Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
cypher007

Story on EA Today ---This Is Why You Wont See An Hpc For Years

Recommended Posts

this comment basically sums up what ive observed:

"However, there is little to indicate that these sellers need to achieve a sale urgently for financial or economic reasons, which means that the downward pressure on house prices is only modest. In addition, there are early signs that the flow of new property onto the market may be slowing down again as potential sellers observe the recent weakness in prices and decide against marketing their properties at the current juncture. Similar seller behaviour was observed in late 2008 and early 2009, eventually leading to a decline in the amount of property on the market."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I believe that for the earliest recipients, SMI comes to an end soon, and then I imagine they will have no choice but to sell or be repossessed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I believe that for the earliest recipients, SMI comes to an end soon, and then I imagine they will have no choice but to sell or be repossessed.

Ended this week for the first ones - read it in the broadsheets.

The quote in the OP is VI talk - bit like Hitler in his bunker in 1945 talking about winning the war... Oh no, I've gone and mentioned Hitler in his bunker...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this comment basically sums up what ive observed:

"However, there is little to indicate that these sellers need to achieve a sale urgently for financial or economic reasons, which means that the downward pressure on house prices is only modest. In addition, there are early signs that the flow of new property onto the market may be slowing down again as potential sellers observe the recent weakness in prices and decide against marketing their properties at the current juncture. Similar seller behaviour was observed in late 2008 and early 2009, eventually leading to a decline in the amount of property on the market."

Back then sheeple thought "They" would/could prevent it. The coming implosion of the Eurozone will dispel such ideas, leading to serious panic among "homeowners" IMO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this comment basically sums up what ive observed:

"However, there is little to indicate that these sellers need to achieve a sale urgently for financial or economic reasons, which means that the downward pressure on house prices is only modest. In addition, there are early signs that the flow of new property onto the market may be slowing down again as potential sellers observe the recent weakness in prices and decide against marketing their properties at the current juncture. Similar seller behaviour was observed in late 2008 and early 2009, eventually leading to a decline in the amount of property on the market."

The subject line of this thread should be changed to "This Is Why Estate Agents Hope There Won't Be An HPC for years"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"However, there is little to indicate that these sellers need to achieve a sale urgently for financial or economic reasons, which means that the downward pressure on house prices is only modest. In addition, there are early signs that the flow of new property onto the market may be slowing down again as potential sellers observe the recent weakness in prices and decide against marketing their properties at the current juncture. Similar seller behaviour was observed in late 2008 and early 2009, eventually leading to a decline in the amount of property on the market."

There are so many assumptions in this commonly expressed view that are clearly wrong. I'll try to summarise:

* The number of buyers registering with EAs is falling faster than the number of new vendors. Thus, the number of interested buyers relative to vendors is still in the buyers' favour and moving more so.

* Many vendors have deluded themselves into thinking that things will start moving again in the Spring. This is of course after a VAT rise, fuel bill hike and for most folk, a below RPI pay increase. In short, buyers will have an even harder time getting a deposit together come March than they are now.

* There was an excellent comment on one discussion here recently about 'pent-up supply'. Many potential vendors have found themselves over the last two years instead becoming reluctant landlords, expecting prices to start rising again soon. How long before they give up waiting?

* Banks have already admitted they don't expect the tight credit conditions to ease during 2011 - even less money is available for mortgaging lending as the banks prepare to start paying back the taxpayer bailouts.

* IRs are not rising, but mortgage rates for existing borrowers are creeping up all the time as special deals end.

* The BTL brigade are not going to start snapping up properties that are clearly falling, if slowly, in value.

I could go on here - govt spending cuts, there being no such thing as a forced buyer but forced sellers due to 3Ds (awful thought - cold weather finishing off more elderly)...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this comment basically sums up what ive observed:

"However, there is little to indicate that these sellers need to achieve a sale urgently for financial or economic reasons, which means that the downward pressure on house prices is only modest. In addition, there are early signs that the flow of new property onto the market may be slowing down again as potential sellers observe the recent weakness in prices and decide against marketing their properties at the current juncture. Similar seller behaviour was observed in late 2008 and early 2009, eventually leading to a decline in the amount of property on the market."

After they had fallen 20%

Now someone give a reason why we won't see another 20% from here?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I couldn't care less if it comes in one year or ten years, although my guess is that the bottom will probably be nearer to one year than ten years. In the meantime, I'll just keep renting and pocketing the difference :D.

I've been saying for some time now that I expect house prices to fall between 30% and 40%, in nominal terms, over the next few years and I see nothing that makes me want to amend that prediction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ConLibs are so weak they may decide to extend it in the same way they have bottled out of the housing benefit cap, sorry postponed for a year. And the banks will not repossess in any case; homeless kids on the street while banker quaff their champagne bonuses.

Apparently it has already ended for the earliest claimants, with no sign of a change in Government policy.

I imagine that if a bank/ building society receives no interest payments whatsoever on a house it has a financial interest in, that it will have little choice other than to repossess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ended this week for the first ones - read it in the broadsheets.

The quote in the OP is VI talk - bit like Hitler in his bunker in 1945 talking about winning the war... Oh no, I've gone and mentioned Hitler in his bunker...

Spaniard's Law: Soon after someone mentions Hitler, someone else will mention Godwin. :D

(like I just did) :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this comment basically sums up what ive observed:

"However, there is little to indicate that these sellers need to achieve a sale urgently for financial or economic reasons, which means that the downward pressure on house prices is only modest. In addition, there are early signs that the flow of new property onto the market may be slowing down again as potential sellers observe the recent weakness in prices and decide against marketing their properties at the current juncture. Similar seller behaviour was observed in late 2008 and early 2009, eventually leading to a decline in the amount of property on the market."

could you now link this into some basic economics please?

there's a good bull...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After they had fallen 20%

Now someone give a reason why we won't see another 20% from here?

Inflation adjusted a 3% fall per year is over 6%, given that the crash will continue for anther three years or so it compounds to over 20%.

Meanwhile EA will have to depend on forced sellers/the dead for business. Existing equity will be the first to be wiped out and buyers wil, increasingly have to for out real hard cash as deposits.

Its negative feed back, falling prices force prices down further (even ignoring sentiment; why buy now when waiting cuts the price).

Japan know all about this effect.

I've been saying for some time now that I expect house prices to fall between 30% and 40%, in nominal terms, over the next few years and I see nothing that makes me want to amend that prediction.

I'm 15months into paying off a 5 year loan, taken on the realisation that is the minimum time scale for end of most of the crash.

Edited by Peter Hun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the thing is - the only people who can buy/sell at the moment are those with cash (seeing savings returns falling not wanting to pay rent for long and needing a house to live in), those with good LTVs and/or tracker mortgages who are moving upward and have a good wad of cash to do so.

so taking that into account, who will provide the 'spring bounce' they are all waiting for? ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this comment basically sums up what ive observed:

"However, there is little to indicate that these sellers need to achieve a sale urgently for financial or economic reasons, which means that the downward pressure on house prices is only modest. In addition, there are early signs that the flow of new property onto the market may be slowing down again as potential sellers observe the recent weakness in prices and decide against marketing their properties at the current juncture. Similar seller behaviour was observed in late 2008 and early 2009, eventually leading to a decline in the amount of property on the market."

Some people have to move, some people die, some couples divorce, etc.

Besides, as soon as prices expectations turn negative, sellers will try to sell ASAP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

some people die

Besides, as soon as prices expectations turn negative, sellers will try to sell ASAP.

One I've been watching, vacant, slowly reduced from 299 to 269 over the last 3-4 months. Not priced terribly if it wasn't for the fact it needs modernisation work, and when I say modernisation I mean gutting.

It clearly falls into the dead relative category, and it's just been taken off of the market, EA say they're going to let it in the New Year. Not quite sure to whom, not close enough to town for student and too poor condition for a family.

But still it's now off the market, and I can’t see it coming back on for at least 5-6 months, if at all, as I expect the owners would rather sit on it letting at low rent and hold onto the book value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some people have to move, some people die, some couples divorce, etc.

Besides, as soon as prices expectations turn negative, sellers will try to sell ASAP.

i have viewed 5 houses in recent weeks, all 4 bed detached + garage in same area:

- #1: they don't need to sell, bought 110k, on for 290k, they are looking to move elsewhere in the same area, have not budged at all;

- #2: divorced couple, bought for 286k, on at 290k then down to 270k believe they eventually sold for 250k, waiting for LR update;

- #3: divorced couple, bought for 162k, on at 290k then down at 265k, prepared to accept 250k+2k, I am not prepared to give more than 240k;

- #4: retired, kids have moved out, wanting to move, on at 285k reduced down to 259k, deperate, would probably accept 230k but I don't like it anyway;

- #5: kids have moved out, bought 110k on for 292k then down to 287k, I can't be bothered to make offer, EA said he wanted me to make offer to help her realise she is having a laugh;

there has been nothing coming on market in recent, will see what happen in NY;

so you don't need low IR or repossessions, people have to move...

Edited by frenchy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One I've been watching, vacant, slowly reduced from 299 to 269 over the last 3-4 months. Not priced terribly if it wasn't for the fact it needs modernisation work, and when I say modernisation I mean gutting.

It clearly falls into the dead relative category, and it's just been taken off of the market, EA say they're going to let it in the New Year. Not quite sure to whom, not close enough to town for student and too poor condition for a family.

But still it's now off the market, and I can’t see it coming back on for at least 5-6 months, if at all, as I expect the owners would rather sit on it letting at low rent and hold onto the book value.

Like this one:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-14584164.html

Up for sale for three years, £50k discount.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like this one:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-14584164.html

Up for sale for three years, £50k discount.

another anecdote, 2 years AGO we looked at a newer 3bed to rent. The owner wouldn't rent to people with kids so we didn't even get to view the house. I has ever since remained vacant (single persons don't rent 3 bed detached houses) and is now... up for sale, 2 years later and not selling! brilliant

Edited by frenchy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the thing is - the only people who can buy/sell at the moment are those with cash (seeing savings returns falling not wanting to pay rent for long and needing a house to live in), those with good LTVs and/or tracker mortgages who are moving upward and have a good wad of cash to do so.

so taking that into account, who will provide the 'spring bounce' they are all waiting for? ;)

47,000 approvals says no.

lets not forget builders are buying peoples places in P.Ex deals....offering top deals and other incentives to move that newbuild...these are cash buyers....just wondering how many buyouts these builders make sit on the books for months?

Mate of mine just done this and he says his old place is already sold...he hasnt moved in yet, but methinks HE could have made more money selling it himself and negotiating hard with the builder....

still, its only borrowed money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't think of anything that could happen that would "re-pressurize" the market, giving tax discounts to FTB would be a non starter as politically it'd alienate everyone else. The banks aren't likely to discount their mortgage rates till they recover the capitalizations. The CML have the only solution and that would be to "gift" mortgages but even that just won't last for the obvious reasons. <_<

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.