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House Prices Set To Tumble Further As Buyers Continue To Shun The Market

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1334080/House-prices-set-tumble-buyers-continue-shun-market.html

Pressure mounted once again on house prices today when the Bank of England revealed the number of mortgages being approved continued to fall.

Only 47,185 loans were approved for people buying a property during the month - the lowest level since February.

The subdued level of transactions - well below the 70,000 to 80,000 approvals a month which are considered to be consistent with a stable market - will continue to put downward pressure on house prices.

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70,000 to 80,000 approvals a month which are considered to be consistent with a stable market - will continue to put downward pressure on house prices

So........ the British housing market is unstable. Gosh, that's really bad news then. Um, low interest rates, loads of stock and nobody buying. It's all a bit poo poo. I guess the estate agents will be buying shovels for Christmas. When they've finished with the snow clearance they can scrape out their undies. :lol:

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naa

don't think prices will tumble at all.

What we will see is EA's going out of business, sellers giving up altogether and reducing supply.

Arrogance is the problem

I think estate agents are just confident chaps and it's all about their clothes. That crinkled 20 quid Tesco's suit makes them feel invincible. "Who's the daddy?"

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Buyers are only half the problem - there are 1-3 years worth of people renting out properties they'd rather sell and 1-3 years of people who decided now was not the time to sell, or who could not sell this year.

Many of these people will be putting property on the market in spring. Buyers still won't be able to buy unless there are reductions so it's the sellers who are going to be fighting to sell.

Bloody hope so anyway - this hpc is taking long enough.

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We have had a decade of living in lala land

where we could buy whatever we wanted ,

and when we ran outta plastic we could

consolidate all our loans into 1 convenient package,

thats if we didnt trip over Joshs scooooter in the rush

for the application forms.

After that Dale Winton encouraged us to sell all that

"unwanted" gold and treat yourself to that holiday, new car

or half a million new public sector jobs

blah blah blag

The politicians and their lapdog press told us

everything was fine and Gordon saved the world

The BoE told us to spend our way back to health

savings are for mugs

Suddenly we awake and find that some Polish welder

will work for half your wage and your unemployed

unless of course you are prepared to compete

at the same or less financial terms

its just individual tendering for contracts you understand

And your 1 convenient debt package has been sold by the bank

onto a Russian debt collection agency registered in Knightsbridge

so we have no doubts they are reputable

but we do advise prompt payment

The coldest and earliest start to a winter for decades

sees an immediate price hike in gas and electricity

in most other business the more you sell the bigger discounts you can give

but for this life saving commodity they make it harder to obtain when we need it most

I know hypothermia can knock a lot off the pension and health costs ,but really!

Its so cold ,the bankers had their hands in their OWN pockets this morning

whats this thread about again ?

house prices about to tumble !

No arguement there

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naa

don't think prices will tumble at all.

What we will see is EA's going out of business, sellers giving up altogether and reducing supply.

.......

Here in Sheffield there seemed to be a spate of EAs closing some offices back in '08/09. But their numbers seem to have stabilised because they're now mainly lettings agents skimming off a 15% fee. The number of punters that can afford (or are willing) to buy is down, but everyone needs to live somewhere.

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I'm even more convinced of prices falling more. The wife and I have found a house thats come down a third since peak. We trotted off to the bank for a mortgage application with our 40% deposit in hand. Not sure if were going to get one or not because I'm self employed and I cant produce 3 years accounts. The fact that I'm trying to get a mortgage from a bank that I own a share in (Natwest, we all do) is even more annoying.

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Buyers are only half the problem - there are 1-3 years worth of people renting out properties they'd rather sell and 1-3 years of people who decided now was not the time to sell, or who could not sell this year.

sounds good - any evidence you can link to on this would be appreciated.

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naa

don't think prices will tumble at all.

What we will see is EA's going out of business, sellers giving up altogether and reducing supply.

Arrogance is the problem

Over 600,000 people die in the UK every year.

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sounds good - any evidence you can link to on this would be appreciated.

IMO what Catmandu said was the sole reason for the surge in supply this year. People over the last three years pulled their houses from the Market or rented out where possible to wait for the Market to pick up. Well it did to an extent and these people with now three years of financial/family/space etc pressure to move flooded the Market we had three years pent up supply start to come back as well as the usual sellers from this year.

I can't give actual proof. But I can't prove that the supply surge was not caused by the abolition of HIPS as the 'experts' will have you believe. On rightmove do a price comparison report for any postcode and you will be given a small green chart on the right hand side, of properties on the Market and new listings per month for the last 12 months. HIPS were removed on 21st May so you would expect that the few months after this should have a dramatic increase in new listings. Well it doesn't, at least not for any postcode I've tried. New listings remain at similar levels pre HIPS to post HIPS but at the same time the number of properties on the Market increases. The extra supply has been coming on all this year it's not a one off factor due to a one off event. It's slowed now as you would expect for Winter and some people will be removing their properties again. But when supply is falling by 0.5% and demand is plummeting ten times faster it's nothing to worry about.

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sounds good - any evidence you can link to on this would be appreciated.

No, I just made it up. :D But I do think it's true - see below

IMO what Catmandu said was the sole reason for the surge in supply this year. People over the last three years pulled their houses from the Market or rented out where possible to wait for the Market to pick up. Well it did to an extent and these people with now three years of financial/family/space etc pressure to move flooded the Market we had three years pent up supply start to come back as well as the usual sellers from this year.

People always come out of the woodwork to sell in spring. There are a lot of people who have failed to sell this year, have taken their house off the market and presumably hoping to sell again in spring. The areas that I look at in Rightmove have shown a big drop in property numbers recently. Expected of course, given the season, but I suspect there will be a larger than usual number coming on the market because:

- financial pressures from the govt cuts forcing people to sell up and sell up quickly

- a full year of record volume lows giving pent up selling demand.

- people who don't want to rent out finally realising that things are not getting better. (this one might be wishful thinking on my part).

- fear kicking in as houses around them sell for low prices (this one is even more likely to be wishful thinking!)

Basically though, you can only pretend that the market doesn't apply to you for a certain time. Buyers are not going to suddenly get pay rises or 100% mortgages. Vendors can only put off selling their house for a limited time. Throw IR rises in at some point to make the sums easier for the vendors and we'll get a return to the norm.

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I keep looking at the blue chart on the front page of this site, and I find it very plausible! :huh:

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Speaking of which, Mark Wadsworth posted this excellent find on the blog last Saturday:

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic-indicators/uk-house-prices/02-uk-net-mortgage-lending-00011.aspx

That chart really is a sight to behold...

In a nutshell, this collapse in NML suggests UK house prices are standing at the cliff face. If they were to follow net lending trends, residential property values could be about to halve.
I can believe it, but it will take time, imo. There is an inertia in hp.

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The price of houses is not the problem. There is no way they will go down. Once the banks start lending and things get moving we all know prices will rise. It's just time to sit tight if you want to move. Don't sell cheap and give your biggest asset away.

- Sibley., Maidstone Kent UK, 29/11/2010 21:59

:lol:

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:lol:

Poor old Sibbers. It's a bit like the guy I heard on R5 last week (or the week before) urging everyone to vote for Wagner in the X Factor as together they could defeat Simon Cowell. Look how much good that did.

When buyers have the power, prices go down. When sellers have the power, prices go up. Who is he to tell people not to push for a bargain when they move up the chain?

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Speaking of which, Mark Wadsworth posted this excellent find on the blog last Saturday:

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic-indicators/uk-house-prices/02-uk-net-mortgage-lending-00011.aspx

That chart really is a sight to behold...

It's an interesting chart, but I haven't seen any evidence that there is much correlation. There was a big drop in '05 and not much of a blip in house prices. Also these figures don't go back to GC1, so there is not even evidence that this happened in the past.

Additionally NML usually includes re-mortgaging and that fell off a cliff, while buyers also dropped but not by as much.

And it doesn't show the effect that putting IRs to zero and support for underwater borrowers had on propping up the market..

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Poor old Sibbers. It's a bit like the guy I heard on R5 last week (or the week before) urging everyone to vote for Wagner in the X Factor as together they could defeat Simon Cowell. Look how much good that did.

When buyers have the power, prices go down. When sellers have the power, prices go up. Who is he to tell people not to push for a bargain when they move up the chain?

Because he, like the other desperate muppets who have posted in that comments section, are petrified that their 'hard-earned' equity is going down the shltter.

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Speaking of which, Mark Wadsworth posted this excellent find on the blog last Saturday:

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic-indicators/uk-house-prices/02-uk-net-mortgage-lending-00011.aspx

That chart really is a sight to behold...

Had an email from an EA friend of mine asking If i'm still look to buy. I sent him that chart and here's his reply;

You don’t want to worry about charts like that! There is never a bad time to buy a house!!

He says this in jest by the way. He knows the games up & desperate to get out of the dirty world of estate agency.

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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