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Confidence Soars As U K Exports Surge

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/British-companies-confidence-tele-1344034557.html;_ylt=AujkWikvaQIJRugLLCiW5PXSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4cGMzdjJhBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNicml0aXNoY29tcGE-?x=0

British companies' confidence in exports rises
Sean "Shawn" O'Hare, On Wednesday 8 December 2010, 9:17
Confidence (ZCONFIDE.BO - news) grows for the year ahead as export trade makes its biggest contibution in two years and boosts the UK's economic growth.

Weathered the storm?

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/British-companies-confidence-tele-1344034557.html;_ylt=AujkWikvaQIJRugLLCiW5PXSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4cGMzdjJhBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNicml0aXNoY29tcGE-?x=0

British companies' confidence in exports rises
Sean "Shawn" O'Hare, On Wednesday 8 December 2010, 9:17
Confidence (ZCONFIDE.BO - news) grows for the year ahead as export trade makes its biggest contibution in two years and boosts the UK's economic growth.

Weathered the storm?

The UK economy is now into its second year of growth since the last recession ended

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not the best backdrop for a real hpc.

So where are all the new high paying jobs?

Does this mean there wont be mass redundancies in the public service anymore?

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Why not? The last HPC happened after the recession, not during it.

Are HPs the ultimate lagging index of a recession? First the GDP figures go negative, then the job losses become evident six months on and that forces hps down even further into the future...?

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not the best backdrop for a real hpc.

Au contraire: Look at the bar chart again you can see that the UK had uninterrupted GDP growth from about mid-1992 onwards.

Meanwhile, House Prices fell in nominal terms for another 3.5 years after mid-1992 (Nationwide) and in real terms for another 5 years.

So it is that as the UK economy continues its expansion, house prices will continue to fall....not by causation, but simply because they are overvalued. We are only halfway through the crash. Do you honestly think with our current inflation rate that we'll see QE2 in the UK? Not a chance. As QE1 gets reversed and bank rates rise, it will be carnage....in the meantime we are currently seeing nominal falls regardless. How can that be with the bank rate at 0.5%? Answer: Because there is absolutely nothing supporting the UK housing market. Nothing.

Edited by Hat

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Au contraire: Look at the bar chart again you can see that the UK had uninterrupted GDP growth from about mid-1992 onwards.

Meanwhile, House Prices fell in nominal terms for another 3.5 years after mid-1992 (Nationwide) and in real terms for another 5 years.

So it is that as the UK economy continues its expansion, house prices will continue to fall....not by causation, but simply because they are overvalued. We are only halfway through the crash. Do you honestly think with our current inflation rate that we'll see QE2 in the UK? Not a chance. As QE1 gets reversed and bank rates rise, it will be carnage....in the meantime we are currently seeing nominal falls regardless. How can that be with the bank rate at 0.5%? Answer: Because there is absolutely nothing supporting the UK housing market. Nothing.

Surely the 0.5% base rate coupled with low unemployment is what is supporting house prices.

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Surely the 0.5% base rate coupled with low unemployment is what is supporting house prices.

Idiocy is what's supporting them. The moronic, brainless attitude that high prices are good has not gone away. Everything else is a symptom of that.

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Idiocy is what's supporting them. The moronic, brainless attitude that high prices are good has not gone away. Everything else is a symptom of that.

its like a huge ship taking a turn. takes ages.

this mindset is firmly rooted in the uk population. recent anecdotal was with parents neighbor. my parents were trying to sell. the next door neighbor asked how much, i said "how much to do you think ?" she said £150k (bought for £55k) so i said the agents said 120k.

her jaw dropped. she expected them to go up 10k a year EVERY year from here on in.

typical dumbass uk thinking. wages static or falling. house prices up up and away still.?? surely ??

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And yet they are still falling...

I live in east yorkshire and after the first heavy fals they have just stagnated , no rises , no more falls , no forced sellers.

Other areas might still be showing falls but where i live you can buy a two bed terrace for 50k and get 450pcm rent. The pro landlords are quite happy to BTL at these prices. In effect a fllor has being placed under the market by them. The better stock of houses are trading about 20% less than 2007 prices , well the ones that manage to find a buyer anyway.

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Judging by RB`s latest offerings,i would have thought he might have chosen "bull" status, rather than sitting on that fence.

i cant see all the growth myself. its dire in my neck of the woods. strange times. i hear one thing and see another.

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i cant see all the growth myself. its dire in my neck of the woods. strange times. i hear one thing and see another.

I've had a look round a few flats in Salford lately. I'd say there has been a good 50% crash in prices there.

Edited by headrow

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I've had a look round a few flats in Salford lately. I'd say there has been a good 50% crash in prices there.

if you take a salford terrace in 2001 they were 20k-30k each.

then by 2005 they were 80-100k each.

now they are 60k-70k each.

wages are static and have been for 10 years.

thats a still a doubling / tripling of house prices,

not a 50% crash. and thats with historic low interest rates.

the fµcking games up, and scary is the fact theres nothing left in the pot.

what a farce. now the news feeds lie after lie.

Edited by right_freds_dead

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From the Yahoo news item:

The Travelex Confidence Index rose eight points during November (Berlin: NBXB.BE - news) to stand at 112, with 70 per cent of exporters saying they felt confident about current trade conditions. This was its highest level in eight months.

From the Travelex website:

What is the Travelex Confidence Index (TCI)?

Developed in partnership with TNS-RI, the index has been running since March 2010 and will be released monthly.

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Are HPs the ultimate lagging index of a recession? First the GDP figures go negative, then the job losses become evident six months on and that forces hps down even further into the future...?

In the previous crash, house prices actually started falling in 1989 which was before the 90s recession.

UK property prices are determined in the long term by affordability. As over the long term the supply of housing slowly rises in line with demand ie housebuilding matches household formation, long term affordability is determined by long term household income multiples. Currently house prices are way out of kilter with incomes. In the medium term therefore they will fall.

In the short run, housing demand and supply are largely irrelevant as households grow slowly (ie roughly in line with population growth and cultural shifts) although an overhang of new buildings from the previous boom can be a big factor. However affordability is still key. Unemployment is a big factor weighing on affordability as you correctly point out. More important still in the short run is the cost of servicing debt for householders remaining in employment ie the largest sector of the housing market. And this is where the main part of the correction's causation will arise from. Right now, we have near zero interest rates. When rates rise, then we will see the big falls as people on the margin run into insolvency.

And the best part is (for anyone looking to buy cheap property), there is nothing that the government/BOE can do to stop it (apart that is from abandoning the inflation target).

Finally, we have psychology. This is what causes the market to undershoot. As the crash continues, more and more people will delay buying thus exacerbating the crash. This is the stage we are entering now. Expect large nominal falls over the next year.

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i cant see all the growth myself. its dire in my neck of the woods. strange times. i hear one thing and see another.

Trust your eyes...

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I live in east yorkshire and after the first heavy fals they have just stagnated , no rises , no more falls , no forced sellers.

Other areas might still be showing falls but where i live you can buy a two bed terrace for 50k and get 450pcm rent. The pro landlords are quite happy to BTL at these prices. In effect a fllor has being placed under the market by them. The better stock of houses are trading about 20% less than 2007 prices , well the ones that manage to find a buyer anyway.

Pro Landlords face an affordability constraint. This is determined by:

(i) The amount of cash they have

(ii) The amount of cashflow they can generate

(iii) The amount they can borrow

(i) is limited and will eventually be exhausted.

(iii) is limited (it's not called the credit crunch for nothing) and will eventually be exhausted.

(ii) is insufficient to sustain the market

90% of the housing market is determined by owner occupiers. Prices will be cheaper next year. If these "pros" reckon that the fundamentals are good enough to warrant investment now, then they are impatient and/or imbecilic.

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i cant see all the growth myself. its dire in my neck of the woods. strange times. i hear one thing and see another.

This where I am with it--none of it makes sense and it ain't right but it does and doesn't seem to be happening.

What I do see is a government in partnership, if that is the right term, doing all they can to support house prices. Subsidies for those who can't (won't) pay their mortgages, non jobs for millions, IR that should not be so low. And yet the world markets have bought it and rated our bonds as among the elite in the world and our currency rock solid after a few weeks of troubles back in the summer when they thought the EU mess might spill over here.

We are not just the last man standing , HPI-wise, but the only man standing in the Western economies. Maybe its because its the norm here to be priced out and only the rich have it so good? The city can make up for millions of unemployed and our exports are steaming--as one poster put it, one single RR Engine is equivalent to 300 tons of Chinese tat.

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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