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Bbc: Nationwide Warns House Prices Will Likely Fall Further


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because the previous government won't allow prices to fall, SMI, no repossessions plus lots of VI in the MSM eg Boulger suggesting you take your grannies savings and use them for a deposit. USA also has jingle mail (post back the keys and walk).

Corrected.

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They are having to admit the game is over, as no one is getting a mortgage at the moment they have nothing to lose by admitting it :(

Not quite, as freetrader illustrated today about 48000 people each month get a mortgage and this appears to be ongoing.

So I think it depends on what happens with stock levels. It does seem reasonable to assume they will increase, im surprised there are not signs of more BTL stock appearing on the market in advance of the 30th percentile ruling.

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Another season why prices haven't fallen. We have become a nation of landlords. Case in point. Friends I mentioned in another thread who had a 10k under asking price, just shy of 10%, have not accepted as they "cannot afford to accept it" they 've alreay lost 10k from price they paid. They are renting it out instead, and rent where they need to move to. Job relocation. My wife speaks to them not me, and she won't tell them they can't afford to not take the offer!

Btl is so easy now that people do not need to sell, instead let it out and pays for the mortgage. It does look like only ir hikes will bring this down.

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My BSoc says they will lend up to 4x my salary! I'm not sure I want to borrow that much! :blink:

That's what they tell you. They can talk the talk but can they walk the walk, have you actually tried to borrow anything near 4x salary recently. From personal experience they are not lending even close to what the glossy brochures are leading you to believe.

Before someone reels off 48,000 a month getting mortgages all is rosie etc etc the man on the ground is not seeing it happen.

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so, 90bn to Irish Banks, 9 bn from us for Irish Banks, The FED being the largest holder of US debt, lending getting tough, and Alistair DArling stating that the DEFICIT is the big problem.

Id say, the ship was definitely holed, and the Captain has called for the pumps to Maximum.

Next wave could overwhelm.

Frightening - but very believable.

I reckon there are many, many lights burning into the night right now as the boffins and banksters of all types try and work out a way to fill every hole in the dyke with a finger..... :ph34r::unsure::rolleyes:

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The message seems to be "house prices will fall, but a return to the big falls of 2008 are unlikely." Well, I have to ask why not?

Rewind back to 2007, and the message was "house prices will fall, but only by a bit"

When the falls get going, there is nothing to stop them getting worse. Everyone seems to be lulled into a sense of security that even if we are in for a soft patch, it won't be as bad as 2008. Why not? In my view it could easily become as bad as 2008 again very quickly. As soon as people see their house prices falling they will dump them, and another round of tightening and undercutting will begin, and it all accelerates down. Bear market pschyology.

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you forget Van thats not what we have witnessed so far. When property drops and individuals don't get the prices they want/ expect in this inflated market they tend to either take them off the market or wait and see... they have that option whilst interest rates are so low.

Until people start loosing their jobs and they are forced to sell/ interest rates go up we won't see drops in prices in any significant way.

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you forget Van thats not what we have witnessed so far. When property drops and individuals don't get the prices they want/ expect in this inflated market they tend to either take them off the market or wait and see... they have that option whilst interest rates are so low.

Until people start loosing their jobs and they are forced to sell/ interest rates go up we won't see drops in prices in any significant way.

But then estate agents can't make any sales and starve, so it is in their interest to talk the vendor into lowering their prices. You can't have a standoff forever.

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The message seems to be "house prices will fall, but a return to the big falls of 2008 are unlikely." Well, I have to ask why not?

Rewind back to 2007, and the message was "house prices will fall, but only by a bit"

When the falls get going, there is nothing to stop them getting worse. Everyone seems to be lulled into a sense of security that even if we are in for a soft patch, it won't be as bad as 2008. Why not? In my view it could easily become as bad as 2008 again very quickly. As soon as people see their house prices falling they will dump them, and another round of tightening and undercutting will begin, and it all accelerates down. Bear market pschyology.

And, crucially, without the ammo to halt the slide - no more IR cuts possible, mainly, plus the very real prospect of a D-D recession.

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But then estate agents can't make any sales and starve, so it is in their interest to talk the vendor into lowering their prices. You can't have a standoff forever.

Sorry to throw a little reality onto your theory. Postcode I'm looking to buy in, for Aug-Sep, 105 sold – LR data. Cheapest a flat at £84k, most expensive £800k. One postcode out of the half dozen or so the EA's round here service. They're not starving.

And as a little anecdotal for you, one sold 01/08/08 at £315k, sold again 01/09/10 for £300k. So from more or less peak to today. It's a 3 bed terrace btw. That's the crash we're seeing in sunny Essex. For people living outside of scumthorpe, there is a wall of money and EA's aren't starving.

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Sorry to throw a little reality onto your theory. Postcode I'm looking to buy in, for Aug-Sep, 105 sold – LR data. Cheapest a flat at £84k, most expensive £800k. One postcode out of the half dozen or so the EA's round here service. They're not starving.

And how many did they sell in Aug-Sep last year? or the year before that, or in the good old days of 2000-2007? Without a basis for comparison your example means jack sh1t.

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And how many did they sell in Aug-Sep last year? or the year before that, or in the good old days of 2000-2007? Without a basis for comparison your example means jack sh1t.

"But then estate agents can't make any sales and starve"

Down on peak, sure, down on the last few years, maybe, but starving, not a chance.

edit to add:

2009 162

2008 88

So not a lot has changed in 3 years.

Edited by feed
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The message seems to be "house prices will fall, but a return to the big falls of 2008 are unlikely." Well, I have to ask why not?

Rewind back to 2007, and the message was "house prices will fall, but only by a bit"

When the falls get going, there is nothing to stop them getting worse. Everyone seems to be lulled into a sense of security that even if we are in for a soft patch, it won't be as bad as 2008. Why not? In my view it could easily become as bad as 2008 again very quickly. As soon as people see their house prices falling they will dump them, and another round of tightening and undercutting will begin, and it all accelerates down. Bear market pschyology.

+1

"a return to the big falls of 2008 are unlikely". Well of course; the economic climate is so much more stable now than it was back then...

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"But then estate agents can't make any sales and starve"

Down on peak, sure, down on the last few years, maybe, but starving, not a chance.

edit to add:

2009 162

2008 88

So not a lot has changed in 3 years.

Sure. Let's cut your salary by 30-40% over 2 years and see if you feel that not a lot has changed.

:rollseyes:

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Sure. Let's cut your salary by 30-40% over 2 years and see if you feel that not a lot has changed.

:rollseyes:

Your argument is fine, if EA's don't sell, they don't turn a profit and go out of business, and it'd be nice to see EA's pushing vendors to drop prices, but whilst there are enough sales, and there sure are enough around me, then this isn't going to happen. EA's simply aren't starving.

I could see how you could argue that they could carry on with momentum for a year or so after the boom, but 3 years? Really, if they need 2006/2007 levels of sales to stay in business, then why are they still here?

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Your argument is fine, if EA's don't sell, they don't turn a profit and go out of business, and it'd be nice to see EA's pushing vendors to drop prices, but whilst there are enough sales, and there sure are enough around me, then this isn't going to happen. EA's simply aren't starving.

I could see how you could argue that they could carry on with momentum for a year or so after the boom, but 3 years? Really, if they need 2006/2007 levels of sales to stay in business, then why are they still here?

What is "enough"? What are 2006-2007 sales numbers like?

I'll tell you what will happen. Sales will fall further. Then a few more EAs will lose their jobs. Then the remaining EAs will say "sh1t, I better make some sales here or I'm toast!" Then they will phone around and desperately tell vendors to chop their prices, or they'll take them off their books. The vendor will go to another agent and be told the same thing. Buyers will hold back further because prices appear on the slide and the continuing squeeze on incomes. Eventually the penny will drop that ONLY BARGAINS SELL IN A FALLING MARKET.

Edited by Van
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you forget Van thats not what we have witnessed so far. When property drops and individuals don't get the prices they want/ expect in this inflated market they tend to either take them off the market or wait and see... they have that option whilst interest rates are so low.

Until people start loosing their jobs and they are forced to sell/ interest rates go up we won't see drops in prices in any significant way.

When people realise that the loans will never ever be there again for someone else to pay anywhere near what they paid, then they will panic. This site is way ahead of the herd, sheeple need time to process what is going on, then sh*it their pants.

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Your argument is fine, if EA's don't sell, they don't turn a profit and go out of business, and it'd be nice to see EA's pushing vendors to drop prices, but whilst there are enough sales, and there sure are enough around me, then this isn't going to happen. EA's simply aren't starving.

I could see how you could argue that they could carry on with momentum for a year or so after the boom, but 3 years? Really, if they need 2006/2007 levels of sales to stay in business, then why are they still here?

They are mainly dealing in rentals? and unlike BroonCunt maybe put something aside in the good times?

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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