Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
gruffydd

Just Back From Ireland Completely Shellshocked

Recommended Posts

This is as close to complete social breakdown I've ever seen - was in Ballina, then Derry, then Wexford, then Dublin.

The RAGE was palpable. People literally shouting at you in anger about everything. Complete nightmare.

You may not know this yet but WSJ has just said most likely scenario is a major downgrade by Moodys, Mult-notch, possibly to near junk.

So we have bailout, then massive downgrade which will undo downgrade. And now a general election as government crumbles with Sinn Fein booming in the polls suddenly.

Rumour had it that without bailout announcement, cash would've stopped coming through banks within hours.

Sitting here feeling very sad, very depressed. Very miserable. I have seen a a society in freefall and finding it mentally very difficult :-(

Edited by gruffydd

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Failsal Islam tweet:

faisalislam Irish sovereign credit rating likely to be downgraded sharply, though
not to junk
, says Moodys. (Ht @lgology) 22 minutes ago

Not yet, anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is that really the case or is it via the goggles of HPC?

I know lots of people who live and work in Ireland and they seem to be getting on with it. Still in stable jobs, road are busy, restaurants and bars still seem to be doing a good trade.

There doesn't even seem to have been much in the way of protest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is as close to complete social breakdown I've ever seen - was in Ballina, then Derry, then Wexford, then Dublin.

The RAGE was palpable. People literally shouting at you in anger about everything. Complete nightmare.

You may not know this yet but WSJ has just said most likely scenario is a major downgrade by Moodys, Mult-notch, possibly to near junk.

So we have bailout, then massive downgrade which will undo downgrade. And now a general election as government crumbles with Sinn Fein booming in the polls suddenly.

Rumour had it that without bailout announcement, cash would've stopped coming through banks within hours.

Sitting here feeling very sad, very depressed. Very miserable. I have seen a a society in freefall and finding it mentally very difficult :-(

How do you think that the people would have taken a different solution? Instead of kicking the can down the road with this bailout, would they have accepted a default?

That would have meant the cashpoints closing, banks being shutdown etc. It would have been nasty. But once done, you can rebuild from there. Instead Ireland is going to have the weight of the debt around it's neck like an albatross.

I cant help but think that the pain of a default was really the only way to go. Renege on the promise to bail the banks, close them down. Use the cash that Ireland has to survive for a few months, cut state expenditure. Given that Ireland has a trade surplus, things would have got better with time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is that really the case or is it via the goggles of HPC?

I know lots of people who live and work in Ireland and they seem to be getting on with it. Still in stable jobs, road are busy, restaurants and bars still seem to be doing a good trade.

There doesn't even seem to have been much in the way of protest.

Were you there over the weekend? The people over there I spoke to this weekend were very annoyed and angry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I go there once a month on business and I saw a change in the last week or so. It was soul destroying place to be. Perhaps I saw it a bit worse because I work behind the scenes with businesspeople. But I don't think so - the mood on the streets has suddenly changed - largely placid a month ago. Now it's sheer rage. I think the Irish cabinet have got it spot on.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ireland/8150761/Ireland-bail-out-government-prepares-for-backlash.html

I actually think anything could happen now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

" :ph34r: Moody's: Ireland Multi-Notch Downgrade Now Most Likely Outcome".

So, lets get this clear.

European bailout using taxpayers money. Country gets downgraded so interest rate goes up. Money for bailout shoots straight off to the banksters!!:blink:

Will this ever end?

Capitalism is clearly fatally wounded.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

fatherjack.jpeg

You know, looking at the BBC and Sky news programmes coming from Eire today life looks pretty much normal. I have not seen much sign of anger in the vox pops - ok, that would change if the ATMs stopped working but they did not.

Personally, I think Eire will be in a better position than the UK in 5 years time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Were you there over the weekend? The people over there I spoke to this weekend were very annoyed and angry.

A few days including the weekend. The Mood suddenly snapped. Unbelievable. It was like tension had been building up and suddenly enough was enough.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How do you think that the people would have taken a different solution? Instead of kicking the can down the road with this bailout, would they have accepted a default?

That would have meant the cashpoints closing, banks being shutdown etc. It would have been nasty. But once done, you can rebuild from there. Instead Ireland is going to have the weight of the debt around it's neck like an albatross.

I cant help but think that the pain of a default was really the only way to go. Renege on the promise to bail the banks, close them down. Use the cash that Ireland has to survive for a few months, cut state expenditure. Given that Ireland has a trade surplus, things would have got better with time.

From what I can gather, there are some pretty bright people in Ireland who could come up with better solutions. I just don't think TPTB will let them have a look in.

The option of default is still on the table. It will just be a bigger one now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

fatherjack.jpeg

You know, looking at the BBC and Sky news programmes coming from Eire today life looks pretty much normal. I have not seen much sign of anger in the vox pops - ok, that would change if the ATMs stopped working but they did not.

Personally, I think Eire will be in a better position than the UK in 5 years time.

Yeah, they would say that wouldn't they - it's far from normal. It's completely on the edge. I met a well known Brit journo in Dublin and berated him after seeing him doing interviews on about the wealthiest road in the city. I even noticed him interviewing a politically linked guy as a member of the general public. Jeeeeeez.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From what I can gather, there are some pretty bright people in Ireland who could come up with better solutions. I just don't think TPTB will let them have a look in.

The option of default is still on the table. It will just be a bigger one now.

I bloody well wish they'd pay more attention to David McWilliams!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, they would say that wouldn't they - it's far from normal. It's completely on the edge. I met a well known Brit journo in Dublin and berated him after seeing him doing interviews on about the wealthiest road in the city. I even noticed him interviewing a politically linked guy as a member of the general public. Jeeeeeez.

If you have an hour listen to the Stephen Nolan show on Fivelive last night - lots of angry Irish economic types on there giving full vent to what is going on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was in Dubin last weekend, prices of food and drink were very high. Temple Bar is just a mugging area for tourists, 10 euro for a dollap of mash with braised steak and a carrott. The Guinness was nice though ;)

That's where the Beeb were doing interviews too - so I saw one journo doing interviews in Dublin 4 and another in Temple Bar. You give up!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you have an hour listen to the Stephen Nolan show on Fivelive last night - lots of angry Irish economic types on there giving full vent to what is going on.

RTE cut off Cowen news conference last night after Vincent Browne asked some very awkward question - guy at hotel bar threw a glass at the TV and the barman started screaming expletives - not at the guy who'd nearly smashed the TV but AT the TV. It was incredible and shocking at the same time.

Edited by gruffydd

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I bloody well wish they'd pay more attention to David McWilliams!

Shame there's not an Anti-IMF organization that represents the interests of the sovereign debtors, helping countries to default or restructure debts rather than becoming enslaved by it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is as close to complete social breakdown I've ever seen - was in Ballina, then Derry, then Wexford, then Dublin.

The RAGE was palpable. People literally shouting at you in anger about everything. Complete nightmare.

You may not know this yet but WSJ has just said most likely scenario is a major downgrade by Moodys, Mult-notch, possibly to near junk.

So we have bailout, then massive downgrade which will undo downgrade. And now a general election as government crumbles with Sinn Fein booming in the polls suddenly.

Rumour had it that without bailout announcement, cash would've stopped coming through banks within hours.

Sitting here feeling very sad, very depressed. Very miserable. I have seen a a society in freefall and finding it mentally very difficult :-(

I'm not sure what's more shocking - a drunk Irishman shouting at people in the street or an HPCer assuming that this is a portent of the End of Western Civilisation. :rolleyes:

To be fair I read HPC because I think there is real chance things do melt down. But I do think even today it must remain far more likely than not that they wont. Sometimes HPC feels like a kind of post-enlightenment millenialism. Someon should get Gillian Tett to do one of her anthropological pieces on you (well, lets face it, us) lot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How do you think that the people would have taken a different solution? Instead of kicking the can down the road with this bailout, would they have accepted a default?

That would have meant the cashpoints closing, banks being shutdown etc. It would have been nasty. But once done, you can rebuild from there. Instead Ireland is going to have the weight of the debt around it's neck like an albatross.

I cant help but think that the pain of a default was really the only way to go. Renege on the promise to bail the banks, close them down. Use the cash that Ireland has to survive for a few months, cut state expenditure. Given that Ireland has a trade surplus, things would have got better with time.

Agree

But what they could have also done is implement a plan to keep money flowing to customers of collapsed banks by printing it. If you are a consumer or small business with cash, you don't lose it. And the cashpoints continue working. If you are a big bank creditor, you get a severe haircut commensurate with the risk you took when buying Irish debt, in exchange for ownership of the bank. A complete collapse of the global banking system with printed money to make good retail deposits would be better than maintaining this corrupt fiction of solvency

The US Depression of 1921-22 had no bailouts, GDP drop of 25% and price deflation of 18%. They were back to full employment by 1923

The FT were alluding to implementing a plan to keep cash flowing. We will see bank runs affecting many euro economies in the next few years

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How do you think that the people would have taken a different solution? Instead of kicking the can down the road with this bailout, would they have accepted a default?

That would have meant the cashpoints closing, banks being shutdown etc. It would have been nasty. But once done, you can rebuild from there. Instead Ireland is going to have the weight of the debt around it's neck like an albatross.

I cant help but think that the pain of a default was really the only way to go. Renege on the promise to bail the banks, close them down. Use the cash that Ireland has to survive for a few months, cut state expenditure. Given that Ireland has a trade surplus, things would have got better with time.

There was a lot of talk about 1916 and sovereignty issues. They're being told the pain will last for a decade. People can't face that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A few days including the weekend. The Mood suddenly snapped. Unbelievable. It was like tension had been building up and suddenly enough was enough.

Gruffydd, my comment wasn't aimed at you but at the person I quoted. I know what the feeling is like from a few phone calls to mates over the weekend. I know I'm biased as wearing my economist hat I would favour a default but everyone I spoke to seems to think

1) the politicians have been forced into this.

2) they are idiots for doing so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.