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Unsafe As Houses

Land Registry Figures For Oct Due Tomorrow

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-1.2% because it's snowing! :D

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8157859/Heavy-snow-to-blanket-Britain-as-bitter-cold-weather-heralds-arrival-of-winter.html

“No one is going to be immune from getting snow over the coming days.”

I'm sure homeowners are quaking at the impact the impending snow will have on the value of their home. :D

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Latest Land Registry figures due 11am tomorrow:

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices/

Care to make a prediction? Surely, it'll be negative and hopfuly greater than last month's -0.2.

Surely ... :blink:<_<

I go for -0.5% :)

Yes, Land Registry figures lag and so -0.5% is probably realistic. I'm always more excited by the Nationwide and Halifax figures, which are both out next week, and should show falls of 1-2%.

Everybody I know is getting laid off left, right and centre at the moment. We have a VAT rise and a fuel duty rise just over a month away, we have enormous public sector cuts coming- again, these lag, and follow lay-offs in the private sector as we working-class Proles no longer pay the tax and NI necessary to fund them, and claim benefits instead- I can't see property prices doing anything other than go downwards for the next 18 months at the very minimum, even without the interest rate rises which are inevitable at some stage.

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Figures will be from sales made at the height of the season because of the time lag so +0.5%

"Yes, Land Registry figures lag and so -0.5% is probably realistic. I'm always more excited by the Nationwide and Halifax figures, which are both out next week, and should show falls of 1-2%.

Everybody I know is getting laid off left, right and centre at the moment. We have a VAT rise and a fuel duty rise just over a month away, we have enormous public sector cuts coming- again, these lag, and follow lay-offs in the private sector as we working-class Proles no longer pay the tax and NI necessary to fund them, and claim benefits instead- I can't see property prices doing anything other than go downwards for the next 18 months at the very minimum, even without the interest rate rises which are inevitable at some stage. "

2 contrasting predictions with the same explanation - time lag between haliwide and land registry.

I've never been clear on how long the lag is on average between halliwide figures (mortgage approvals) and land registry (sale completions). I can't find anything on their respective websites and people on this forum have said anything from 2 up to 6 months.

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Up 0.2% and milked for all it's worth by the Daily Express.

Halliwide to then be down by around 1.2% next week, leading to a flurry of headlines about 'mixed signals in the housing market'...

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Latest Land Registry figures due 11am tomorrow:

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices/

Care to make a prediction? Surely, it'll be negative and hopfuly greater than last month's -0.2.

Surely ... :blink:<_<

I go for -0.5% :)

(apologies if there's a similar thread elsewhere)

Just over an hour to go now.

- 0.6% ?

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Does anyone know what percentage of sales are repossesssions. I realise Land Registry doesn't include those, but given sales are at an all time low I'd have thought repos would make up a larger percentage than usual making LR figures somewhat misleading.

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Although the LR figures are late and don't have the shocking outlier figures that make headlines, they are great because they're FACT (with some caveats). The media can't spin their way out of actual sales price changes, and the sample size is huge compared with other indexes.

(btw I did my dissertation on house prices in 2006, predicting a bursting bubble ... and got a bad mark!!)

Edited by Fawkandles

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  • 245 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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