt. There will be shortage of cash to refinance the banks. The FSA is bringing forth very tight lending criteria, which we are told means that 50% of those who have been getting mortgages in the last 2 years would not have had them! The ending of IO mortgages and all these factors will simply force down prices - maybe gradually, but nevertheless it will do so. Mortgage lending is faltering almost monthly to low levels. Inflation is beginning to look dangerous and IR's must start to rise in 2011. Strong rises may be very dangerous to house prices, but may surprise us by happening over the next 12 months. When we look back we will recognise that IR;s should be rising now and that by putting it off the situation will be much worse later. Always is.

Got a link to one of those 5 bed homes with a pool Plummet Expert?

[Reluctant Heretic]

...... and LIAR LOANS!!

Yes Eric and LIAR LOANS

(I used to think you were mad but now I think you were right all along).

[neil324]

When he buys somewhere that's when he backing up what he says.