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cakehead

Hpc As Counter Culture

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Someone yesterday (I can't find the damn thread) described HPC as a millennial cult for rationalists. Is this a trivialisation of the position or has economics become the new druidry? Is renting the new dropping out? Are poster's seeking an economic blank page, a new financial Jerusalem or a simple realignment of income multiples and a continuation of society as it was?

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HPC is probably the best website I've ever been on, full of not just news about the housing market but all aspects of the world at work. Everybody is very intelligent and everybody is very clued up - high five, HPC!!

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P.S. I don't know about the rest of you but I think the largest part in all of this current mess is due to.... property speculation!! Just look at what has happened because of it, things are set to get worse, yet nothing seems to change.

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Revolution and a metaphorical blood-letting of the established order.

I've come a long way since wanting to be able to afford a three bed with a garage and garden at a reasonable price.

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I ask the question because I, like yesterday's poster, sense a desire for something more than house prices to change. Without root and branch modification of the banking industry there can be no reason for the same thing not to happen again. Also while old left and right dogma becomes increasingly meaningless when neither side seem capable of doing a damn thing to correct it, houses have become the new focus for protest and national discontent.

Edited by cakehead

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Since when was being rational a bad thing? :blink:

I think the poster described it as 'post Enlightenment millennarianism'. So, the same sort of thing as the Catholic Apostolic Church, Jehova's Witnesses, Joanna Southcott and her sealed box, etc.

I think there's an element of truth in it. I've found myself getting annoyed with the entire state of life in the UK, not just house prices, and thinking that HPC is going to be a kind of refiner's fire, getting rid of all the dross.

It's nonsense of course, as nothing much ever changes, and like all millenarians when the 'event' doesn't happen, the cult either breaks up or it gets indefinitely put forward to the future. I think most of us on HPC are rational enough to see this though and treat the site as a useful non-mainstream, non-establishment discussion point - apart from a few tinfoil hatters.

Edited by Austin Allegro

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I think the poster described it as 'post Enlightenment millennarianism'. So, the same sort of thing as the Catholic Apostolic Church, Jehova's Witnesses, Joanna Southcott and her sealed box, etc.

I think there's an element of truth in it. I've found myself getting annoyed with the entire state of life in the UK, not just house prices, and thinking that HPC is going to be a kind of refiner's fire, getting rid of all the dross.

It's nonsense of course, as nothing much ever changes, and like all millenarians when the 'event' doesn't happen, the cult either breaks up or it gets indefinitely put forward to the future. I think most of us on HPC are rational enough to see this though and treat the site as a useful non-mainstream, non-establishment discussion point - apart from a few tinfoil hatters.

That's a very good take on HPC. It's interesting that an earlier generation of rebels, the apocalyptically inclined, the disenchanted, those who felt screwed over by The Man and escaped to cheap country hovels, are now sitting on a pile of money should they chose to realise it. That lack of any alternative which has been the lot of young people is responsible for a lot of discontent and houses have become the conduit for it.

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That's a very good take on HPC. It's interesting that an earlier generation of rebels, the apocalyptically inclined, the disenchanted, those who felt screwed over by The Man and escaped to cheap country hovels, are now sitting on a pile of money should they chose to realise it. That lack of any alternative which has been the lot of young people is responsible for a lot of discontent and houses have become the conduit for it.

I think anything that has some truth and meaning in it tends to survive, though in different forms. If you take Christianity for example, it started as millenarian movement expecting the imminent end of the world; when the 'event' failed to happen it got postponed indefinitely and finally (for liberal Christians, anyway) became a spiritual rather than physical millenium, happening right now rather than in some unspecified point in the future.

I think the HPC website/movement, whatever you want to call it, is going through a similar process, albeit in a much more condensed form.

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I'm looking for a return to sensible lending and affordable ratios of salary to loan.

Isn't that the situation now?

BTW I just don't buy into the 3x-salary-is-the-norm idea.

3x mortgages were present at a time when income tax was 33% and interest rates were 10%. Back then you probably couldn't afford anything higher even if they would lend it to you.

Now, with income tax as low as 20%, and interest rates more like 5%, it's not really comparable.

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Besides, how does one get 'off' on being a dormant member of a forum for 3 years before returning like a prodigal son to belittle the good members of our humble church?

I originally joined to look something up and lurked for a short time. Some of the trends I couldn't identify with, young vs old, economist as guru and especially the idea that once the government changed everything would be alright. Now the govt has changed I wondered how HPC members had responded and whether posters had left the board, bought houses and if economic deliverance was believed to be immanent or deferred.

The phenomenon of house ownership has interested me since spending the first twenty years of my life in an unheated slum with no hot water or sanitation, and returning to live in similar places at intervals since. As many people I went to school with were from middle class homes the sense of being outside housing norms and the opinions that came with it, British house culture has continued to fascinate.

Edited by cakehead

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I ask the question because I, like yesterday's poster, sense a desire for something more than house prices to change. Without root and branch modification of the banking industry there can be no reason for the same thing not to happen again. Also while old left and right dogma becomes increasingly meaningless when neither side seem capable of doing a damn thing to correct it, houses have become the new focus for protest and national discontent.

The house price question turned out to be a subset of a wider question about social responsibility at all levels - corporate, political, personal, and each seems to want to pass the buck to the other, or at least shoot the messenger, again at all levels including family and friends.

I am frustrated, and expect I will be so forever, at the domination of social and commercial intercourse by sheeple, I can't look these people in the face anymore, I feel like a hermit.

I think we had a mass outbreak of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning-Kruger_effect

I do have a desire for this to change but I feel it won't. I gave up being nice about it about 3 years ago.

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Now, with income tax as low as 20%, and interest rates more like 5%, it's not really comparable.

Tell me about it, I'm loving this low tax libertopia we live in now. Good job there's no 11% NI, soon-to-be 20% VAT, £1400pa average council tax paid out of already-taxed income (up from £564 in 1997), 58p/litre fuel duty (plus VAT), 49p/pint beer duty (plus VAT), £78 passport renewal, £3k pa tuition fees (soon to be £7k) and so on. Also basic costs like food, energy, and train and bus fares are so much cheaper now relative to wages. Given how low the cost of living is, I'm surprised house prices aren't even higher than they are.

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Isn't that the situation now?

BTW I just don't buy into the 3x-salary-is-the-norm idea.

3x mortgages were present at a time when income tax was 33% and interest rates were 10%. Back then you probably couldn't afford anything higher even if they would lend it to you.

Now, with income tax as low as 20%, and interest rates more like 5%, it's not really comparable.

This is true, though my ire is with the purchase price of the home, not it's affordability on a debt based purchase.

It purely doesn't make any sense to me - I can understand to others it might. I will never have a mortgage - so I look at the price in comparison to how I have to live to save up and buy it outright. Considering how much I need to purchase what I would deem an average 3 bed semi detached home in my area, it simply doesn't represent value for money compared to renting and the opportunity cost of tying up the capital in one particular asset.

Saving 10K per year since I was 20 and seeing the prices of that home go up by more than that p/a was galling and my cash no longer buys me what I believe it should in housing terms. I might as well wait and see what happens.

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The situation is almost as bad for people who bought a house well within their means, expecting to trade up when their salary increased or children arrived, only to see the £20k gap increase to 100k or more and their 'starter home' become in all likelihood their only home.

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3x mortgages were present at a time when income tax was 33% and interest rates were 10%. Back then you probably couldn't afford anything higher even if they would lend it to you.

Income tax was at 33% in the 90s?

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It's up to you if you want to cherry pick dates, but when my parents bought their first house, income tax was 41%.

And MIRAS? or was it double MIRAS? Or something else? Or they lived in a hole in the road? Or they had the smallest violin in the world?

Edited by daiking

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The situation is almost as bad for people who bought a house well within their means, expecting to trade up when their salary increased or children arrived, only to see the £20k gap increase to 100k or more and their 'starter home' become in all likelihood their only home.

They've had plenty of opportunity to sell out and move on.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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