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the_duke_of_hazzard

Is The Argument Won?

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Is the central debate on "will there be a house price crash" now over?

It seems there's little debate on the subject here now. I remember when bulls feverishly argued with bears on "up or down?" topics. Now it's a case of how much and how fast it will fall by.

Even dogbox is a bear now - talk about poacher turned gamekeeper!

Now the "oil shock" has provided the trigger the history books will no doubt blame the crash on, and the "exogenous factor" excuse the chancellor needs to pass the blame and smooth his move next door, this site is now the mainstream.

Can we find a new orthodoxy to counter?

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The way I understand it is that high oil prices are only temporary and will probably have come down in 6 months or so – when they do it will be represented in the cpi index (obviously another 6 months down the road from that) and they could probably lower interest rates again – this could easily slave off a crash.

Although I’m betting lots of job will be lost by then and the crash will be under way.

I’m waiting to after the winter before I would say crash or no crash

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:lol: I think the least the bulls could do is to have the decency to come back and admit you were all right!

Theres a house come onto the market near me in an area that would be ideal, although the house isn't my dream house. Houses very rarely seem to come on the market there (well,until recently anyway as theres now about half a dozen been put on in the last week) and is reasonably priced at £133k though still too dear for us at the moment as we will be sticking to 3.5x repayment mortgage.

I shall be watching to see if the price drops in the next 6 months with interest.

Hopefully, in the meantime, more houses will be put on the market :D

Edited by libitina

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Is the central debate on "will there be a house price crash" now over?

No, No, No and No.

I believe the reason why there are few bulls on this website now is because the vast majority of people who have bullish views of the housing market do little research and don't type 'house price crash' into Google to see if there is a problem.

Most bulls know there isn't a problem so they don't bother coming on websites like these, they're too busy MEWing and spending.

We have had hundreds of bullish television programmes over a period of years so that if you missed one you would surely end up watching another. Now after the Trevor McDonald programme, one programme, everyone seems to think the battle is won.

The arguments in favour of a house price crash have not been won amongst anyone I know. :angry:

I have been told in the last few days, 'the recent correction in the housing market has ended now, prices have fallen as far as they are going to. You really should buy now because this is as low as prices are going to be for a very long time.'

The bullish arguments are still there they're just not coming onto this website, with the exception of handful of HPC posters.

Any ideas on how to get bulls to visit this website when they don't see the need for any debate? :huh:

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I dont think anyone is saying prices will go up anymore in the next couple of years, so i guess its just a case of if they will fall in nominal value and by how much.

...and in the meantime, don't forget: renting is dead money.

Regards,

Kirstie & Phil :D

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The arguments in favour of a house price crash have not been won amongst anyone I know.  :angry:

Any ideas on how to get bulls to visit this website when they don't see the need for any debate?  :huh:

They did visit a couple of days ago (Friday) on mass! It was the same day they abruptly withdrew those pretty purple 'reduced' banners from rightmove. All seemed very coordinated. Since you obviously weren't here, it was a bit of fun!!!All but the genuine Bulls seem to have left again.

Anyway, its not an arguement, its just inevitable. I know that I would like to save FTBs from themselves but it ain't going to happen and were now heading down the roller coaster, so sit back and enjoy this bit of the ride :D

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:lol: I think the least the bulls could do is to have the decency to come back and admit you were all right!

How can you say that the bulls were wrong?

The house price index says that UK house price was £180465 in Jan but is now £186207 in Jul – not exactly a crash?

1.pdf

1.pdf

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The way I understand it is that high oil prices are only temporary and will probably have come down in 6 months or so

Er no.

Current consensus forecasts are $70 per barrel over winter with prices not falling for $60 pb at any point next year.

Why do they 'have' to come down? Prices will do what supply and demand cause them to, they don't have to do anything.

GS are forecasting oil hitting $100 pb before the decade is out i.e. within the next 5 years, IMO around 2007/8.

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How can you say that the bulls were wrong?

The house price index says that UK house price was £180465 in Jan but is now £186207 in Jul – not exactly a crash?

Point is though that HPI hasnt reached zero yet- the real change will only come when that happens and hopfully that will be soon!

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Er no.

Current consensus forecasts are $70 per barrel over winter with prices not falling for $60 pb at any point next year.

Why do they 'have' to come down? Prices will do what supply and demand cause them to, they don't have to do anything.

GS are forecasting oil hitting $100 pb before the decade is out i.e. within the next 5 years, IMO around 2007/8.

Again the way I see it is –

1 they will pump more oil

2 they cannot refine more oil – but the cost of oil will lower consumption

The supposed global slowdown is also going to reduce demand – I can not see oil staying over 60 $ forever

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Point is though that HPI hasnt reached zero yet- the real change will only come when that happens and hopfully that will be soon!

My point was that £6000 increase in house prices is not a crash

It went up by £2000 for the last 2 months – I don’t think this index will go negative

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No, No, No and No.

I believe the reason why there are few bulls on this website now is because the vast majority of people who have bullish views of the housing market do little research and don't type 'house price crash' into Google to see if there is a problem.

No us bulls are busy Buying !Only bears have time to google and dream of the great HPC !

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Nice avatar BTW, kissmyb :)

I’m sure that nearly everyone, except perhaps a few remaining uber-bulls, now accepts that the boom is over, but what happens next? A full blown HPC seems just as remote as a soft landing, so the objective now, as others have said, is more about trying to gauge the amount of unwinding expected, i.e. what will be the base price/earning ratio (and price!) when the froth has subsided by around 2009? It’s a bit like asking ‘how high will the water rise’ at the start of a flood, only in reverse, obviously :P.

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How can you say that the bulls were wrong?

The house price index says that UK house price was £180465 in Jan but is now £186207 in Jul – not exactly a crash?

Some choice quotes from this fine mainstream media find:

"But this is not always the case. Sometimes renting can save you money and leave you better placed to enter the housing market at a later date."

"In a recent survey by the Association of Residential Letting Agents, two out of three renters said that they could not afford to buy a house, while one in three said they were waiting for prices to fall. "

"A BUYERS' market sounds great, but what it really means is that there are lots of homes on the market that are not selling. "

Obviously it just takes some people longer for the cogs to kick over!!

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Why would anyone think the argument was won for the bears?

Won for the bulls, maybe.

Enough previously bear posters have come on recently & posted their now bullish views to convince me that most people have realised it was all wishful thinking & that a weak market doesn't mean an HPC.

Take Monkey as the most recent example. The fact that he so sincerely says he has bought a house is conclusive evidence that he doesn't expect to lose any money at all from his move. Think about that, one of the most prolific HPC forum promotors has now retired because he feels he got everything out of it that he can.

How much did he get out of it? 10 grand??

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Why would anyone think the argument was won for the bears?

Won for the bulls, maybe.

Enough previously bear posters have come on recently & posted their now bullish views to convince me that most people have realised it was all wishful thinking & that a weak market doesn't mean an HPC.

Take Monkey as the most recent example. The fact that he so sincerely says he has bought a house is conclusive evidence that he doesn't expect to lose any money at all from his move. Think about that, one of the most prolific HPC forum promotors has now retired because he feels he got everything out of it that he can.

How much did he get out of it? 10 grand??

I, too, was amazed he thought £10,000 was a sufficient amount.

I always thought he was a simple minded buffoon. Turns out I was right.

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I, too, was amazed he thought £10,000 was a sufficient amount.

I always thought he was a simple minded buffoon. Turns out I was right.

To be fair to him, (if memory serves) he said something about not being sure whether it was "correct" to buy now, but that it was hte right time to buy for him, implying he wasn't necesssarily picking the bottom. Buffoon's probably about right though.

Perhaps I was concentrating a bit much on London, where there's little doubt prices are falling in nominal terms. In parts of the country prices are probably still rising, I understand. The arguments here are over though. No-one talks about house prices anymore. It's a blessed relief.

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This one is literally just around the corner from me, it's dropped by £20k today! Hurrah!!

Still too expensive for what it is,and also what needs doing on it,  but its a start.

Should we ring up and offer £80k? pmsl.

Does it include scenic views of the M54? (aka Silverstone for coppers)

It's placed nicely in the voodoo zone when it comes to stamp duty, there goes another £10k reduction!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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