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Realistbear

U. K. Consumer Confidence Collapses

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-30/u-k-consumer-confidence-drops-to-four-month-low-as-budget-squeeze-looms.html

U.K. consumer confidence
unexpectedly dropped
to a four-month low in November as looming public-spending cuts dented Britons’ outlook for 2011, a report by GfK NOP Ltd. showed...../
The report “is clearly not good news,” Nick Moon, managing director of GfK NOP Social Research, said in the statement. “What is more worrying in this month’s figures is that the worst-performing elements of the index are those that look to the future.”

With the EU in its death throws and the housing market imploding in the UK there seems to be little reason for optimism. The best people can do now is find a safe haven for what ever liquid savings they might have. A commodities bust will follow as demand tanks and the real recession begins.

Edited by Realistbear

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-30/u-k-consumer-confidence-drops-to-four-month-low-as-budget-squeeze-looms.html

U.K. consumer confidence
unexpectedly dropped
to a four-month low in November as looming public-spending cuts dented Britons’ outlook for 2011, a report by GfK NOP Ltd. showed...../
The report “is clearly not good news,” Nick Moon, managing director of GfK NOP Social Research, said in the statement. “What is more worrying in this month’s figures is that the worst-performing elements of the index are those that look to the future.”

With the EU in its death throws and the housing market imploding in the UK there seems to be little reason for optimism. The best people can do now is find a safe haven for what ever liquid savings they might have. A commodities bust will follow as demand tanks and the real recession begins.

If only there was some way that the authorities could just print money, eh?

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I bought two bottles of Jack Daniels in Tesco yesterday - 2 for £25 - and a box of those Lindt truffles in the red wrappers.

That is £12.50 per bottle of Jack D which is the cheapest I have seen the second largest bottle of Jack sold for in years. At one point last week Morrisons had a litre of Barcardi for £12.

I think they are discounting alcohol because people are not buying. Clothes next I guess.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-30/u-k-consumer-confidence-drops-to-four-month-low-as-budget-squeeze-looms.html

U.K. consumer confidence
unexpectedly dropped
to a four-month low in November as looming public-spending cuts dented Britons’ outlook for 2011, a report by GfK NOP Ltd. showed...../
The report “is clearly not good news,” Nick Moon, managing director of GfK NOP Social Research, said in the statement. “What is more worrying in this month’s figures is that the worst-performing elements of the index are those that look to the future.”

With the EU in its death throws and the housing market imploding in the UK there seems to be little reason for optimism. The best people can do now is find a safe haven for what ever liquid savings they might have. A commodities bust will follow as demand tanks and the real recession begins.

Any ideas on the best safe haven Bear?

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yes, print money...clearly there is a shortage.

There is certainly a shortage of other ideas coming out of central banks. Policy controls seem to be limited to, up, down, print.

There is only a shortage of money if we try to maintain asset (property) values at their present levels.

Edited by libspero

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Any ideas on the best safe haven Bear?

Consider things which are not in a bubble right now--or investments that have not been the subject of imprudent exhuberance (where the herd is or has very recently been).

I unloaded most of my bond holding a few weeks ago mainly on PIMCO's warnings and I hold very little stocks. Most in cash ($ and some £). Euro is a place not to be that is a sure fire no-brainer. Buffett has warned on commodity bubbles (and just about anything else that has risen in value over the last 5 years or so).

Might what to work out what the traditional safe haven has been and consider that.

Edited by Realistbear

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-30/u-k-consumer-confidence-drops-to-four-month-low-as-budget-squeeze-looms.html

U.K. consumer confidence
unexpectedly dropped
to a four-month low in November as looming public-spending cuts dented Britons’ outlook for 2011, a report by GfK NOP Ltd. showed...../
The report “is clearly not good news,” Nick Moon, managing director of GfK NOP Social Research, said in the statement. “What is more worrying in this month’s figures is that the worst-performing elements of the index are those that look to the future.”

With the EU in its death throws and the housing market imploding in the UK there seems to be little reason for optimism. The best people can do now is find a safe haven for what ever liquid savings they might have. A commodities bust will follow as demand tanks and the real recession begins.

GfK's consumer confidence barometer, carried out in cooperation with the European Commision, is based on a survey of 2,000 people and uses a number of survey questions including things like

'do you expect your family to be better or worse off next year'

'do you expect teconomic conditions to be better/worse next year'

'do you intend to make this (major) purchase in the coming months'

Given the first of these and austerity PR surely they'd expect the index to be going down - even if only considering the public sector people responding to the survey.

A score of -22 is not exceptionally huge. In 1990 levels reached below -30 and below -35 in 2009. Given its the forward looking questions that dragged the index down we might expect worse to come- assuming of course we believe the members of the public responding to the survey are good at economic forecasting :)

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Consumer confidence in Nov. hits 5-month high

US Consumer Confidence Index rises to 54.1 in November, hitting 5-month high

.

On Tuesday November 30, 2010, 10:04 am

NEW YORK (AP) -- A monthly survey shows Americans' confidence in the economy rose in November to the highest level in five months amid more hopeful signs.

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Consider things which are not in a bubble right now--or investments that have not been the subject of imprudent exhuberance (where the herd is or has very recently been).

I unloaded most of my bond holding a few weeks ago mainly on PIMCO's warnings and I hold very little stocks. Most in cash ($ and some £). Euro is a place not to be that is a sure fire no-brainer. Buffett has warned on commodity bubbles (and just about anything else that has risen in value over the last 5 years or so).

Might what to work out what the traditional safe haven has been and consider that.

Fair enough, I agree on most of what you say. The long term validity of the £ and $ are questionable as well though. Just because it's panic stations in the EU this month, it doesn't mean the US/UK's problems haven't gone away. Besides, if countries start leaving the Euro and defaulting on their debts this will hit foreign banks hard and have repercussions for other countries, not least the UK.

As you know I am long gold and consider it to be the traditional safe haven (despite having risen in value over the last 5 years - it also differs from other commodities in that it is not a true commodity, being closer to money than a commodity). I also know you believe gold is set for a fall, so your final response is somewhat perplexing to me, a riddle indeed Mr Bear.

Edited by General Congreve

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This is what I am seeing from the supplier side of things and is having a domino effect now although the dominos are only just getting going.

Jan will be an interesting month as self assesment has to be in so I suspect alot of staged payments to HMRC if people dont decide to go bankrupt then.

The revenue owes me £600 this Jan. :)

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The revenue owes me £600 this Jan. :)

I got one of those letters in May. Have just got arounnd to sending the details. Apparently I've paid too much NI in 2009-10.

Fingers crossed for a nice Christmas present.

Any idea how long it takes them to send the cheque after you give them the form? :)

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I got one of those letters in May. Have just got arounnd to sending the details. Apparently I've paid too much NI in 2009-10.

Fingers crossed for a nice Christmas present.

Any idea how long it takes them to send the cheque after you give them the form? :)

In the past they've been pretty snappy with repayments they've owed me, got my money within 6 weeks, if not 4, if I remember correctly. Then again I got my forms in asap, before any back log could build up.

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  • 311 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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