Nationwide - Uk House Prices Fall Again In Nov

[neil324]

They told you all what it was last week with their comments.

[the flying pig]

blame the snow.

[Statistician]

Just -0.3% over November!!!

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Nov_2010.pdf

[Realistbear]

Locally, houses I am tracking are dropping by around £5k MoM on a typical $225-250k property--around 2% MoM fall and really nothing compared with the inflated values that persist. So nothing dramatic as UK Plc is still not feeling any consequences for the Brown years that any would notice. FTSE soaring again as Sterling rebounds on strong fundamentals. All the time perception is that we will not suffer like the rest of the world house prices will only drop slowly.

[hedgefunded]

.3% is a little low, but a fall is a fall.

Rather a steady trickle, and a slow turning of sentiment than the -3.x% figure we had a while back and then positive the next month.

I'm now not convinced we need higher interest rates or lots of forced sales to see continuing falls. I think it just needs a bunch of people to make the decision to sell while they can.

Once that gathers a bit of momentum it will snowball.

Of course, we've been waiting a long time, and one day we will get our crash, but to quote some crap film "every great journey begins with a small step"

[Captain Cavey]

BBC unusually bearish on this (-0.4%!!!)

Someone on the night desk will be getting their @rse kicked when the Editor comes in to see that he was unduly scared and that his portfolio hasn’t dropped by that extra 0.1%

Now corrected, and there's a shallow grave out the back of broadcasting house

The average price dropped by another 0.3% to leave it just 0.4% higher than a year ago, at just over £163,398.

[Fawkandles]

vinced we need higher interest rates or lots of forced sales to see continuing falls. I think it just needs a bunch of people to make the decision to sell while they can.

Once that gathers a bit of momentum it will snowball.

Agreed, but IR hikes would help. Investor psychology is important, and as the sentiment changes so will the prices, even if all the economic indicators remain the same. Sentiment alone can drop this market, but it ain't easy to reach that tipping point.

The question is, how big of a dip is needed, over what period, to get the self-fulfilling prophecy snowball to roll?

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

tbh, I'd love to know how many mortgages NW approved last month, it can't be more than 3000 can it (assuming they have a 10% market share?)

That's the problem. If NW is 10% (maybe a bit low - anyone got the stat), then across the regions is even more farcical with 3000 mortgages spread across a dozen places. The numbers are going to be choppy on the way down, I think only q on q is really worth looking at.

[Realistbear]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01775/Housepricesnew_1775002b.gif

[Reck B]

However, Nationwide chief economist Martin Gahbauer said supply pressures were starting to ease and there was little to suggest house price declines would accelerate in the months ahead.

[Van]

A fall is a fall.

I think we should get a bigger drop next month as the big freeze hits activity in the housing market.

Nationwide figures next week will almost certainly be YoY negative.

Sentiment needs time to change.

6 months ago it was " We're heading back to the highs"

Today: "We're not getting back to the 2007 highs"

In two months time it will be "My house is worth less than a year ago"

in a year it will be "My house is worth less than it at the bottom of 2009"

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

in a year it will be "My house is worth less than it at the bottom of 2009"

It already is, in real terms

[Democorruptcy]

The fall was 0.4% according to the story buried on the BBC news website

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11879051

From the BBC link

""There is no sign of a return to more 'normal' mortgage funding availability in the foreseeable future," the CML warned.

So bubble lending with liar loans, self certs, interest only with no repayment vehicle, 125% is now classed normal?

[exiges]

So bubble lending with liar loans, self certs, interest only with no repayment vehicle, 125% is now classed normal?

That's the rub. It's the same people complaining about "irresponsible greedy bankers" who are then bleating that they can't get a mortgage because the banks have stopped being irresponsible (if still greedy)

To be honest, I think the BOE/Govt are doing the only thing they can, they're letting this bubble deflate gently.. bit of inflation here, but of tight lending there, bit of restriction on benefit rents, knowing the banks have a big margin above base to rebuild their finances. Rather than an outright crash + panic.

Edited December 1, 2010 by exiges

[Fawkandles]

That's the rub. It's the same people complaining about "irresponsible greedy bankers" who are then bleating that they can't get a mortgage because the banks have stopped being irresponsible (if still greedy)

To be honest, I think the BOE/Govt are doing the only thing they can, they're letting this bubble deflate gently.. bit of inflation here, but of tight lending there, bit of restriction on benefit rents, knowing the banks have a big margin above base to rebuild their finances. Rather than an outright crash + panic.

^ What he said, plus the market moves so slowly as it is. The timing should be perfect for my deposit saving schedule

[Number79]

Not hearing anything on bbc news now.

The bbc has been odd of late. They are making a meal of the snow. There was some dopey bird in leeds talking about it snowing very heavily and bringing the whole are to a standstill. Wasnt very convincing when you could barely see any snow falling and freely moving traffic on clear roads behind her.

They kept running a short clip yesterday about a french company now selling miniature gold bars like they are a new invention. And saying that a 50g bar will set you back £1340 which is odd because you couldnt buy a 50g bar for that.

[Dorkins]

What was the volume? This is key

Negative is negative! Continued trend, etc. I would be quacking in my boots if I wanted to sell. (more so than before at least)

Edit: beaten to it

Edited December 1, 2010 by Dorkins

[TheCountOfNowhere]

House prices going nowhere...inflation shooting up....

you'd get a better return investing in baked beans

[Captain Cavey]

BBC

So so close now to YoY -ve

[Realistbear]

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/House-prices-gains-wiped-tele-2416979367.html?x=0

House prices gains wiped out

Myra Butterworth, 10:47, Wednesday 1 December 2010

The house price gains seen at the beginning of this year have been totally wiped out, figures by Nationwide revealed today.

Nice headline. So we are back to 2009? I have never seen a bubble with a skin so tough.

Edited December 1, 2010 by Realistbear

[Selling up]

Nationwide figures (nominal)

Nov 10: 163,398

Feb 09 (recent trough): 147,746

Oct 07 (peak): 186,044

May 04: 149,020

So we're 12% off the peak. To return to the recent trough in nominal terms needs a fall of a further 9.6%. Any bigger fall would put us back to April 04 prices.

[PopGun]

Why oh why do people still pay any attention to these silly figures?

[Democorruptcy]

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/House-prices-gains-wiped-tele-2416979367.html?x=0

House prices gains wiped out

Myra Butterworth, 10:47, Wednesday 1 December 2010

The house price gains seen at the beginning of this year have been totally wiped out, figures by Nationwide revealed today.

Nice headline. So we are back to 2009? I have never seen a bubble with a skin so tough.

That must be the same Myra Butterworth who wrote the Telegraph article saying renting was cheaper than buying that some of us complained about because it didn't mention "buying" was via an interest only mortgage

Have we crushed her property ramping?

[ccc]

Why oh why do people still pay any attention to these silly figures?

The general public do, even though we all know that it is the price you can get for a specific house in a specific area that really matters.

And with higher volumes they do at least give a decent idea of the general trend in a country.

[ccc]

That must be the same Myra Butterworth who wrote the Telegraph article saying renting was cheaper than buying that some of us complained about because it didn't mention "buying" was via an interest only mortgage

Have we crushed her property ramping?

That is interesting. The cynic in me would think something else. If you had been getting heat from the PCC about complaints on certain articles to do with a one sided view of house prices and the use of misleading figures - what would be a good way to prove you had no such one sided view...