Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Van

Prepare For Yoy Falls

Recommended Posts

It seems to me that Nationwide's last press release was preparing the ground for YoY turning negative very soon.

Here is the current dataset:

Oct-09/ 162,038

Nov-09/ 162,764

Dec-09/ 162,103

Jan-10/ 163,481

Feb-10/ 161,320

Mar-10/ 164,519

Apr-10/ 167,802

May-10/ 169,162

Jun-10/ 170,111

Jul-10/ 169,347

Aug-10/ 166,507

Sep-10/ 166,757

Oct-10/ 164,381

- Current YoY: 1.445%

- Oct-Nov 2009 was 0.45%, even if this month's figures are completely flat, this will bring YoY down below 1%.

- Any MoM reading below 1% will bring the YoY% below zero!

- Prices were increasing up to June 2010, so I expect the YoY fall to accelerate as we head into the spring

More: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11819030

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ooooh can we start the predictions thread early!

I think we'll see* MoM

-0.6% from Nationwide

-1.1% from Halifax

*These predictions are based on the combined readings of tea leaves & chicken entrails as used by the ForexFactory analysts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Could be there by next week on Nationwide HPI"

Not if they can help it ;).

They are preparing the UK for it - what do you think their announcement earlier this week was all about. Its not going to be very negative, but thats not going to matter... Im sure they'll find something to blame it on - maybe todays snow?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nationwide is "sold" prices and Halifax is "asking prices", am I right ?

My guess therefore is:

Nationwide: -0.9%

Halifax: +0.5%

Highlighting the increasing gulf between expectations and reality.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They are preparing the UK for it - what do you think their announcement earlier this week was all about. Its not going to be very negative, but thats not going to matter... Im sure they'll find something to blame it on - maybe todays snow?

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that they'll attempt to retain a feel-good factor over Christmas, when people are at home bored and perhaps discussing moving house, so I think we'll see +0.1% YOY rise until January, then down she goes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nationwide is "sold" prices and Halifax is "asking prices", am I right ?

My guess therefore is:

Nationwide: -0.9%

Halifax: +0.5%

Highlighting the increasing gulf between expectations and reality.

Aren't they both based on mortgage approvals?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nationwide is "sold" prices and Halifax is "asking prices", am I right ?

My guess therefore is:

Nationwide: -0.9%

Halifax: +0.5%

Highlighting the increasing gulf between expectations and reality.

No, they are both "sold" prices. Here's a recap of the different indices:

Rightmove - asking prices (new instructions only)

RICS - +/- balance of Surveyors's reports

Nationwide/Halifax - Agreed purchases, based on mortgages approved

Land Reg - Completions

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Halifax admits...

Its focus on mortgage approvals rather than completed deals means it can never be wholly accurate as some deals may fall through just before completion

It only covers a sector of the market as it is restricted to its own customers

Because it is based on mortgages it ignores any cash purchases of property

Using the characteristics of a typical house in 1983 as a starting base for the index means the figures will always be skewed. Much has changed in the property market since then, with crashes and massive inflation of prices. Also at the time Halifax had a far stronger base of customers in the North of England.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Halifax admits...

Yes, indeed. The only 100% accurate index is the Land Registry, but that is lagged by at least 6 months from where front of the market is. Nevertheless, HF/NW are well established and generally good enough to be used as accurate and accepted barometers of the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, indeed. The only 100% accurate index is the Land Registry, but that is lagged by at least 6 months from where front of the market is. Nevertheless, HF/NW are well established and generally good enough to be used as accurate and accepted barometers of the market.

Cool, makes sense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No, they are both "sold" prices. Here's a recap of the different indices:

Rightmove - asking prices (new instructions only)

RICS - +/- balance of Surveyors's reports

Nationwide/Halifax - Agreed purchases, based on mortgages approved

Land Reg - Completions

Bloo Loo? OK, I'll say it.

Mortgage approvals ARE NOT agreed purchases

They are not based on SOLD prices

Edited by MinceBalls

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hometrack (a smaller but very useful index imo) is already negative YoY:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/8100445/UK-house-prices-show-first-year-on-year-fall.html

"House prices in England and Wales dipped 0.1pc in October from a year earlier"

Here is the Halifax raw data:

Oct 2009/ 164,990

Nov 2009/ 167,451

Dec 2009/ 168,763

Jan 2010/ 169,484

Feb 2010/ 166,703

Mar 2010/ 168,433

Apr 2010/ 168,212

May 2010/ 167,287

Jun 2010/ 166,351

Jul 2010/ 167,536

Aug 2010/ 168,124

Sep 2010/ 161,974

Oct 2010/ 164,919

Oct 2009/ 164,990

Oct 2010/ 164,919

By my reckoning that's already YoY negative! Has this been picked up on yet, or have we missed it in their glossed over seaonsal adjustments?

Oct 09 - Nov 09 was +1.5%, so as that month falls out of the YoY we will head negative here too!

Happy bear days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does not include auctions/repossessions.

Cannot trust the price set out - e.g. so-called 'gifts' or 'cashback' that gets put on the registered price so that the relevant lender's LTV restrictions can be met while conveniently boosting the registered price for the developer and the purchaser.

DON'T TRUST THE LAND REGISTRY DATA WHEN LOOKING UP PRICES!

Aye, that's true. I believe they were removed a few years ago when things were really bleak.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does not include auctions/repossessions.

Cannot trust the price set out - e.g. so-called 'gifts' or 'cashback' that gets put on the registered price so that the relevant lender's LTV restrictions can be met while conveniently boosting the registered price for the developer and the purchaser.

DON'T TRUST THE LAND REGISTRY DATA WHEN LOOKING UP PRICES!

Repo auctions. I believe that it does include auctions of properties which arent distressed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"The answer is a 0.1% increase. Now what is the question?"

Is the question;

How much extra blood rushes to your ***** when you think about Krusty and Fill making the beast with two backs?

Actually, that's probably over-generous.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hometrack (a smaller but very useful index imo) is already negative YoY:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/8100445/UK-house-prices-show-first-year-on-year-fall.html

"House prices in England and Wales dipped 0.1pc in October from a year earlier"

Here is the Halifax raw data:

Oct 2009/ 164,990

Nov 2009/ 167,451

Dec 2009/ 168,763

Jan 2010/ 169,484

Feb 2010/ 166,703

Mar 2010/ 168,433

Apr 2010/ 168,212

May 2010/ 167,287

Jun 2010/ 166,351

Jul 2010/ 167,536

Aug 2010/ 168,124

Sep 2010/ 161,974

Oct 2010/ 164,919

Oct 2009/ 164,990

Oct 2010/ 164,919

By my reckoning that's already YoY negative! Has this been picked up on yet, or have we missed it in their glossed over seaonsal adjustments?

Oct 09 - Nov 09 was +1.5%, so as that month falls out of the YoY we will head negative here too!

Happy bear days.

Halifax has been YoY negative for the last two months on the SA figures. Although last month only very slighty. But the Halifax use an average of the last 3 months compared to an average of the same three months the previous year for their yoy figure which is why it's still showing a positive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that they'll attempt to retain a feel-good factor over Christmas, when people are at home bored and perhaps discussing moving house, so I think we'll see +0.1% YOY rise until January, then down she goes.

What he said.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Halifax has been YoY negative for the last two months on the SA figures. Although last month only very slighty. But the Halifax use an average of the last 3 months compared to an average of the same three months the previous year for their yoy figure which is why it's still showing a positive.

Yes.

Now, using the Halifax SA monthly data from HERE, I get the last three months to be:

Aug168,124

Sep161,974

Oct164,919

Average: £165,006

And the corresponding months for last year are:

Aug160,947

Sept163,294

Oct164,990

Average: £163,077

This gives an annual rise of £1929, or 1.18%, which Halifax have rounded to 1.2%.

Now then. Lets assume that in the next release, Halifax say the MoM figure has not moved. Nov is still £164919.

What happens to their fancy YoY?

2010:

Aug168,124

Sep161,974

Oct164,919

Nov164919

Average: £163937

2009

Aug160,947

Sept163,294

Oct164,990

Nov167451

Average: £165,245

So, if Halifax prices stay the same this month as last, their fancy YoY should give us a drop of £1308, or -0.8%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, if Halifax prices stay the same this month as last, their fancy YoY should give us a drop of £1308, or -0.8%.

Good work.

Shame it's going to need another -30% before it really makes much difference :angry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 143 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.