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The Crack Up Boom

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Is the deflation phase in UK house prices now over and are we in a crack-up boom?

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. --Ludwig von Mises"

My opinion is that there has been no abandonment of further credit expansion as net lending is still positive (amazing really, considering the end of SLS/CGS). The most likely scenario is no longer a fall in nominal house prices but that all drops will be in real terms as inflation takes over.

VMR.

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Jaguar +5% 2010, RPI + 0.5 2011

FTSE bosses +55% so expect more pay revolts.

yes, expecting revolts....but not today.

and with no wealth advance, printing is the only way to allow this...THEN we start the crack up boom.

we have another round in the ring yet..IMPO.

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I think you should say you have recently bought and perhaps change your status to bull?

I am buying now (just mentioned on another post - not trying to hide it) so I guess I have become a normal-neither but still a real-terms-bear. I don't expect real-terms prices to reach 2007 highs again in my lifetime.

I am buying since a crack-up boom is looking like the most likely scenario. Buying a big plot, small house with a mortgage that I could pay off in a year if necessary looks like the optimum way to cover myself against my £ savings becoming devalued further.

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I am buying now (just mentioned on another post - not trying to hide it) so I guess I have become a normal-neither but still a real-terms-bear. I don't expect real-terms prices to reach 2007 highs again in my lifetime.

I am buying since a crack-up boom is looking like the most likely scenario. Buying a big plot, small house with a mortgage that I could pay off in a year if necessary looks like the optimum way to cover myself against my £ savings becoming devalued further.

in a crack up boom. unless you have a fixed rate mortgage, you will lose your house....governments will take everything not nailed down...specially if you have debt that they can see being a lever on you.

In the US, they confiscated gold.....its worse this time, confiscating freeholds "to protect you" looks a possibility to me.

Having a safe, self reliant population has not been the aim of government for many years in this country....why would that change?

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yes, expecting revolts....but not today.

and with no wealth advance, printing is the only way to allow this...THEN we start the crack up boom.

we have another round in the ring yet..IMPO.

The Bank of Theft from Savers in England are already saying CPI will be 3.5% in 2011 and they are 96% wrong.

Firms negotiating pay deals at RPI + x% doesn't look good to me.

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The Bank of Theft from Savers in England are already saying CPI will be 3.5% in 2011 and they are 96% wrong.

Firms negotiating pay deals at RPI + x% doesn't look good to me.

most people dont work for large firms...they work for small firms, and the pressure is on them with 0 rises....

big firms are already getting the pressure on margins as costs go up...wages up will mean layoffs and efficiency savings.

whatever happens, its gonna hurt...

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I am buying now (just mentioned on another post - not trying to hide it) so I guess I have become a normal-neither but still a real-terms-bear. I don't expect real-terms prices to reach 2007 highs again in my lifetime.

I am buying since a crack-up boom is looking like the most likely scenario. Buying a big plot, small house with a mortgage that I could pay off in a year if necessary looks like the optimum way to cover myself against my £ savings becoming devalued further.

I never said you were tryying to hide it, if you hadn't been open about it I wouldn't have known.

It's just that Bear, bought, thread about no nominal falls doesn't seem quite right and we wouldn't want anyone to get confused would we?

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in a crack up boom. unless you have a fixed rate mortgage, you will lose your house

In my case, I have a 2.19% tracker but enough savings in NS&I and money owed to me to clear the mortgage in about a year if necessary.

In other case, many will get SMI to pay their mortgage at the new rates (if that scheme continues). I know two bankrupts that have a better standard of living than me and I have a top 10% income.

Even in a crack-up boom, they can keep base rates low, they are already 4% below RPI.

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In my case, I have a 2.19% tracker but enough savings in NS&I and money owed to me to clear the mortgage in about a year if necessary.

In other case, many will get SMI to pay their mortgage at the new rates (if that scheme continues). I know two bankrupts that have a better standard of living than me and I have a top 10% income.

Even in a crack-up boom, they can keep base rates low, they are already 4% below RPI.

In Gone with the WInd, where hyperinflation was mentioned and part of the sub plot, the money people could get wouldnt buy anything.

taxes were raised on property owners with the property forfeit when they couldnt pay.

just a thought.

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In Gone with the WInd, where hyperinflation was mentioned and part of the sub plot, the money people could get wouldnt buy anything.

taxes were raised on property owners with the property forfeit when they couldnt pay.

just a thought.

Thanks, that cheered me up no end.

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wages.

That's the thing to watch.

The Irish minimum wages to be dropped by €1 an hour as a condition of the bailout.

Will people stand it? Portugal on general strike Wednesday.

The UK is too busy with the upcoming wedding to be bothered with it all.

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Thanks, that cheered me up no end.

thing is, nobody knows what is going to happen. we all have to do what we can, and power to you for doing what you think is right.

I hope you are.

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in a crack up boom. unless you have a fixed rate mortgage, you will lose your house....governments will take everything not nailed down...specially if you have debt that they can see being a lever on you.

In the US, they confiscated gold.....its worse this time, confiscating freeholds "to protect you" looks a possibility to me.

Having a safe, self reliant population has not been the aim of government for many years in this country....why would that change?

Yes Bloo, but what would happen exactly? How can they confiscate freeholds? Not suggesting it is not possible BTW ..... just want to understand how it would (might) be effected.

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I am buying now (just mentioned on another post - not trying to hide it) so I guess I have become a normal-neither but still a real-terms-bear. I don't expect real-terms prices to reach 2007 highs again in my lifetime.

I am buying since a crack-up boom is looking like the most likely scenario. Buying a big plot, small house with a mortgage that I could pay off in a year if necessary looks like the optimum way to cover myself against my £ savings becoming devalued further.

The ghost of DaddyBear hangs over this thread...

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The UK is too busy with the upcoming wedding to be bothered with it all.

plus" xfactor"," I'm a non celebrity get me out of here" , "strictly..", subo's latest album, pudsey, footie and a billion other organised distractions for the masses in case they should think for a few seconds

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Has there ever been a so called 'catastrophe in currency' as Von Mises states? If this has ever been, it seems it has only happened where sovereign debts are largely denominated in another currency, no? Therefore, for a country like the US, is a catastrophe even possible?

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Yes Bloo, but what would happen exactly? How can they confiscate freeholds? Not suggesting it is not possible BTW ..... just want to understand how it would (might) be effected.

many ways.

I believe after the US civil war, they did it by introducing severe property taxes, and took the freehold if you couldnt pay...which many couldnt.

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The ghost of DaddyBear hangs over this thread...

And:

CGNAO

Pluto

Injin

and annoyingly.... Sibley.

Once the writing was on the wall re. inflation it was either Gold or a House.

Every effort of the government has been directed to the protection of asset holders rather than monetary "savers".

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And:

CGNAO

Pluto

Injin

and annoyingly.... Sibley.

Once the writing was on the wall re. inflation it was either Gold or a House.

Every effort of the government has been directed to the protection of asset holders rather than monetary "savers".

Sibley got a lot of things right , which seemed to anger the people who had sold up and were waiting for the crash like a starving vulture stalking its prey.

Edited by headrow

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many ways.

I believe after the US civil war, they did it by introducing severe property taxes, and took the freehold if you couldnt pay...which many couldnt.

Hi Bloo: There was a lot of funny stuff that happened after Lincoln was assassinated. Bankers revenge type of stuff.

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Getting carried away again methinks... The fact that every thread ends with some kind of post apocalyptic Mad Max scenario is exactly why we have a reputation on this forum for being a bunch of tin-foil hat wearing militant nut jobs.

I just think things are just going to play out over the next few decades without anyone really noticing... until some kind of new equilibrium is reached. Much like when your nan tells you she bought her 4 bed house in London for 3 shillings and tuppence which was a lot of money at the time.

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We are in a crack up boom. Growth is marginally positive. Tax receipts have stabilized at a much lower level. The crack up boom is relative to where we would have been had the economy been allowed to adjust quickly rather than slowly. It doesn't exist in relative terms.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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