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Realistbear

" Independent" O B R Report Released: It Is Glowingly Optimistic

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8167892/Office-for-Budget-Responsibility-key-points-from-its-new-forecasts-for-the-UK.html

- For 2012, the forecast has been lowered from 2.8pc to 2.6pc.
- Public sector headcount will fall by 330,000 over the next four years, rather than the 490,000 jobs previously expected to go.
- The OBR says its central forecast is: “The economy will continue to recover from recession, but at a slower pace than in the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s."
- Inflation will fall from 3.2pc this year to 1.9pc by 2012, as the coming increase in VAT and other temporary factors fall away.
- Public sector net borrowing will be £148.5bn this year, slightly lower than the £149bn previously forecast.
- Total public sector debt will peak in proportion to gross domestic product (GDP) at 69.7pc in 2013/14, before reducing to 67.2pc in 2015/16.

Provided, I suppose, the EU stays together, the US continues to recover and no one notices out debt problems. Must have been written by some academics who are out of touch with the market data. The tiny decrease from 2.8 to 2.6 GDP is laughable as it must assume growth elsewhere which is not happening other than in the US and how long will that last?

House prices/UK economy is/are still not safe and if the government think this report will stabilise the housing market they are realy well into wioshful thinking territory.

Edited by Realistbear

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Public sector net borrowing will be £148.5bn this year, slightly lower than the £149bn previously forecast.

Boy oh boy they are really sorting out that deficit. If it goes down by half a billion with 2.6% growth, I reckon we need a growth rate of over 514% to make break even.

Bring on the state default, lets get it over and done with please.

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- For 2012, the forecast has been lowered from 2.8pc to 2.6pc.

Is that minus 2.6% or plus 2.6% ? just checking.

- Public sector headcount will fall by 330,000 over the next four years, rather than the 490,000 jobs previously expected to go.

Oh great news, more dead wood manages to cling on to all our taxes for doing nowt jobs.

- The OBR says its central forecast is: “The economy will continue to recover from recession, but at a slower pace than in the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s."

Recovery, is this an extension of the same recovery that involved printing up a load of money to create fantasy growth?

- Inflation will fall from 3.2pc this year to 1.9pc by 2012, as the coming increase in VAT and other temporary factors fall away.

Who said that? 1.9% yeah riiiiight, keep on dreaming...

- Public sector net borrowing will be £148.5bn this year, slightly lower than the £149bn previously forecast.

Wow, half a billion less, I'm impressed, but does that include the £7bn we've just thrown into the black hole that is Ireland?

- Total public sector debt will peak in proportion to gross domestic product (GDP) at 69.7pc in 2013/14, before reducing to 67.2pc in 2015/16.

Impressive isn't it, we should all take out a new credit card in celebration.

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Public sector net borrowing will be £148.5bn this year, slightly lower than the £149bn previously forecast.

You've got to love that, they might as well have just left and rounded it up.

Seems the OBR has become a good cheerleader in a very short space of time.

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You've got to love that, they might as well have just left and rounded it up.

Seems the OBR has become a good cheerleader in a very short space of time.

I believe the OBR has a new Chief from when it last gave a forcast. No one told the new chief that the last cheif already had rounded the previous figures up.

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Osborne is making a statement to the house now.

He's just emphasised the rebalancing toward investment and exports, citing the need to get away from a situation (as put by the OBR in the forecast):

3.41

At the same time, households increased their residential investment spending – effectively borrowing money to purchase increasingly expensive houses.

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At the same time, households increased their residential investment spending – effectively borrowing money to purchase increasingly expensive houses.

foolishness

an increase off the bottom of the recession is hardly going to lead to what you are suggesting, it is tiny compared to the crutches being kicked away by the government

this is positive for B&Q, that's it

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foolishness

an increase off the bottom of the recession is hardly going to lead to what you are suggesting, it is tiny compared to the crutches being kicked away by the government

this is positive for B&Q, that's it

I'm not suggesting anything, Si1. Just reporting others. Make of their statements what you will.

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I'm not suggesting anything, Si1. Just reporting others. Make of their statements what you will.

oh comeon it was a selective quote and you mixed up fact and opinion - did YOU say the folloiwng words or were you quoting: "effectively borrowing money to purchase increasingly expensive houses."

??

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Steph flanders reckons the OBR thinks house prices will fall 3.1% in 2011

Good news for Mr Osborne, but with a health warning

I've roughly crunched the numbers on this.

In the June Budget report (Under Sir Alan Budd) the OBR forecast house prices rising in line with RPI inflation to end 2015. Flat in real terms.

In the November report (Under Robert Chote) the forecast equates to a fall in real terms of roughly 6.15%

All academic, but it tells a story.

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OK, I found the full context:

Crucially, Mr Speaker, the OBR forecast a gradual rebalancing of the economy as we move away from an economy built on debt to an economy where we invest and export. Again, something some people said would not happen. They expect more demand to come from business investment, which is set to grow by over 8% for each of the next four years, as well as exports, which are expected to grow on average by over 6% per year. This new model of sustainable economic growth will rebalance the economy towards investment and exports and away from an unhealthy dependence on private debt and public deficits. Bringing to an end the unsustainable situation which saw families save less and less year after year so that they ended up, in the words of the OBR report today, “effectively borrowing money to purchase increasingly expensive houses”.

so Osborne is saying we are getting AWAY from that situation. TOWARDS a real economy, AWAY from a HPI economy.

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I've roughly crunched the numbers on this.

In the June Budget report (Under Sir Alan Budd) the OBR forecast house prices rising in line with RPI inflation to end 2015. Flat in real terms.

In the November report (Under Robert Chote) the forecast equates to a fall in real terms of roughly 6.15%

All academic, but it tells a story.

the OBR always said they would not actively predict house prices, and just extend trends

this is fair enough and avoids assuming a bias in their broader economic predictions

fact was, at last OBR, house prices were steady, at current one, they are falling a little biut, they simply extrapolated at the time given current simple info

from a broader modelling perspective this is probably the most transparent way to do it

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oh comeon it was a selective quote and you mixed up fact and opinion - did YOU say the folloiwng words or were you quoting: "effectively borrowing money to purchase increasingly expensive houses."

??

It's a direct quote.

The Office for Budget Responsibility published its Economic and fiscal outlook on Monday 29 November at 13:00

Link: http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/d/econ_fiscal_outlook_291110.pdf

The sub-article in full:

3.41 The continued build-up of leverage was one reason why past forecasts proved

inaccurate. As set out in Box 3.3 the UK household sector has, in aggregate, been a

net borrower over the past decade, with the sum of household consumption and

investment exceeding income. However this borrowing was not used to finance a

consumption ‘boom’. Chart 3.6 demonstrates that consumption has been broadly

stable as a share of GDP so that the sharp decline in the saving ratio was therefore

driven by a declining household income share of GDP. At the same time, households

increased their residential investment spending – effectively borrowing money to

purchase increasingly expensive houses.

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It's a direct quote.

The Office for Budget Responsibility published its Economic and fiscal outlook on Monday 29 November at 13:00

Link: http://budgetrespons...look_291110.pdf

The sub-article in full:

well it would have been easier to know this if you used some kind of quote indication

but the full context, as I quoted above from O's speech, is again bearish on house prices, or is that what you were saying all the time?

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well it would have been easier to know this if you used some kind of quote indication

but the full context, as I quoted above from O's speech, is again bearish on house prices, or is that what you were saying all the time?

Yes it was. Apologies if my post was a little incoherent. It was typed in a hurry. Busy.

We're on the same page now. Yes?

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Yes it was. Apologies if my post was a little incoherent. It was typed in a hurry. Busy.

We're on the same page now. Yes?

yes

my reciprocal apologies to you too!

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As with so many government reports, they spend weeks, months, or more to quality check - by which time the data is old and the eurozone has been melted by North Korean suitcase zombie commu-nazis

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The OBR report irritated me today, the media were too quick to ramp it up. Driving around mostly today, with R4 on.

I'm glad the FTSE ended 1%+ down at the close. Haha, I had the last laugh.

Edited by Money Spinner

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8167892/Office-for-Budget-Responsibility-key-points-from-its-new-forecasts-for-the-UK.html

- For 2012, the forecast has been lowered from 2.8pc to 2.6pc.
- Public sector headcount will fall by 330,000 over the next four years, rather than the 490,000 jobs previously expected to go.

Seems to imply that if we work harder, rather than keep anything we work for, it will be wasted on the public sector parasites.

I guess I should give up working.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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