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Well I am but a simple chap, but we used to be thinking Ireland no... Portugal unimaginable... Spain ...don't even think about it

And now appears Italy

Sh!!!!t myself ohmy.gif

Edited by correction

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Well I am but a simple chap, but we used to be thinking Ireland no... Portugal unimaginable, Spain ,,,don't even think about it

And now appears Italy

Sh!!!!t myself ohmy.gif

The UK too. The nature of our crisis will be different, we can print money. But the UK will have its moment too if policies don't change.

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If PWC are right we shouldn't even mention the 10TR debt lurking in our mud.

We can inflate our debt away.

I'm not saying that we would want to, but the fact that we can stops the speculators going after us (because it's not the result that they want)

tim

Edited by tim123

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Well I am but a simple chap, but we used to be thinking Ireland no... Portugal unimaginable... Spain ...don't even think about it

And now appears Italy

Sh!!!!t myself ohmy.gif

Why Italy all of a sudden? can you feel something in your waters or is there something a bit more tangible behind this post?.

Edited by slurms mackenzie

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Ticker Name 5Y Today Daily Chg (%)Daily Chg (bps) Weekly Chg (bps) Monthly Chg (bps)

USGB Utd Sts Amer 42 6.0% 2 3 4

JAPAN Japan 55 -3.5% -2 -2 0

DBR Fed Rep Germany 39 4.0% 1 1 6

UKIN Utd Kdom Gt Britn & Nthn Irlnd 62 3.9% 2 3 8

FRTR French Rep 84 4.1% 3 4 16

ITALY Rep Italy 191 4.7% 9 9 23

Italy has been high for a while now 191bps or 1.91% per year of a 5 year loan to insure against default

UK is 0.62%.

IRELND Rep Irlnd 550 4.8% 24 32 107

ANGBKL Anglo Irish Bk Corp Ltd 1099 -3.5% -40 40 228

AIB Allied Irish Bks PLC 864 -2.6% -23 -14 252

Hope Osborne knows what he's doing.

Edited by northwestsmith2

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Good to get the thread "title claim" in early. :)

(This will likely be a sixty page thread at some point.)

I've already put a marker down on Italy as the Euro 'suprise' candidate in another thread a couple of months back for that very reason.

One can never be too early. :D

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I'm going for Yorkshire.

Hopelessly uncompetitive and tied to a fixed exchange rate with London and the South East.

Apparently London and the South East exports more to Yorkshire than to Brazil, Russia, India and China put together.

And they're losing patience for bailing them out all the time.

This post should be nominated.

Keep them coming, buddy!

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I thought with all the "nothing to see here" excitement in Spain and Portugal, this deserved a small bump.

Any Italian denials yet?

e8llxc.jpg

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http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/29/419071/mama-mia-che-cose-questo/

The yield was moving higher at a quick pace, on rumours that Italy’s expected auction of either €5.5bn worth of 3- and 11-year BTPs or €1.5bn worth of 7-year CCTs had not gone well at all on Monday.

The spread between Italian and German bonds before the auction was heading to 179bps, according to Bloomberg — and post-auction has breached another record euro lifetime high at 185bps, according to Reuters.

oopsy

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Berlusconi could sell his porn stash. Pay off the debt in a week.

He has no need for porn, since he has limitless supply of the real thing (young willing girls that are happy to sleep their way into a glamourous show girl job in Berlusconi's TV channels).

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Analysis-Euro-debt-crisis-reuters_molt-2864601039.html?x=0

Analysis - Euro debt crisis - Italy no longer quite so safe
Gavin Jones, 16:35, Tuesday 30 November 2010
ROME (
Reuters
) - Italy has so far largely avoided the debt crisis that has engulfed Greece and Ireland (Berlin: IIK.BE - news) despite having the region's weakest growth record, a huge public debt and notoriously unstable politics.
That suddenly seems in danger of changing...../
Italian officials tried to reassure markets on Tuesday as concern rose that the euro zone's third largest economy is becoming embroiled in the region's spreading debt crisis, with possibly unmanageable consequences.
Unimpressed, investors pushed the interest rate spread between Italian bonds and benchmark German Bunds to a euro-lifetime high as they focussed more on Italy's weaknesses than its strengths.
"Now it is looking like a liquidity crisis on the government bond market, which is critical for Italy with its huge refinancing needs," said Citibank analyst Vito Corleone...../
Italy has one of the highest absolute debt levels in the euro zone and meeting its refinancing needs for the next three years would cost in excess of
800 billion euros
.
:o

More a case of the spotlight not having shone on their mess yet.

Amazing how well the Euro is holding up under all this speculation and soaring bond markets. Amazing.

Edited by Realistbear

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I'm going for Yorkshire.

Hopelessly uncompetitive and tied to a fixed exchange rate with London and the South East.

Apparently London and the South East exports more to Yorkshire than to Brazil, Russia, India and China put together.

And they're losing patience for bailing them out all the time.

Well ... if you squint at the economic fiscal policy of the coalition government, you could argue ... what with all these HB caps and welfare cuts ... they kinda have lost patience. :unsure:

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From what I can see it's soon a question of credibility, yes the Euro Central bank keep bailing out etc, but there has to be a face saving precipice.

Plan B isn't that far away in my opinion

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We can inflate our debt away.

I'm not saying that we would want to, but the fact that we can stops the speculators going after us (because it's not the result that they want)

tim

Didn't our man Gordon make most of the debt index linked?

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No, but I intend to - thanks.

I got the 'heads up' in about 2003/4 when someone on an artificial intelligence forum answered someone's question: "Where should I invest?", with the (then cryptic to me) answer: "Kondratieff Winter is coming - buy gold and head for the hills". Of course, I had to look it up, and the rest is history.

That unknown chap/chappess changed my life - God bless him or her! :)

Looking at the "seasons", it seems that real estate is the only one that works for at least three of the four.

I will probably be burned at the stake for saying this but is it possible that for unlevered investors, real estate is the least worst investment for all seasons?

Of course, most real estate investors are highly levered and most of them will get wiped out in "winter". We are probably in early December now. Early March was probably in mid 2000.

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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