El_Pirata Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 http://news.independent.co.uk/business/com...ticle312753.ece I'm not sure if a quite follow his logic here. He highlights all the factors that point to a big crunch - oil prices, debt, falling house prices, rising unemployent, budget deficits, US trade deficit. But then he says everything must be ok actually because share prices are holding up. Curious. Also he says that there might be some relief from lower oil prices, but does not say why they might fall. Personally I see crude futures in the low 60s as a great buy as I believe that once the IEA stops releasing reserves and starts rebuilding them, we'll be back on the steady path upwards again. I guess in the end people prefer a bit of mild optimism with their cornflakes rather than doom and gloom (except Daily Mail readers). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Riser Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 http://news.independent.co.uk/business/com...ticle312753.eceI'm not sure if a quite follow his logic here. He highlights all the factors that point to a big crunch - oil prices, debt, falling house prices, rising unemployent, budget deficits, US trade deficit. But then he says everything must be ok actually because share prices are holding up. Curious. Also he says that there might be some relief from lower oil prices, but does not say why they might fall. Personally I see crude futures in the low 60s as a great buy as I believe that once the IEA stops releasing reserves and starts rebuilding them, we'll be back on the steady path upwards again. I guess in the end people prefer a bit of mild optimism with their cornflakes rather than doom and gloom (except Daily Mail readers). <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Crude is up $2 today at $65 and there could be much more to come, this one is not over yet. The DOW fell yesterday on lower than expected US crude reserves, I think we could be back over $70 soon as people start to see through the spin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Pirata Posted September 15, 2005 Author Share Posted September 15, 2005 Crude is up $2 today at $65 and there could be much more to come, this one is not over yet. The DOW fell yesterday on lower than expected US crude reserves, I think we could be back over $70 soon as people start to see through the spin <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Agreed. The oil products market (my area of knowledge) looks remarkably well-supplied at the moment following the IEA stock release, but I've seen in the recent past how this situation can reverse itself very quickly. We're going into refinery maintenance season for a start. Plus at some point the Chinese will have to come out and make some big purchases en-masse, as is their habit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schadenfreude Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 Even Gordon Brown reckons we are nearing the end of the cycle - and we know how much he likes to manipulatee things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duplex Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 A mid cycle dip? Maybe he’s referring to a recent cycling holiday, went for swim ? He can’t be talking about the state of the global economy surely? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ritters Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 A mid cycle dip Stop it, my side is splitting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 Crude is up $2 today at $65 <{POST_SNAPBACK}> And the pound has slipped, too, which adds to the price we have to pay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bears all Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 When journalists start writing "It's just a mid-cycle dip" you know it's time to brace yourself for the crash position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
since the beginning Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 Mid cycle dip. So we can expect house prices to triple again. £550,000 for the average house by 2010!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 But then he says everything must be ok actually because share prices are holding up. Weren't people saying that in 1929? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justanewbie Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 When journalists start writing "It's just a mid-cycle dip" you know it's time to brace yourself for the crash position.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Hmm... the "crash position".... Is that what I am imagining.... the proverbial ostrich posture... cranium inter anus ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Pirata Posted September 15, 2005 Author Share Posted September 15, 2005 Part of the reason the FTSE is holding up is because oil companies are doing so well. Scratch beneath the surface and all in not rosy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 Maybe he meant dipression? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mustrum_ridcully Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 Look at the top 5 best performing shares today on the FTSE: BOC Group International Power Royal Dutch Shell 'B' Ord Eur0.07 Royal Dutch Shell 'A' Ord EUR0.07 (WI) Rio Tinto Look at the bottom 5 Kingfisher Next Smith & Nephew Compass Group Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets 3 of the top 5 are in the oil business 3 of the top 5 are in retail Says a lot that does I think... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Pirata Posted September 15, 2005 Author Share Posted September 15, 2005 Look at the top 5 best performing shares today on the FTSE:BOC Group International Power Royal Dutch Shell 'B' Ord Eur0.07 Royal Dutch Shell 'A' Ord EUR0.07 (WI) Rio Tinto Look at the bottom 5 Kingfisher Next Smith & Nephew Compass Group Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets 3 of the top 5 are in the oil business 3 of the top 5 are in retail Says a lot that does I think... <{POST_SNAPBACK}> And Rio Tinto are miners - also enjoying the commodities boom While BOC are involved in industrial gases Note that these top 5 companies make most of their money abroad. Without the revenues that they bring back into the UK, how would our economy be faring? What if they decided to up-sticks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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