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guitarman001

Property-Related Investment

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Hmmm.... am I being a complete idiot here.... have a stake in BDEV and small stakes in TW and BVS. Also a stake in LLOY. All significantly linked to property (obviously). All at near-historic lows. Shares trading at big discount to NAV (ha, I hear you say!) at present. My hope was long term, these are going to rise.

Should have cut and run with Lloyds a month ago - now all showing -ve return (ok, so this is still short term so far). BDEV is the WORST of these as the shorters always have a field day with it. Have bought into this at several new 'lows' but it keeps going down, especially with sentiment - that is the key driver. Must admit have broken a few of my investment rules with BDEV.

Can these keep going lower? Will they rise given a few years... This is what I have to wonder. Any opinions? It's a strange one as I want prices to fall so I can buy, but the share prices to rise to make some profit. I had one of two aims for these - profit in a few years and use as part of deposit. Or leave in for VERY long term as part of pension pot.

Things are so hairy right now in general. And regarding the housing market - can these shares make a recovery within a 2-4 year (house) or 20+ year (pension) time frame?

2-4 year: uncertain

20+ year: I think so.....

Edited by guitarman001

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I don't understand why someone with 3000+ posts on HPC is invested in house builders and banks?

BDEV and TW etc are on their **** and at best, things are going to stay stagnant for a loooong while.

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I know, I know. Big slap on the wrist for me. They say the best time to invest is near the bottom where uncertainty and fear is at its highest; I thought we were almost there. Also, if they can bounce back in the long term then great - I'll just hold for 10+ years.

Very reluctant to take my money out now at a loss.

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I know, I know. Big slap on the wrist for me. They say the best time to invest is near the bottom where uncertainty and fear is at its highest; I thought we were almost there. Also, if they can bounce back in the long term then great - I'll just hold for 10+ years.

Very reluctant to take my money out now at a loss.

I'm not an investor nor familiar with these particular shares, but I think they were and probably still are a long term binary bet. Double or nothing :)

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Hi guitarman,

I'm sorry you are in paper loss. I cannot say whether you should hold or sell, but bear in mind that picking a bottom is difficult especially for bears. We will not be at the bottom of anything until everyone is uber bear-ish, and that includes everyone on HPC saying "Don't buy now, that house is bound to fall to zero value". Look at Detroit property as an example, would you buy a Michigan house-builder now?

It sounds like you have been trying to catch a falling knife and now need some sticking plasters. My personal experience of this tells me not to throw good money after bad. All the best.

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I was also in BDEV and had a lucky escape at 5% profit sih (iirc), at around 100p. The price fluxuations are nonsensical in terms of news etc, and pure sentiment and swing imho. I felt out of my depth.

Regarding Kyto's views, I disagree because the housing market has not acted in the same way as the house builders share prices. The housing market is not down 90% (ish) from peak!! These are clearly potential recovery stocks. These share prices reflect future potential profits for the builder, not current buyer/seller house valuations in the actual house market.

As for your strategy, it depends on the extent of you paper loss and how much you are willing to lose. I failed to catch the falling YELL knife and took a 15% loss. It hurt but I wasn't too fussed in the scheme of things, and was glad as it fell further afterwards. One option you could consider is selling with the ambition to buy in again at a lower price, or even later when its more likely to be in a sustained rise.

Another less risky option is averaging down. Don't sell up, but buy more after/if the price takes a 10-20% dip, which it often does given the price is very yoyo-ish. Its not unusual for BDEV to have a 4 day bull run and recoup 5-10%. This would mitigate your loss.

Given you have a long-term view (grats on being patient. I certainly aren't) then I suspect you may look back at this situation in years to come and think "can't believe I was worried about that, its 300p a share now!"

Just my thoughts bwtfdik!

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To be honest my total paper loss for ALL my shares total is only £200 (not including the fees etc) - so probably more like £300. Also lost £400 not long ago when the Greek market crisis occurred. Learned then that although I work in technology, tech shares are risky when it comes to investing. So not a huge loss, but not too small either when total savings stash is only £23k-ish. Overall a loss compared to a gain - but still learning as I go.

I did try to catch a falling knife with BDEV very recently, got burnt. Not big-time but you get the drift. I agree... it has to be one of the most unforgiving shares on the planet. I'm not sure how much further the price has to fall. I would much rather sell now and buy back later but no guarantees, right? I say I am patient but I admit, I check how things are going every day and the last week or two shares in banks and builders have been tumbling. It grates on me. On the one hand I'd love to keep these for retirement but on the other if prices fall I'd like to take all my monies and pay off as much of a mortgage as possible. Was tempted at one point to chuck it all back into Lloyds vantage accounts but that only around 3.2% net, nothing to write home about. My girlfriend often tells me I worry too much and should leave these lie for months without checking - maybe she's right and would be a better investor than I!

Lots of noise, especially from the PSN camp, about TW and BDEV being finished, needing another rights issue etc. I just wonder how they'll hold up when price falls really come into effect.

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Given that you have 23k to play with, you probably shouldn't take advice off a noob like me!

I have watched lots of potential recovery shares and my general 'learning point' has been that when you think they can SURELY only fall a little bit more, they fall a lot more than that. Also, they can fall to zero like CNT did. Not cool!

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Only £5k in shares. £11k in NS&I index-linked, the rest in Lloyds Vantage.

I will think on this more but for now, I'm getting away from this computer to do something... anything else!! To stop me worrying!

Some great additions to this forum this week - it's been too empty for too long. Keep it up! :)

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I get the feeling this section of the forum is for proactive types seeking solutions, whereas the main section is the refuge for doommongers. Amirite? (they won't be reading here anyway ;) )

There is always some market on the up, somewhere, so this section should always be chasing and discussing that 'something' :)

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Only £5k in shares. £11k in NS&I index-linked, the rest in Lloyds Vantage.

I will think on this more but for now, I'm getting away from this computer to do something... anything else!! To stop me worrying!

Some great additions to this forum this week - it's been too empty for too long. Keep it up! :)

£5k in shares, and all in high-risk falling knives?

/me shakes head

I've got some money in falling knives, but from a much bigger total portfolio. The good news is, the right falling knife can come good and make big profits: less than two years ago I bought a bombed out ASHM, the very next day it was the biggest faller in the FTSE 350, but soon it was rising strongly and now it's a triple-bagger. But it's a dangerous game: for every one you catch on the cusp, expect rather more than just the one that'll lose money - sometimes permanently.

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I know, I know. This is how desperate I am to get some extra money for a house purchase!

BDEV just keeps on going DOOOOOWN. I am so p!ssed off, have decided to sell all property-related investments (bar Lloyds which is obviously linked). I hate losing money, takes my overall loss to just under a grand to date. Have applied for a spreadbetting account (yes, I know....) - depositing £500 in there but plan on just getting used to the platform so that I will know how to short a share should the need arise.

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I have to seriously evaluate whether or not I'm right for investing in equities. Right now I feel I could tear my hear out.

So much for not checking up on my shares - day off as couldn't get to work so hard not to.

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Have decided to take the money from the property 'investments' and use it to pay off more of my student loan. Hell, I could have had a great holiday for the money I'd lost - gutted. Poor record... keeping my investments in BP, LLOY, GMG (hoping for good Crimbo results) and ANGM (hope that pulls through). Still going to keep an eye on the builders but as an investment I think I'll be waiting best part of a year or more for any sign of positive news...

Edited by guitarman001

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I have to seriously evaluate whether or not I'm right for investing in equities. Right now I feel I could tear my hear out.

So much for not checking up on my shares - day off as couldn't get to work so hard not to.

Put it in funds rather than shares. That way you spread your risk, and outsource the management to someone who has the time and inclination to take care of them. It's relatively easy to check up on a fund's track record, but go back a good way (like 5 years) to get their performance in different market conditions.

Or put it in blue chips like vodafone, tesco, etc and hope none of them does a BP!

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I hear you - it's one thing I haven't tried to date.

Always fancied an index tracker but I reckon the FTSE is going to drop so no point in that right now (even if it averages down through drip-feeding).

Was looking for growth/recovery but everything is so risky (of course!) right now. Glad I sold my property-related share. Also glad I sold betfair as they're TANKING. Going to keep LLOY, BDEV and GMG for now. And also keep ANGM to see how that pans out... but other than that I'm taking the rest out and putting it into my bank account for house deposit savings. At least it will be safe (or will it!!).

Had a look at the spreadbetting platform (iii) a bit more; not too bad. Trying to figure out where you set the margin/gearing. Anyway - dangerous stuff, no trades, if any, will be placed using that for a long time to come...

Back to funds. Never fancied them before as I've read so many books which advise just getting a tracker - fees for funds can be ridiculous and gains poor. Looking for a good fund can be as tricky as looking for a good share! But I take your point - spreads the risk and only one transaction cost as such (as opposed to £10 per trade otherwise - looking at my transaction costs over the year they REALLY add up).

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My shares in GAME GROUP are up 9.3% today so far! Finally a bit of blue after so much red.

Unfortunately builders are also up - could have saved myself money had I waited to sell but that's life.

Edited by guitarman001

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Hi guitarman,

I'm sorry to hear that. On reading your post I had a couple of thoughts:

1. Property / property-related investments are long term, with long cycles. I wouldn't worry about short term movements - invest based on the fundamental picture. (For that reason I am out.)

2. Try thinking of your investments as unemotionally as possible. Difficult, but achievable. If you think about them as purely numbers on a screen, rather than "I need to make x% profit by Christmas otherwise I'm skint" then making rational choices will be easier. Buy & sell based on what the facts tell you, and what you believe you can derive from them. Did you try a virtual portfolio before diving in?

3. Every time you look at an investment ask yourself this - "If I did not already hold this, would I buy it?" If not, then get rid of it. Property companies may fall into this category, and once you have disposed of them don't beat yourself up if they go up, that happens often enough, believe me.

Good luck.

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You see I've read a TONNE of books on economics, finance, investment etc... but it's only when you DO something that it REALLY sticks - for me, anyway. So I know what you're saying and should have known better. Now that I do know, for certain, I will be more careful.

I never had a practice portfolio - I believe in the power of baptism by fire!

Regarding property I looked at the shares and thought 'these HAVE to go up' - same with LLOY (which I still hold.... for now...). It may be long term but as you say the outlook is not rosy and so I wont be jumping back in unless something changes...

Sorry I can't write more just now.... but I a LOVING seeing this board more busy now...

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GUTTED!! Two days after I sold my property-related investments and they're all up - would have made a couple hundred quid. BUGGER.

Not buying in, might be a bull blip.

Console yourself with the thought you're not the only HPCer whose folly has shown up today. A small-cap holding of mine lost over 30% today after a profit warning :(

The good news, it was under 1% of my portfolio. One doesn't want big stakes on ones more speculative flutters.

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My portfolio is made entirely of speculative flutters :o

My holdings look something like this as a result:

+20%

-20%

+15%

-25%

+400%

Regarding the busyness of the investment board, it just needed a catylyst ;)

Edited by Fawkandles

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So! TW is overall up from when I sold out but I'm not too down about that. BDEV went up from 75p to 90p and is now back down at 85p. Must say I'm glad to be sitting on the sidelines for now.

I opened a spreadbetting account with iii not long ago and recently another with IG Index (for comparison) - looks like iii do slightly tighter spreads but their platform is slightly less user friendly. In any case, I'm starting to get the hang of it (no trades, just reading up and checking out the platforms) and look forward to be able to bet on shares going down as well as those going up (as a supplement to my main investing). Don't think I will ever use the available margin - my full exposure will always be in my account. Any other recommendations? In fact I must check if IGIndex do trailing stops.

Oh - and ANGM... up to 6p-ish and then one of their financiers (allegedly) has been selling off, muting the price rise on the RNS about production. Down about 15% but holding as I still think it will rise next year. I always sell out too early so this time, it's game on.

Glad I sold my game shares - they're still down on what I bought so would have lost more money - same for betfair (sold at 1440, now nearing 1000!). BP, LLOY and ANGM are my current holds.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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