Realistbear - Whats Happened - Bull

[_w_]

As I said, I scored an 88% on the Times forecast test. Predicting Sterling, Euro crashes this year was huge. And don't forget, I was the first one to call the structural collapse in the banking systrem a couple years ago when everyone was saying fractional reserve was normal and not to worry.

RB, as I've written before IMO you've got better analytical skills than most. But when it comes to some subjects where you let emotional factors cloud your judgment, I hope you don't take this the wrong way, but you can be a spectacularly consistent contrarian indicator.

Anyway, we've got until 2016 to check this out. It should be fun.

Edited December 4, 2010 by _w_

[libspero]

Everyone would and the cycle starts again.

Exactly, if they would just let it happen things could pick up again. Instead we are just dragging out the depressing downward part of the cycle unnecessarily.

[libspero]

If you buy a house for £250K, it's a £250K house .

[Realistbear]

If I have learned anything about the 'crash' that never really was is that what should be logical, i.e., that the bubble needed to burst but didn't. Nobody expected the Government of the day to do what it did to put a floor on the market. They took the market out of the housing market and created a monster. What they did was immoral.

However, given the the UK has weathered the storm whereas all the the other bubble countries appear to have had or are having their corrections (crashed) in spite of government interference, this still leaves the UK as an incredibly high cost country overly dependent upon dodgy finance, services and import led consumerism. We are exposed to high energy costs and the foolish, unilateral position of making energy more expensive due to 'climate change' policies.

As someone put it the problem continues to be kicked down the road. It always was and always will be unsustainable. What will the UK's competitive position look like when other countries have their correction and come out of their recession, if we've not really had ours?

It's frustrating, unfair and gobsmackingly immoral.

Is the UK finished, who knows, there seems to be no end to the hollowing out by big business, and weak, almost anti-British government.

Agree.

We may not escape the fallout completely but we have missed the worst. The rest of the world are propping us up because of the bankster fraternity and their poltician poodles. For the masses--they will pay through increasing poverty but for the banksters and elites that feed from them it will be, if anything, a never ending gravvy train.

Keeping the prols poor and in debt is the best way to avoid civil disorder. Keep them in hope of something better someday. The Multicultural dream is so confused that no one knows whats what and thats the way the controllers want it.

Can all of this be corrected?

I doubt it because I cannot see a 1630's situation developing.

I also agree that our government is Anti-British. DC is a Scot after all! Its like having Normans (Bankster elite) in control all over again.

Edited December 4, 2010 by Realistbear

[tomwatkins]

Firstly, regardless of whether gold goes much higher (which it will - just like it has all this time you've been negative on it) it will be a much better place to store your deposit for a house while waiting for prices to fall (whatever percentage they fall). Of course, you can keep your money in the back and watch it shrink with negative interest rates instead.

Yes, the gold market is a big paper ponzi scheme for the most part. That is why it is of paramount to own physical gold. Far from crashing the price of REAL GOLD, the inevitable collapse of the paper market will mean everyone holding paper gold will see it fall to its intrinsic value, at the same time the long suppressed value of physical gold (suppressed by the issuing of paper gold) will rocket. For example, if everyone thought there were tonnes of Ferrari's in the world, but then suddenly they discovered there was actually only one, what do you think would happen to the value of that Ferrari? It's not rocket science.

And you vastly overestimate the powers of TPTB, they are far less in control than you think. In fact how does thinking they are in control square with your view the paper gold market (one of their tools for gold price suppression) will collapse?

FFS man get with the picture. You want to be safe? Get a warehouse full of canned goods. Bet you in a crisis that I can get more for my beans than you can for a bar of the shiny stuff (pro-rata of course).

[_w_]

As you probably know the coalition government has indicated to the mortgage industry that they would welcome a HP fall of around 25%. I think they mean real prices.

That fits in rather nicely with their so call 'austerity' budget. The 'cuts' were supposed to be in real terms with 4% per year inflation factored in for the next five years.

[Realistbear]

RB, as I've written before IMO you've got better analytical skills than most. But when it comes to some subjects where you let emotional factors cloud your judgment, I hope you don't take this the wrong way, but you can be a spectacularly consistent contrarian indicator.

Anyway, we've got until 2016 to check this out. It should be fun.

You must be referring to gold?

Its like I said, IO its an irrelevancy as it doesn't move anything--it moves because something that does matter moves it. A sop to keep the prols living in hope.

[IBlewItLastTime]

Well I emigrated in 1982 and it was competely hopeless here - I mean no-one could really remember when the country had done anything good.

Within 3 years it had all turned. Ever since then I would never write the UK off. It is capable of incredible change.

[Flatdog]

If you don't own property leave the uk if you can

Too right.

I'm not sure exactly what shape this is going to take, but i don't think it's going to be that far removed from oliver twist (the version with no dancing or music)

The only hope is the uk population ends up revolting, but my evaluation is that as long nearly most of them feel there is some hope they will be ok, jack', imo most wont move a muscle in real defiance.

Acquiescence is the English way

[_w_]

You must be referring to gold?

Its like I said, IO its an irrelevancy as it doesn't move anything--it moves because something that does matter moves it. A sop to keep the prols living in hope.

The prols don't give a toss about fiat or gold. They just about know nothing about them.

[Realistbear]

This has turned out to be an interesting thread.

I just want to sign off for the night by saying:

just kidding!

No--not really. I am no longer a "bear" on UK property prices. I think they have pulled it off because high house prices defines what we are as a nation in so many ways. It determines how we live and how the banksters feed on us. The debt that is created epitomizes the new order of things which is the same as serfdom in a different guise. The brief egalatarian period we may have enjoyed in the 1980's was over before it could take hold and by the late 1990's it was headed back to business as usual with the HPI of the Brown years the opportunity for the Banksters to do their takeover thing and control the world's debt in ways no one may have imagined was possible. An incredible power shift has occured and the masses were necessary for it to happen--masters must have their slaves and the more slaves the better. The middle class had to go and what better way of destroying them than by indebting them through HPI?

Hasta manana

[_w_]

Well I emigrated in 1982 and it was competely hopeless here - I mean no-one could really remember when the country had done anything good.

Within 3 years it had all turned. Ever since then I would never write the UK off. It is capable of incredible change.

That would be true of any country that goes through an unsuspected oil boom.

[Flatdog]

The prols don't give a toss about fiat or gold. They just about know nothing about them.

Perhaps the proles (sic) understand more than you would acknowledge.

[_w_]

Perhaps the proles (sic) understand more than you would acknowledge.

I am one (sic) and I sure know what I understand. What's your point?

[NEO72]

The government recognise the importance of HPI to prop up the service sector. They keep IR artficially low

Like most other western countries also attempting to come out of recession.

refrain from regulating bad lending practices

Why don't you wait and see what the FSA introduce before judging that.

avoid penalsing multipel hlomeowners and BTL by keeping CGT below top rate of tax (28% kicks in next year--if at all).

But they did raise it, did they not?

To answer the other part of my question - what COULD they do - a few examples:

Lower stamp duty/extend eligibility of stamp duty holiday for FTBs

Tax subsidies for FTBs

Extend SMI beyond two years

Cancel reduction in SMI rate

Extend the SLS

The fact that they haven't done any of these things doesn't really suggest the determination to maintain hpi that you suggest.

The fact remains that prices are falling again - all indicators are showing a similar trajectory to late 2007 ie momentum is building (the real falls didn't actually start until spring 2008). Of course the key difference is that then we had a government with an election to try and win AT ANY COST (when did the falls begin again, incidentally?).

Now we have a government with less motivation (and money) to rig the market, and no election to win for some time. IMO those relying on the government to protect 'hard-working homeowners' will be bitterly disappointed in the months/years to come.

[Xurbia]

I always watch for your comments on Uncle Sam. Just back in the UK for a short while before I return to the US. Having been in the US for twelve years I think I can speak with a tiny bit of insight as oppossed to your comments which come from where exactly? A trip to Disney perhaps? You see people like you just don't get it. You like to link the two countries together. They have no similarity whatsover. The Yanks accepted a property crash many moons ago, they accept falling incomes, they accept they don't have any dole money after twelve months, they accept that they will have to move in with relatives if they don't find a job. Oh and BTW they tend to help one another a bit more than they do here. My own state (RI) is typical-the foodbank has had record donations this year.

You are a typical "misery loves company" personality. It's broken here at home so drag them Yanks down with us. Don't compare the two and take some advise from Buffet "never short the US". They will be first out the box-guaranteed.

Those foodbanks seem like a good idea. Our Kroger store helps collect food. Seems more logical than giving cash.

You can easily buy a beautiful detached home in North Carolina for $250K. There are jobs there too. Unemployment insurance is given out pro-rata where I live in Washington State. You'll get back the taxes you paid in and unlike Britain you are not penalised for being single, childless and having cash in the bank.

I can buy a Subaru Outback for $25k and afford to run it on $3 a gallon.

As I have loads of spare cash because of mortgage relief and cheaper living I can pay for my own healthcare. This means I can have my hip and knees replaced in a private hospital when I like. Unlike the NHS I can demand to see a different GP immediately. For the same treatment in Britain you pay once for the NHS and then once more for private care so you get proper treatment. My British GP tried guess diagnosis. My US doctor told me exactly what was wrong. What did my taxes get me? Nothing except the wrong diagnosis from an overpaid and poor excuse of a doctor.

I don't anticipate the USA would be stupid enough to put 20% VAT on goods. That's really going to help a fragile economy. 1 pound in every 5 goes back to the government purse? Incredible! Tax, tax and more tax. Soon it will 50% and you still won't be able to find a decent GP or cheap public transport.

Edited December 4, 2010 by Xurbia

[General Congreve]

The prols don't give a toss about fiat or gold. They just about know nothing about them.

+1

[singlemalt]

If I have learned anything about the 'crash' that never really was is that what should be logical, i.e., that the bubble needed to burst but didn't. Nobody expected the Government of the day to do what it did to put a floor on the market. They took the market out of the housing market and created a monster. What they did was immoral.

However, given the the UK has weathered the storm whereas all the the other bubble countries appear to have had or are having their corrections (crashed) in spite of government interference, this still leaves the UK as an incredibly high cost country overly dependent upon dodgy finance, services and import led consumerism. We are exposed to high energy costs and the foolish, unilateral position of making energy more expensive due to 'climate change' policies.

As someone put it the problem continues to be kicked down the road. It always was and always will be unsustainable. What will the UK's competitive position look like when other countries have their correction and come out of their recession, if we've not really had ours?

It's frustrating, unfair and gobsmackingly immoral.

Is the UK finished, who knows, there seems to be no end to the hollowing out by big business, and weak, almost anti-British government.

Imo one of the single biggest mistakes that the UK government made was to not allow the UK to 'correct' itself as many other countries did. Everyone got sucker punched in 2007/2008 and instead of staying down and gathering its faculties the UK defiantly held itself up on the ropes. Comparable to many others it's now in a very vulnerable position.

Pay now or pay later but you will pay.

[General Congreve]

FFS man get with the picture. You want to be safe? Get a warehouse full of canned goods. Bet you in a crisis that I can get more for my beans than you can for a bar of the shiny stuff (pro-rata of course).

FFS man, get with the picture, who do you know with a warehouse or enough money to FILL it with canned goods. How f4cking preposterous!

Personally I do have a small stash of emergency food, in case I get snowed in, or there's a national emergency of some sort that means I can't get out or buy food for a month, it's just prudent. However, all the canned foods I have tend to expire within about 18 months to 2 years. Obviously that's not a big problem as I can eat them and replace them on a rolling basis, but a whole f4cking warehouse, be serious, what you going to do with all after 2 years? Eat it? Sell it for pennies on the pound?

The situation is going to be bad, lots of unemployment, the west getting poorer relative to the standard of living it has enjoyed for the last few decades, but we won't be in some Mad Max scenario. People like you need some balance, this isn't all or nothing, it's just a shift away from how the world currently works towards a new era where the balance of power has shifted, both politically and financially. In this change there will be wealth lost by some and wealth won by others, but generally it'll be business as usual (unless WW3 kicks off - in which case your beans are going to be f4ck all use anyway).

[Anne_Uumellmahaye]

This is all very odd.

The indeces are all negative

We are a stones throw away from YOY negative

For the first time ever, friends and relatives are congratulating me on renting as property prices are falling.

Have I walked into a parallel universe?

[Anne_Uumellmahaye]

Seems we are back to March 09 and things are about to change and house prices will start to soar.

No more increases in unemployment, public sector cuts have been cut. Cuts in housing benefit postponed. The new government was going to cut the deficit but don't need to any more. Lots of money has been found down the back of the sofa and we can even bail out Ireland.

Excellent news.

As things are looky so rosey for the new year and the MSM are so positive on placing my heard earned savings into property, I shall take my deposit and apply for that 95% mortgage.

This time next year Rodders..................

[libspero]

I live in the UK

Here is a house that was 399K up till last week. (Still on at 399K with this agent)

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r=1&c=7&s=115936299&i=0&p=PCOPCO1490&fp=1&sort=h2l

now on at 250K

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r=1&c=7&s=115936391&i=2&p=PNC534234&fp=1&sort=h2l

It is a brand new good quality house - and would have sold quickly in 2006/7 for the 399K.

Hi Doccyboy.. if I could get a house like that near here for that price I'd be happy to take it and raise a family. I'm an HPCer to the bone, but I'm looking for a home as much as an investment.

I'm sure I can't be the only one in that boat. If I can find a decent place to raise a family in the next couple of years I'll take it. If not, Mazatlan is my plan B.

I'm very jealous of what you get for your money over there in NI!

[uncle rogi]

You must be referring to gold?

Its like I said, IO its an irrelevancy as it doesn't move anything--it moves because something that does matter moves it. A sop to keep the prols living in hope.

[Tired of Waiting]

(...)

My British GP tried guess diagnosis. My US doctor told me exactly what was wrong. What did my taxes get me? Nothing except the wrong diagnosis from an overpaid and poor excuse of a doctor.

(...)

Brilliant.

The NHS is both incompetent and smug.

Edit: And I guess we pay about the same as you for it. Annual budget of around £100bn/year, divided by 20 million private sector workers = £5,000/year/worker. So, as a couple, we pay around £10,000/year for it.

We are planning to start a family, and we are scared of using the NHS for pre-natal care (minimal and not even by doctors, much less by obstetricians), and birth ( I heard mid-wives do this too, but I still can't believe that. Middle-ages?!). A Russian roulette game. We are going to research private care, but even that here is seriously damaged by the lack of competition for quality country-wide, due to the NHS, unlike in the US.

Edited December 5, 2010 by Tired of Waiting

[Second Time Around]

If I have learned anything about the 'crash' that never really was is that what should be logical, i.e., that the bubble needed to burst but didn't. Nobody expected the Government of the day to do what it did to put a floor on the market. They took the market out of the housing market and created a monster. What they did was immoral.

However, given the the UK has weathered the storm whereas all the the other bubble countries appear to have had or are having their corrections (crashed) in spite of government interference, this still leaves the UK as an incredibly high cost country overly dependent upon dodgy finance, services and import led consumerism. We are exposed to high energy costs and the foolish, unilateral position of making energy more expensive due to 'climate change' policies.

As someone put it the problem continues to be kicked down the road. It always was and always will be unsustainable. What will the UK's competitive position look like when other countries have their correction and come out of their recession, if we've not really had ours?

It's frustrating, unfair and gobsmackingly immoral.

Is the UK finished, who knows, there seems to be no end to the hollowing out by big business, and weak, almost anti-British government.

Those who have seen property downturns in the past are less likely to be deflected by short-term events and look at the larger and longer-term picture. The UK appears to have "weathered the storm", but that is only for now. The world's economies are all having to re-structure and re-balance themselves; that will take time. It is going to be six more years before the downturn of this property bust (following the premise of an 18 year property cycle) and I can't see the UK avoiding taking the tough measures it needs to bring itself into line with the other economies during that time. During a volatile period such as this there is money to be made and lost - a lot of what is lost will be in property. You say the current policy response is unsustainable - so it has to change or be forced to change by events as they unfold.

2011 is going to be a very interesting year. I look forward to bumping this thread in a year's time.