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ShedDweller

Do You Believe In The Cuts?

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I'm starting to be very sceptical ..

There was a you and yours program where they had a feature on Quangos and they had some fellow from the "Historical ships" agency explaining how they were now going to get their £250,000 budget from someone else ....

The child benefit cuts for Higher rate tax payers is going to be quietly dropped .. (slight miscalculation there)

The housing benefit cuts are now delayed (so they can be quietly dropped) ..

I'm losing faith .. I don't believe they were ever going to cut spending .. they just said they were to pacify the markets ..

Does anyone else believe?

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This is all very long and drawn out. The HPC should have happened in 2005, and the bottom about now.

Now, I don't expect a bottom until 2015. Far too long, and still the likely hood of nominal falls eroded by inflation. If only we discovered the gold/house ratio back in 2003!

--

Make best of your current situation, and don't pin your life to one event that may not occur when you want to. Markets just keep going despite the fundamentals.

Just think about those still waiting for the second coming Great Prophet Zarquon. They had to wait until the end of the universe.

Edited by Money Spinner

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I still expect record repossessions, the main plc builders to go kaput, interest rates to hit double figures, and much more pain to come of course.

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I'm starting to be very sceptical ..

There was a you and yours program where they had a feature on Quangos and they had some fellow from the "Historical ships" agency explaining how they were now going to get their £250,000 budget from someone else ....

The child benefit cuts for Higher rate tax payers is going to be quietly dropped .. (slight miscalculation there)

The housing benefit cuts are now delayed (so they can be quietly dropped) ..

I'm losing faith .. I don't believe they were ever going to cut spending .. they just said they were to pacify the markets ..

Does anyone else believe?

I have been inferring for a while now that the cuts will not achieve anything substantial ... they are making the right noises to buy some more time and hoping that the Irelands and Spains and Portugals will keep up far greater distractions while we continue to spend as before.. there is no political will .. even if there is, there are too many VIs and even the beaureaucracy pitted against this will .. they will exhaust the last penny from the savers and plunder all private assets before any return to rational policies is forced on them .. the game will only be up when the resource suppliers and commodity suppliers to the UK wise up and price their produce accordingly..

Last year 200 billion of our gdp was financed by magic money .. If I were selling oil to the UK I would make sure I priced that in and also the possibility of similar behaviour in future..

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Some signs that will imply that the real recovery s on its way and we are on a sustainable footing --

1) Provision for public sector pensions within the current taxation structure (ie fully funded pensions)

2) Rebaseleining of public sector salaries over 50k

3) Existing Big Builders going bust and new names who can buy up their assets at a price that makes sense for the future

4) Big Banks going bust and replaced by new players

5) BTL lending having tougher criteria than homeowner lending at all times

6) Homeowner lending restricted to 3 time joint income (verified)

7) Interest rates above inflation

8) Ability to print currency removed for all time by act of legislation

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I'm starting to be very sceptical ..

There was a you and yours program where they had a feature on Quangos and they had some fellow from the "Historical ships" agency explaining how they were now going to get their £250,000 budget from someone else ....

The child benefit cuts for Higher rate tax payers is going to be quietly dropped .. (slight miscalculation there)

The housing benefit cuts are now delayed (so they can be quietly dropped) ..

I'm losing faith .. I don't believe they were ever going to cut spending .. they just said they were to pacify the markets ..

Does anyone else believe?

It wouldnt make a damned bit of difference anyway even if the cuts had gone through. Neither kenysian stimulus or austrian austerity will get you out of a debt bust.

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I'm starting to be very sceptical ..

There was a you and yours program where they had a feature on Quangos and they had some fellow from the "Historical ships" agency explaining how they were now going to get their £250,000 budget from someone else ....

The child benefit cuts for Higher rate tax payers is going to be quietly dropped .. (slight miscalculation there)

The housing benefit cuts are now delayed (so they can be quietly dropped) ..

I'm losing faith .. I don't believe they were ever going to cut spending .. they just said they were to pacify the markets ..

Does anyone else believe?

I'm with you on this. Back earlier this year people on here (MT et al.) were saying don't count your chickens, that nothing has been cut yet despite lots of words but I thought they were being premature, now I'm not so sure. There appears to be backtracking on the back of improving gpd figures. Today it is 100,000 less public sector workers being sacked, next year it could be 200,000. We hear quangos are to be protected because of The House Of Lords motion. The £7bn "loan" we have pledged Ireland cancelled most of them out anyhow, even if they do go through.

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I'm with you on this. Back earlier this year people on here (MT et al.) were saying don't count your chickens, that nothing has been cut yet despite lots of words but I thought they were being premature, now I'm not so sure. There appears to be backtracking on the back of improving gpd figures. Today it is 100,000 less public sector workers being sacked, next year it could be 200,000. We hear quangos are to be protected because of The House Of Lords motion. The £7bn "loan" we have pledged Ireland cancelled most of them out anyhow, even if they do go through.

yes, but we make 6% interest on this. adding to the amount saved.

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yes, but we make 6% interest on this. adding to the amount saved.

That's less than real inflation, so we're making nothing. And when do we get it back? What if the euro fails? We are taking all this risk for 6%?

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That's less than real inflation, so we're making nothing. And when do we get it back? What if the euro fails? We are taking all this risk for 6%?

well. 6% is better than it deflating in £s. we can do that since we are not in the euro.

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Nothing is as it seems.

Cuts are underpinned by QE (so is that a cut, an expansion, or a wash?).

Countries that QE have stronger currencies than many that that don't or can't print.

Countries that cut like ireland and Greece end up being owned by foreigners.

Central banks say one thing, and do another, even while in secret having a different engame in mind.

Markets rise on bad news.

House prices won't mean revert.

What really can you grab hold of to 'believe in'?

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It's all looking like they're not going to be doing much. I thought they were going to drop housing benefit to 30th percentile, which would have been a massive poke in the eye for buy to letters with h.b. claimants. Now it seems that is only for NEW housing benefit claimaints.

However some cuts are coming. I now work in the (higher) education industry. Someone was saying at work on Friday, how before all these courses were fundable, i.e. we could run them and the gubbermint would pay us money, now, three quarters of them aren't fundable.

If they don't make cuts, this 'crisis' will be still be going on in ten years time. At least, in five years time, the government will still be racking up debt. So we risk a sovereign debt crisis and interest rate rises.

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I'm starting to be very sceptical ..

There was a you and yours program where they had a feature on Quangos and they had some fellow from the "Historical ships" agency explaining how they were now going to get their £250,000 budget from someone else ....

The child benefit cuts for Higher rate tax payers is going to be quietly dropped .. (slight miscalculation there)

The housing benefit cuts are now delayed (so they can be quietly dropped) ..

I'm losing faith .. I don't believe they were ever going to cut spending .. they just said they were to pacify the markets ..

Does anyone else believe?

Is all to appease the working folk who are the ones who are going to suffer the most, all this talk about getting people back to work is rubbish as there are not enough jobs to go around. They know it and do not know what they are going to do about it,

One time of day if you got someone went back to work it would create more spending power which in turn would create the need for more consumer goods which would itself create more jobs, but now someone going back to work in most cases will get little more than they are getting in benefits, and any consumer goods required for the increase in spending power will be produced abroad.

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The government is planning to increase total nominal spending every year from now until the end of the parliament. The modest 'cuts' in some departments are to fund nominal spending increases in the already bloated health and education sectors.

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I believe they genuinely want to make cuts but I also believe they can't do anything at the pace they would like to.

The fact they are even talking about stretching out the coalition across multiple parliaments (John Major's comments) should say it all. If the Conservatives genuinely thought they had any kind of mandate to make these cuts they would not be talking about 3 terms of coalition. If it was what the public really wanted a comfortable working majority would not be any problem whatsoever.

Do I believe in the cuts? As a Labour supporter I have to say I do. We know that fiscal stimulus was used to pull us out of recession. Once out of recession the stimulus needs to be tailed back as the economy grows to return us to a normal level of public spending. Darling's plans for 20% over two parliaments looked realistic (and were endorsed internationally) and the LibsCons if they lasted two parliaments, in the absence of something like IMF intervention, would do well to hit that. That is the reality.

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I've been having a quiet think about this and after my initial frustration at the recent back paddling I've come to the following conclusion.

The government want to make cuts, but can only do so on the back of growth. I believe the actual will is there and of all parties the Tories should have the most support for this from their voting base.

I think they genuinely planned to let housing drop with their introduction of the benefit/mortgage-support reforms (although I'm sure they're looking for a slow unwinding rather than a crash).

I believe they are now looking at the growth figures (probably with nudges from Merv) and are realising that things still look peaky. I reckon Merv has probably told them they need to keep public spending up, slow down the cuts, and not kick out the housing props quite so quickly.

Unfortunately I can't see much reason to think real growth is around the corner since our economy is geared up for housing speculation and public sector work.. not export and production. They could (and probably will) print up more magic money but that will just put more pressure on (import led) inflation which they are quietly trying to ignore.

So, it is my two-bit opinion that growth is going to be very low, Merv is probably going to fire up the presses, we'll have announcements of infrastructure projects, no cuts in spending / housing support.

How depressing.. hope I'm wrong :unsure:

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It wouldnt make a damned bit of difference anyway even if the cuts had gone through. Neither kenysian stimulus or austrian austerity will get you out of a debt bust.

+1 There is simply too much debt. It's either default (not going to happen) or default in stealth (mega inflation).

I've not had faith in the cuts or the ConDems for quite a while. Too much talk very little real action.

I think they are hoping that if they push everything into the future some mystical solution is going to come along and save us. Meanwhile our debt grows and our way of life become more and more unsustainable/unaffordable.

We seem to be playing a similar game with debt that we are with energy, carry on regardless and hope some mystical solution will materialise and save us. I suspect we'll end up sadly disappointed on both fronts.

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Offering the Irish 7 billion followed by the comments "We can afford it" has changed my view. I am fully aware that although painful for some, these cuts are more a statement to the markets.

7 Billion is more than the combined cuts we have been asked to endure.

It`s ok though, we can afford it :blink:

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the 7bn saved in cuts was then given to ireland at 6%. so we are profiting from our cuts. in a way.

I thought we borrowed it to lend to Ireland. :unsure:

I will believe them when I see them. ;)

Growth = Interest payments.

Edited by winkie

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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