Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
El_Pirata

"not A Recession But A Mid-cycle Dip"

Recommended Posts

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/com...ticle312753.ece

I'm not sure if a quite follow his logic here. He highlights all the factors that point to a big crunch - oil prices, debt, falling house prices, rising unemployent, budget deficits, US trade deficit.

But then he says everything must be ok actually because share prices are holding up.

Curious.

Also he says that there might be some relief from lower oil prices, but does not say why they might fall. Personally I see crude futures in the low 60s as a great buy as I believe that once the IEA stops releasing reserves and starts rebuilding them, we'll be back on the steady path upwards again.

I guess in the end people prefer a bit of mild optimism with their cornflakes rather than doom and gloom (except Daily Mail readers).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Riser
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/com...ticle312753.ece

I'm not sure if a quite follow his logic here. He highlights all the factors that point to a big crunch - oil prices, debt, falling house prices, rising unemployent, budget deficits, US trade deficit.

But then he says everything must be ok actually because share prices are holding up.

Curious.

Also he says that there might be some relief from lower oil prices, but does not say why they might fall. Personally I see crude futures in the low 60s as a great buy as I believe that once the IEA stops releasing reserves and starts rebuilding them, we'll be back on the steady path upwards again.

I guess in the end people prefer a bit of mild optimism with their cornflakes rather than doom and gloom (except Daily Mail readers).

Crude is up $2 today at $65 and there could be much more to come, this one is not over yet. The DOW fell yesterday on lower than expected US crude reserves, I think we could be back over $70 soon as people start to see through the spin :ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Crude is up $2 today at $65 and there could be much more to come, this one is not over yet. The DOW fell yesterday on lower than expected US crude reserves, I think we could be back over $70 soon as people start to see through the spin :ph34r:

Agreed. The oil products market (my area of knowledge) looks remarkably well-supplied at the moment following the IEA stock release, but I've seen in the recent past how this situation can reverse itself very quickly. We're going into refinery maintenance season for a start. Plus at some point the Chinese will have to come out and make some big purchases en-masse, as is their habit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bart of Darkness
But then he says everything must be ok actually because share prices are holding up.

Weren't people saying that in 1929?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Look at the top 5 best performing shares today on the FTSE:

BOC Group

International Power

Royal Dutch Shell 'B' Ord Eur0.07

Royal Dutch Shell 'A' Ord EUR0.07 (WI)

Rio Tinto

Look at the bottom 5

Kingfisher

Next

Smith & Nephew

Compass Group

Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets

3 of the top 5 are in the oil business

3 of the top 5 are in retail

Says a lot that does I think...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Look at the top 5 best performing shares today on the FTSE:

BOC Group

International Power

Royal Dutch Shell 'B' Ord Eur0.07

Royal Dutch Shell 'A' Ord EUR0.07 (WI)

Rio Tinto

Look at the bottom 5

Kingfisher

Next

Smith & Nephew

Compass Group

Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets

3 of the top 5 are in the oil business

3 of the top 5 are in retail

Says a lot that does I think...

And Rio Tinto are miners - also enjoying the commodities boom

While BOC are involved in industrial gases

Note that these top 5 companies make most of their money abroad. Without the revenues that they bring back into the UK, how would our economy be faring?

What if they decided to up-sticks?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.