Climate Change Experts Predict Mild Winter

[davedavies]

FAIL.

UK NEWSWINTER TO BE MILD PREDICTS MET OFFICE

Last winter the UK was brought to a stand still

Thursday October 28,2010

.

The Met Office, using data generated by a £33million supercomputer, claims Britain can stop worrying about a big freeze this year because we could be in for a milder winter than in past years.

But this is the same equipment used to produce recent official seasonal forecasts – before those bulletins were axed in March after a string of much-criticised blunders.

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These calamities included predicting a “BBQ summer” before the 2009 washout and then claiming there was only a one in seven chance of a chilly winter last year before the coldest few months for 31 years. And the new figures, which show a 60 per cent to 80 per cent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures this winter, were ridiculed last night by independent forecasters. The latest data comes in the form of a December to February temperature map on the Met Office’s website.

It baffles me how the Met Office can predict this

Senior forecaster Johnathan Powell

The eastern half of England, Cornwall, Scotland and Northern Ireland is in for temperatures above the 3.7C (38.6F) average, more than 2C warmer than last winter.

The map also shows a 40 per cent to 60 per cent probability that western England and Wales will be warmer than 3.7C (38.6F), with a much smaller chance of average or below-average temperatures.

But other experts maintain we are in for another big freeze. Positive Weather Solutions senior forecaster Jonathan Powell said: “It baffles me how the Met Office can predict a milder-than-average winter when all the indicators show this winter will have parallels to the last one.

“They are standing alone here, as ourselves and other independent forecasters are all predicting a colder-than-average winter.

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“It will be interesting to see how predictions by the government-funded Met Office compare with independent forecasters.”

The Met Office figures are generated using historical weather patterns and long-term climate data.

Helen Chivers, Met Office forecaster, insisted the temperature map takes into account the influence of climate factors such as El Nino and La Nina – five-yearly climatic patterns that affect the weather – but admits this is only a “start point” for a seasonal forecast. She said: “The map shows probabilities of temperatures in months ahead compared to average temperatures over a 30-year period.

“Forecasters produced seasonal forecasts by using the computer projection combined with values for changes in factors after October.

“Forecasts like this are never simple but the data system is really useful and has made successful forecasts for other parts of the world.”

The IBM supercomputer, unveiled in May 2009 and 90 per cent funded by Government, has 15 million megabytes of memory and can make 125 trillion calculations every second.

[Ruffneck]

The Met Office figures are generated using historical weather patterns and long-term climate data.

"Long term and historical patterns" , probably from 1970-2000.A blip when considering the age of the earth.

Now they're surprised the earth is cooling when they put those numbers in the machine?

I think this winter will be even colder than last year.

[6538]

"Long term and historical patterns" , probably from 1970-2000.A blip when considering the age of the earth.

Now they're surprised the earth is cooling when they put those numbers in the machine?

I think this winter will be even colder than last year.

Bring it on. Love a good winter, it makes life interesting.

[Orsino]

It is typical of the level of public debate about climate change that many of the most vocal participants don't seem to know the difference between climate and weather.

[athom]

It is typical of the level of public debate about climate change that many of the most vocal participants don't seem to know the difference between climate and weather.

let me see now, weather is the result of climate. Cold climate, cold weather, hot climate, hot weather. How am i doing?

Brrrrr

[the gardener]

It is typical of the level of public debate about climate change that many of the most vocal participants don't seem to know the difference between climate and weather.

Well I do know that according to the warmists weather isn't climate...unless it's the right sort of weather that is. Trouble is we keep on getting the wrong sort of weather. Warmists will still be repeating their dogma when the UK is once more covered in a kilometre thick ice sheet.

[davedavies]

It is typical of the level of public debate about climate change that many of the most vocal participants don't seem to know the difference between climate and weather.

Are you referring to the Met Office here?

[athe]

let me see now, weather is the result of climate. Cold climate, cold weather, hot climate, hot weather.

How am i doing?

Badly.

Cold climate = boring weather; hot climate = exciting weather (extremes in both directions).

[athe]

Well I do know that according to the warmists weather isn't climate...unless it's the right sort of weather that is. Trouble is we keep on getting the wrong sort of weather. Warmists will still be repeating their dogma when the UK is once more covered in a kilometre thick ice sheet.

Well I'm a 'warmist' but I still think that we're going to have a bloody cold winter due to the ongoing and unusually extended solar minimum.

[MrPin]

Well I'm a 'warmist'

No you ain't!

Don't publish the results of experiments beforehand!

[Pauly_Boy]

This is the same computer that predicts gloabal warming and hence we trust billions of pounds worth of investment on it's results .... epic fail!

[The Eagle]

This appears a lot more scientific to me:

A Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189

[Ruffneck]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11855579

Coldest night ever in Wales , -17.3 C

Where is that warmist clown fluffy666? this winter will be the coldest in over 100 years!

[davedavies]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11855579

Coldest night ever in Wales , -17.3 C

Where is that warmist clown fluffy666? this winter will be the coldest in over 100 years!

Remember, weather isn't climate unless they say it is.

[Pauly_Boy]

This appears a lot more scientific to me:

A Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189

RT news said that the russians expected this winter to be the coldest for 1000 years and that was 2-3 months ago. Obviously last month the Met Office said it would be a lovely warm winter as we were enjoy the autrum sun and the global warmers got more a vested boost. How are they explaining the 9 inches of snow and we're not even in December yet?

[athom]

Badly.

Cold climate = boring weather; hot climate = exciting weather (extremes in both directions).

OK so if we get a mini ice age it will be because of global warming? In fact what ever happens it'll be because of man made global warming? I'm glad you cleared that up.

[fluffy666]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11855579

Coldest night ever in Wales , -17.3 C

Where is that warmist clown fluffy666? this winter will be the coldest in over 100 years!

Weather != Climate

Wales != The World

[Ruffneck]

Weather != Climate

Wales != The World

If Wales was having it's hottest summer ever the BBC et al would be attributing that to global warming or climate change or global climate disruption or whatever it is they are calling it this week.

[fluffy666]

If Wales was having it's hottest summer ever the BBC et al would be attributing that to global warming or climate change or global climate disruption or whatever it is they are calling it this week.

It does seem to be an increasing trend amongst denialists to simply make up what they think 'the other side' would be saying, then argue against them based on that. Kind of like the traditional scottish-drunk-picking-a-fight-with-himself, but less reality-based.

[Riedquat]

If Wales was having it's hottest summer ever the BBC et al would be attributing that to global warming or climate change or global climate disruption or whatever it is they are calling it this week.

And since when "What the BBC says" had anything to do with what's really going on? What the media happen to decide to latch on to is irrelevent and should be completely ignored when making your mind up about an issue. If you're going to use that sort of argument you may as well make decisions based on coin tosses.

[PopGun]

It does seem to be an increasing trend amongst denialists to simply make up what they think 'the other side' would be saying, then argue against them based on that. Kind of like the traditional scottish-drunk-picking-a-fight-with-himself, but less reality-based.

I used to be a warmist, right up until the left made it their political mainstream. The doubt started to set in once their actions failed to reflect the hot air which constantly leaked from their backsides. Kind of lost its jazz after that, plus I stopped reading the Mirror and grew up.

Where's the next international global warming conference? Timbuktu? Should be a nice long plane ride.

[fluffy666]

I used to be a warmist, right up until the left made it their political mainstream. The doubt started to set in once their actions failed to reflect the hot air which constantly leaked from their backsides. Kind of lost its jazz after that, plus I stopped reading the Mirror and grew up.

Where's the next international global warming conference? Timbuktu? Should be a nice long plane ride.

Hmm. so if people you disagreed with politically put it in their manifesto to teach kids that we lived on a planet that was an (imperfect) sphere, you'd be signing up for the flat earth society the next day?

[Reck B]

Bring it on. Love a good winter, it makes life interesting.

It does doesn't it!?

It's a great reminder that we're ultimately at the mercy of the natural world, not poor GDP figures and all the other ********. The public service is pretty pathetic when it comes to dealing with cold weather though - my brother lives in Austria and they often laugh at our attempts to keep things going when it snows.

[PopGun]

Hmm. so if people you disagreed with politically put it in their manifesto to teach kids that we lived on a planet that was an (imperfect) sphere, you'd be signing up for the flat earth society the next day?

No I’d teach them to think for themselves instead. Then again that's dependant on the inquisition not returning , and accusing them of heresy against the social and political vogue.

[6538]

It does doesn't it!?

It's a great reminder that we're ultimately at the mercy of the natural world, not poor GDP figures and all the other ********. The public service is pretty pathetic when it comes to dealing with cold weather though - my brother lives in Austria and they often laugh at our attempts to keep things going when it snows.

I like a good cold, snowy winter simply because that's the way it's supposed to be! Winter isn't just supposed to be a bit chillier and damper than the summer. Other half is from Sweden and they get full-on proper winters and blazing hot summers - the way it's supposed to work. They have it well sorted there and winter tyres with metal studs are mandatory after a certain date.

I do think though that some of the criticism of how we deal with a bad winter is a bit misplaced. We don't consistently get very cold winters so councils can't really be expected to have vast amounts of equipment lying about the place that may never get used for years on end. Even at the moment, parts of the country still have no snow at all.