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Edinburgh&suburbs Property Market

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The snow keeps falling. The city has ground to a halt. Very few people are viewing houses. Even fewer are buying houses. And even fewer are taking mortgages to buy them.

Sounds like perfect time to think what the next year will bring us.

Any chance for a major downturn in Edinburgh in 2011 do you think?

So far, I can see that starter flats in Edinburgh and big houses in the commuting towns have been taking massive hits. Will it spread to other segments over the course of 2011? (I hope so).

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I expect a very large number of properties to come onto an already depressed market in spring which should provide the necessary impetus for the next step down. Since buyers still won't be able to buy, the competition among sellers is likely to be keen.

Thinking about getting a house in Edinburgh or Dunfermline myself in a years time. Refuse (and too scared) to buy now though. I don't see anything on the horizon which encourages me to rush out and buy a house at the moment.

Doesn't matter what the figures are for the next months - Nationwide etc will just write them off as being down to the bad weather and talk up the expected Spring bounce.

Saw a house in Dunfermline last week which was on sale (after several reductions) for 2005 price. Probably not enough to pull me in yet, but at least it's progress.

Would be interested in anyone's recommendation for places to live in Edinburgh itself - needs to be a modern detached house in a chav-less location.

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I take 2 things from the second link - sellers expectations are flat over 2 years (but still not selling) and there is a boost in houses on market. Both should result in prices falling.

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I expect a very large number of properties to come onto an already depressed market in spring which should provide the necessary impetus for the next step down.

What factors do you see causing this rush of property onto the market? I don't think this will happen until interest rates start to rise. I see a drop of 10% in 2011 on the back of very low volumes.

Would be interested in anyone's recommendation for places to live in Edinburgh itself - needs to be a modern detached house in a chav-less location.

Difficult to comment without knowing your budget.

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Would be interested in anyone's recommendation for places to live in Edinburgh itself - needs to be a modern detached house in a chav-less location.

There are no chavs in Scotland … just neds, their Scottish equivalent!

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Gradual drip drip down - continuing as it has been for the next 3-5 years.

Perhaps 5% nominal for another 3-5 years on top of the (Rough estimate as the stats are hard to take value from and different areas have seen different drops) 15% or so we have seen so far.

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What factors do you see causing this rush of property onto the market? I don't think this will happen until interest rates start to rise. I see a drop of 10% in 2011 on the back of very low volumes.

Difficult to comment without knowing your budget.

Number of houses on market has been gradually increasing since the middle of the year, but sales are not going through and many are waiting for a market improvement. That means there is a lot of pent-up demand for selling and many will be waiting for spring. It's certainly true that people won't be forced to move till IRs go up, but many must be getting fed up of holding a property they don't want to hold, especially if media indicates prices are dropping in the next months.

My budget is below 250k stamp duty threshold - 3beds+

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Number of houses on market has been gradually increasing since the middle of the year, but sales are not going through and many are waiting for a market improvement. That means there is a lot of pent-up demand for selling and many will be waiting for spring. It's certainly true that people won't be forced to move till IRs go up, but many must be getting fed up of holding a property they don't want to hold, especially if media indicates prices are dropping in the next months.

It has been increasing but is now decreasing as winter sets in. My search area peaked at 145 now its at 85. Mind you last winter it was 45!

Do you envisage these pent-up sellers are also pent-up buyers as well? i.e. they want to move house. Or are they BTL landlords looking to off-load or budding STRs?

My budget is below 250k stamp duty threshold - 3beds+

Gilmerton has plenty around that price but they are quite near estates with "issues". "The Murrays" in Liberton would be my choice given the budget and requirements.

e.g. http://www.espc.com/buying/292279.html

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It has been increasing but is now decreasing as winter sets in. My search area peaked at 145 now its at 85. Mind you last winter it was 45!

That's roughly my experience. My saved list peaked at 75 and is down to around 60. Most weeks around 10-15% of the properties seem to sell so now fewer are selling but almost nothing coming onto it.

My personal belief is that factoring out Edinburgh's crazy seasonal spikes that prices may stay within 5% of current for the next 2-3 years. That said, history implies that there will be another crisis of some sort in the next 2-3 years so I'm working on a fractal kind of randomness. Talking nominal values I would say there's a 50% chance of prices being within 5% the current price in Nov 2013, a 45% chance of some crisis that knocks 20% off and a 5% chance of some frankly unguessable +20% rise. What I don't think we'll see is any kind of gentle but sustained rise or fall.

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It has been increasing but is now decreasing as winter sets in. My search area peaked at 145 now its at 85. Mind you last winter it was 45!

Do you envisage these pent-up sellers are also pent-up buyers as well? i.e. they want to move house. Or are they BTL landlords looking to off-load or budding STRs?

Gilmerton has plenty around that price but they are quite near estates with "issues". "The Murrays" in Liberton would be my choice given the budget and requirements.

e.g. http://www.espc.com/buying/292279.html

Of course the number on market decreases in winter time - many people take it off if it hasn't sold by early Nov. and plan to return it to market in spring. That's expected and doesn't really mean too much. But because many tried to sell and couldn't (unlike normal years when they try to sell and generally do), I believe there is a lot of pent-up sales demand. This will be made up of people offloading bad investments (post 2006 BTL), people who inherited houses, but mostly just people who want to sell for the usual million reasons and have been unable to, or who have deferred in hope of a better market. People get scared when they see prices dropping for an extended period of time.

Many of these people will be looking to buy again, but the game has changed. Even people moving sideways in the market (not up/downsizing) are playing to new rules and may need to sell, but will not be able to buy in again so will have to rent (e.g. if moving to a new area). Gradually the banks will shake out their riskier customers. There is pent-up seller demand, and pent-up buyer demand. The pent-up buyer demand will be restricted by the banks - the sellers will need to compromise if they want to sell.

Never been to The Murrays" have seen loads of houses advertised there. They look good and I was planning on a trip out there sometime to check the area - is it free from dodgy areas and neds? Anyone know much about it in terms of location and value for money?

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Of course the number on market decreases in winter time - many people take it off if it hasn't sold by early Nov. and plan to return it to market in spring. That's expected and doesn't really mean too much. But because many tried to sell and couldn't (unlike normal years when they try to sell and generally do), I believe there is a lot of pent-up sales demand. This will be made up of people offloading bad investments (post 2006 BTL), people who inherited houses, but mostly just people who want to sell for the usual million reasons and have been unable to, or who have deferred in hope of a better market. People get scared when they see prices dropping for an extended period of time.

Many of these people will be looking to buy again, but the game has changed. Even people moving sideways in the market (not up/downsizing) are playing to new rules and may need to sell, but will not be able to buy in again so will have to rent (e.g. if moving to a new area). Gradually the banks will shake out their riskier customers. There is pent-up seller demand, and pent-up buyer demand. The pent-up buyer demand will be restricted by the banks - the sellers will need to compromise if they want to sell.

Never been to The Murrays" have seen loads of houses advertised there. They look good and I was planning on a trip out there sometime to check the area - is it free from dodgy areas and neds? Anyone know much about it in terms of location and value for money?

?, If it is where I think it is, it is just a Barratt style scheme, there are neds a plenty all around the area, but you won`t come into much contact with them in the "exclusive" development. It is shite value for money, not because of neds, but just because it is shite value for money. If you pay quarter of a million to live there your next digs will be in the Royal Edinburgh rubber rooms IMO.

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?, If it is where I think it is, it is just a Barratt style scheme, there are neds a plenty all around the area, but you won`t come into much contact with them in the "exclusive" development. It is shite value for money, not because of neds, but just because it is shite value for money. If you pay quarter of a million to live there your next digs will be in the Royal Edinburgh rubber rooms IMO.

So what's your recommended area? Having looked at some houses on Rightmove, they did seem to have pretty small living rooms.

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So what's your recommended area? Having looked at some houses on Rightmove, they did seem to have pretty small living rooms.

The whole of Edinburgh is bubble city, one of the biggest bubbles in the UK I think is fair to say, buying now is madness, you have to wait. Nowhere in Edinburgh is more than a stones throw from chavs/neds, but nowhere in Edinburgh has yet been visited by Ross Kemp and his team, so it is good living, but very overpriced at the moment. You have to sit back and wait. Chav free areas are The Grange, Morningside,Cramond,Blackhall, Ravelston etc.

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Yep Sheeple dancer - Edinburgh is one City where even the nicest areas can be very close to serious schemies.

One of the few areas that is not is Cramond/Barnton/Cammo. Due to it being sort of on the edge and out of the way. Not really any through road for the marauding chavs to venture along.

Other nice areas like some of the better parts of Silverknowes ? Can be a chav walking motorway between D Mains and Muirhouse etc...

Similar with some parts of even Blackhall. Ravelston seems to sit not too close to many chavs though.

However you look at the prices in these places and you see what happens.

Did a search for these area and about this is the only thing within budget.

Braehead

Semi detached but with 3 bedrooms. Fairly modern but I reckon a lot better built than the newest stuff. Lovely area as well. Between Cramond/Cammo and Barnton. No problems with random chavs at all. Sometimes a little noise from aircraft but not a big deal. Very good transport links - well apart from the last week !!

About 3 minutes walk to the River Almond.

river-almond-19307.jpg

20 minutes walk to Cramond Village.

Cramond_Harbour.jpg

Nice area. I should know - I live here right now !!

If the price was about £150k I would think it was an excellent value. Not at oo 235k however. Although compared to somewhere on the edge of LIberont for similar money ? Different league IMO. Proper posh area. :D

Not sure about areas in town like the Grange or Morningside. Others would be better giving you examples of them.

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The whole of Edinburgh is bubble city, one of the biggest bubbles in the UK I think is fair to say, buying now is madness, you have to wait. Nowhere in Edinburgh is more than a stones throw from chavs/neds, but nowhere in Edinburgh has yet been visited by Ross Kemp and his team, so it is good living, but very overpriced at the moment. You have to sit back and wait. Chav free areas are The Grange, Morningside,Cramond,Blackhall, Ravelston etc.

You're preaching to the converted - just locked my money away for a year to avoid temptation :lol: I always think winter is a good time to buy so 12 months from now might be good.

I am seriously starting to research areas though. A lot of areas are out because it's all older houses (e.g. morningside?)

Basically I'm looking for value for money and a good area. expecting to pay 250k but wanting to get a modern 3-4 bed detached. Would like it to be Edinburgh but definitely considering Dunfermline which is a lot cheaper.

Much appreciate the info ccc. Don't fancy the house link you sent, but will get out and visit some of those areas you mentioned.

I have little doubt about what must happen - it's just all taking a bit too long, and could drag out for some time yet if IRs don't go up.

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Probably looking at 350k for these areas for a 3-4 bed modern detached place. Although many are not the most attractive looking houses. Depends what you are looking for.

Area is great though - if you like to be away from chavs but still within the Edinburgh.

As you say though mush better value for money anywhere outside. Especially Fife. Could get what you are wanting today for 250k easy.

Then again if you wait another 2 years maybe the same money will get the same house but within Edinburgh. Who knows !

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Girlfriend's in Livingston - cheaper houses there, but quickly gaining over the last few years.

I'm in Midlothian, would like to be near Musselburgh area for work but not too far for commuting to the centre as there are lots of jobs in the centre!

Would probably have between £50k and £90k (at a stretch) to put down in 2-3 years' time, but hey that's better than nothing. Would be willing to take on a £75k mortgage max I reckon (so £125k to £165k for a place). Not so interested in the old council houses unless it's something special - want nice looking area with nice neighbours! But then council tax would probably be an issue. Alternatively could buy for less and live like a king lol. Have been looking nationally and abroad but need to start homing in on areas in Midlothian now despite higher prices here (Livingston too far from where I work despite girlfriend having paid flat off).

Edited by guitarman001

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?, If it is where I think it is, it is just a Barratt style scheme, there are neds a plenty all around the area, but you won`t come into much contact with them in the "exclusive" development. It is shite value for money, not because of neds, but just because it is shite value for money. If you pay quarter of a million to live there your next digs will be in the Royal Edinburgh rubber rooms IMO.

Of course its a Barratt Style scheme-he wants a 3/4 bed modern detached house.

As for being poor value for money-unless you think it particularly poor value compared to the rest of Edinburgh then you're not adding anything to the debate by simply saying "Edinburgh is shite value etc etc".

He wants suggestions as to what areas to keep an eye on with a view to buying when prices fall further.

Are there any areas that you suggest? ;)

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You're preaching to the converted - just locked my money away for a year to avoid temptation :lol: I always think winter is a good time to buy so 12 months from now might be good.

I am seriously starting to research areas though. A lot of areas are out because it's all older houses (e.g. morningside?)

Basically I'm looking for value for money and a good area. expecting to pay 250k but wanting to get a modern 3-4 bed detached. Would like it to be Edinburgh but definitely considering Dunfermline which is a lot cheaper.

Much appreciate the info ccc. Don't fancy the house link you sent, but will get out and visit some of those areas you mentioned.

I have little doubt about what must happen - it's just all taking a bit too long, and could drag out for some time yet if IRs don't go up.

Dunfermline and the environs is hugely cheaper. Where do you work? Dunfermline and southern fife worth considering so long as you don't have to drive across the forth road bridge to get to work each day!

As for Morningside-virtually no detached properties anyway new or old. In fact ESPC returns one: yours for £1.4million :lol:

I think you may be right about price falls picking up pace only when IRs go up. Of course then mortgages will be more expensive but you wont have to borrow as much. Swings and roundabouts but high IR, low mortgage is good if you are disciplined and can afford to overpay.

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Property in edinburgh is definetely overpriced but its hard to see were a crash will come from.

Having been to Ireland and dublin in particular its obvious how things collapsed there. The number of properties been built could never be justified for such a small country.

They were building block upon block of flats on parts of the canal which would cover leith walk a few times and it not very nice areas.

Theres no place in edinburgh were the same thing is happening, i think the best we can hope for is a slow downward trend, maybe another 5-10% max off current prices.

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Of course its a Barratt Style scheme-he wants a 3/4 bed modern detached house.

As for being poor value for money-unless you think it particularly poor value compared to the rest of Edinburgh then you're not adding anything to the debate by simply saying "Edinburgh is shite value etc etc".

He wants suggestions as to what areas to keep an eye on with a view to buying when prices fall further.

Are there any areas that you suggest? ;)

I feel like I'm hijacking this thread a bit....but this seems to be quite a good general discussion on the outskirts and outer towns of Edinburgh so hopefully it's useful to the OP and others.

I work near Leith so Dunfermline would indeed involve a drive/cycle/bus over the bridge - about 1000 quid a year for transport not to mention the time and hassle. But the houses are big and cheap(er). Have a nice 200k deposit so IRs not really a problem - but if I could get somewhere under 250k (would possibly consider more expensive but prefer not to pay >250k stamp duty). Happy to cycle 10k to/from city centre though if necessary.

Hopefully 350k houses will come down to 250k with the crash. Not optimistic but definitely hopeful. :lol:

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I feel like I'm hijacking this thread a bit....but this seems to be quite a good general discussion on the outskirts and outer towns of Edinburgh so hopefully it's useful to the OP and others.

Anyone who wants to buy a nice detached house with a garden and a garage in the Edinburgh area is faced with a similar dillema.

The prices in small neighbouring towns (modern estates) are very tempting, but you have to commute and there's no local community/shops, etc.

A proper house in Edinburgh is at the moment way above £300k especially if you want to live in a decent area. I guess, it's all down to what you value in life.

Re predictions for the 2011, I see that most of us seem to be in agreement that we're facing a very long but quite gentle ride downhill... So, those who rent would probably recalculate whether waiting is really worth it... :unsure:

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I feel like I'm hijacking this thread a bit....but this seems to be quite a good general discussion on the outskirts and outer towns of Edinburgh so hopefully it's useful to the OP and others.

I work near Leith so Dunfermline would indeed involve a drive/cycle/bus over the bridge - about 1000 quid a year for transport not to mention the time and hassle. But the houses are big and cheap(er). Have a nice 200k deposit so IRs not really a problem - but if I could get somewhere under 250k (would possibly consider more expensive but prefer not to pay >250k stamp duty). Happy to cycle 10k to/from city centre though if necessary.

Hopefully 350k houses will come down to 250k with the crash. Not optimistic but definitely hopeful. :lol:

You could get yourself a decent sized detached house for well under 200k, if you looked at Fife. Try a search on the ESPC website for Dunfermline - well worth the short commute. Of course, you don't get to live in Scotland's vibrant capital. But the trains etc are pretty good, with the exception of the recent inclement weather disruption.

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You could get yourself a decent sized detached house for well under 200k, if you looked at Fife. Try a search on the ESPC website for Dunfermline - well worth the short commute. Of course, you don't get to live in Scotland's vibrant capital. But the trains etc are pretty good, with the exception of the recent inclement weather disruption.

That's kind of my dilemma - is it worth the commute or not. It's short, but can be quite brutal at rush hour.

I've been to see some new builds over the past 6 months. Many of the houses are great (to me anyway), and I'm fairly sure they're ned free. But the new builds are not coming down in price at all as far as I've seen, which makes me think 2nd hand house with a motivated seller is the way to go. Not serious enough yet to sign up at an EA and view such places with actual people living in them.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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