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okaycuckoo

Ireland Really Overdid It!

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Handy summary:

http://ftalphaville....as-it-good-for/

The number of repos in Ireland is laughable -

The level of properties repossessed remained at a very low level however, with all mortgage lenders, including sub-prime mortgage providers, being in possession of less than 400 properties at the end of the year out of a total of 792,893 mortgage accounts.

A county court in an English city of 200,000 gets through maybe 200 repos in a month, with about 20% of those ending up in the lenders' hands. So, at best, the total number of repos in Ireland over the past 3 years equates to 10 months of "business as usual" from 1/25th the population! [Figures are ballpark, your lender will be happy to deal with any queries]

Edited by okaycuckoo

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400? I find that number staggeringly low!

I find the 200 a month repos in the typical small city a staggeringly high number. Where do they all go, don't see many up for sale.

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400? I find that number staggeringly low!

Yes. Anything higher would probably result in all out rebellion.

Hopefully the rebellion comes in the form of a tax-strike and a black market that overwhelms the gubmint. The Irish are not great at surviving violent protest.

.

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European-house-prices.jpg

And people still wonder why Germany is in such a relatively strong position.

Yes I thought that too, but note also that the sudden rise in German figures is due to a change in the data source in 2003.

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I find the 200 a month repos in the typical small city a staggeringly high number. Where do they all go, don't see many up for sale.

That's my guesstimate - 1/1000. You could reverse the process - about 70,000 repo actions per year in England & Wales, so 1/800 for the population. If repo actions in Ireland result in actual possession in 1/5 of cases, then 5*400=2000 over the past 3 years - say 700 each year - which makes 1/6500 for their population.

Bear in mind I'm talking about possession actions - not actual possessions. That still leaves alot of properties actually taken into possession by the banks - not counting their extra-judicial receiverships - and I have no idea where they are in the market. They may have been dematerialised and sent to the Isle of Man.

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European-house-prices.jpg

And people still wonder why Germany is in such a relatively strong position.

Germany didn't need ponzi wealth. Why would they when they could have real wealth from selling to idiots who believed they had real money to buy their exports with.

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So doesn't this rather p1ss all over the argument that without repo's in the UK we won't get an HPC?

It does rather suggest that the accepted crash model may be faulty , though in the 1990s property slump in the UK repossession was a big factor driving the market down

Edited by realcrookswearsuits

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I'm amazed that the elites have got away with this crisis for so long, they've done an excellent job of papering over the cracks so far.

Looks like time is running out for them.

I think hotairmal suggested on another thread, bank bailouts have probably been a huge obstacle to a UK crash.

Imagine if Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley had gone into receivership. The normal firesale of assets would have ensued.

Doesn't bear thinking about, does it? :)

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I'm amazed that the elites have got away with this crisis for so long, they've done an excellent job of papering over the cracks so far.

Looks like time is running out for them.

Tis true but come the day it could get very messy. I had a house once with lots of layers of wallpaper. When I removed it to re-decorate it litterally took the loose plaster and even the brick mortar with it, lots of repair work.

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I find the 200 a month repos in the typical small city a staggeringly high number. Where do they all go, don't see many up for sale.

That's because it's wrong.

In 2009 there were 75,000 reposession in the whole country

That makes (an average) 250 per year for a 200,000 town.

And 2009 was an exceptional year. It is double the number in any previous year since 1991.

tim

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That's because it's wrong.

In 2009 there were 75,000 reposession in the whole country

That makes (an average) 250 per year for a 200,000 town.

And 2009 was an exceptional year. It is double the number in any previous year since 1991.

tim

Ouch. I said per month when I should have said per annum. The calculation from national figures is close to my 1/1000 possession/population assumption.

The point stands: Irish repo figures are a small fraction of what's happening in England & Wales. Don't know about Scotland and NI.

If Irish lenders have taken possession of only 400 properties since 2007 I assume they don't think much of their own securities. NAMA has probably taken alot of the new build stuff.

The 75000 repos for the UK in 2009 were not exceptional - they've dipped to about 55000 because the government has forced lenders to pretend that bad debts are good. I'm sure possession orders would exceed the 1990s levels if the world hadn't been saved by the rescue of NRK and RBS. There will be consequences.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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