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Two Million: The New Homes Britain Needs To Build To Cope With The Next 25 Years Of Immigration

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1333540/Two-million-The-new-homes-Britain-needs-build-cope-25-years-immigration.html

More than two million new homes will have to be built over the next 25 years to cope with immigration, official figures disclosed yesterday.

They showed that room will have to be found to provide homes for 83,000 migrant families a year if the influx continues at the current rate.

More than a third of all the new houses and flats made available between now and the mid-2030s will be needed for individuals and families coming to Britain from abroad, the analysis said.

Clearly prices can only go up on this news.....

Once more someone has seen a trend and just extrapolated the line out to create a report.

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(From ZeroHedge)

Your criticism would be valid if it were based on just 2 data points, but net inward migration has been in the tens or hundreds of thousands for over ten years, and we've already added one or two million to the population in a very short time as a result.

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Your criticism would be valid if it were based on just 2 data points, but net inward migration has been in the tens or hundreds of thousands for over ten years, and we've already added one or two million to the population in a very short time as a result.

So your saying that the past always allows you to predict the future, the use of telegrams no doubt went up for year on year for decades, surely by now we should be sending millions of telegrams daily and those poor telegram boys run off their feet delivering them....

Just because a pattern has emerged in the past doesn't guarantee that it will continue in the future.

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Your criticism would be valid if it were based on just 2 data points, but net inward migration has been in the tens or hundreds of thousands for over ten years, and we've already added one or two million to the population in a very short time as a result.

Net household formation is also likely to be negative in the next ten years - people won't be able to afford to waltz off on their own.

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Wow that few. 2Million/25 years = 80,000 new homes per year.

Only 123000 homes were built in 2009/10 – the lowest number since 1923

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/house-and-home/property/homebuilding-figures-could-fall-below-1923-levels-2029754.html

And this assumes next immigration is a given over the next 25 years.

You only need to look to Ireland to have a clue to a future scenario for the UK in a few years time. It was on the news the other night where they interviewed a recent Irish graduate and said he would soon be off to join the other half of his classmates in London to get a decent job. What if London can't generate enough decent jobs?

I did the analysis and even in the boom immigration years of 06/07 the UK built enough house to put 2 people in per new dwelling. If you look at population growth in the UK over the last 40 years we have built enough houses for ever 1.3 persons arriving/being born.

What we have is a tremendously poorly allocated housing resources where widows and retired couples live in all the family homes. There will be a tremendous glut of family homes over the next 25 years.

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extrapolating.png

(From ZeroHedge)

This will entertain me for a long time. Rather than analyze it to th nth degree I am happy to accept that it shows up a mutitude of 'experts' and 'analysts' for what they are. Empty vessels whose greatest skill is the extension of straight line graphs.

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For what it’s worth, here’s a link to the DCLG household projections which were released yesterday:

http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/corporate/statistics/2033household1110

Note that these are for England, not the whole of the UK.

This report is based on ONS population projections from 2008. The previous release was made in March last year, and this was based on ONS projections from 2006.

The latest report projects that the number of households in England will grow by 5.8 million (27%) between 2008 and 2033, or 232,000 per year. This is a drop of 20,500 p.a. from the previous 2006-based projection.

household_projections0810.gif

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So your saying that the past always allows you to predict the future, the use of telegrams no doubt went up for year on year for decades, surely by now we should be sending millions of telegrams daily and those poor telegram boys run off their feet delivering them....

Just because a pattern has emerged in the past doesn't guarantee that it will continue in the future.

Obviously not, but adopting you approach means that nothing can be planned for. You need some basis for predicting how many schools,roads, houses, sewerage works etc. will be needed in the future. And if the population is going up by 2 million a decade then the arrows point strongly up at more and more demand.

Plus the global population may go up by a billion or two in that time frame, so if we let them, they will come. That it's almost certainly unsustainable given that our production of energy and food is a given IMO.

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Obviously not, but adopting you approach means that nothing can be planned for. You need some basis for predicting how many schools,roads, houses, sewerage works etc. will be needed in the future. And if the population is going up by 2 million a decade then the arrows point strongly up at more and more demand.

Plus the global population may go up by a billion or two in that time frame, so if we let them, they will come. That it's almost certainly unsustainable given that our production of energy and food is a given IMO.

You can't predict the future that's the problem. Schools have been closed because there weren't enough children, now we have a bit of a baby boom for various reasons, soon there will be a shortage of school places which wasn't accounted for in the planning or the graphs.

For planning purposes you need to create redundant capacity, although this potentially could be very wasteful.

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So your saying that the past always allows you to predict the future, the use of telegrams no doubt went up for year on year for decades, surely by now we should be sending millions of telegrams daily and those poor telegram boys run off their feet delivering them....

Just because a pattern has emerged in the past doesn't guarantee that it will continue in the future.

+1

The stability of the EU is threatened by a migration policy which is unsustainable. It's an uncomfortable truth that should the recent trends reverse then the effect would be an economic disaster. It’s just naive to assuming that year on year it’ll remain unaffected and only plan for an increase when in reality plans should be prepared for a reverse.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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