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interestrateripoff

How Long Before Spain Needs A Bailout Now?

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Great news for our banker balance sheets free money is about to be dished out to them via a bailout now Ireland has been exposed.

Now how long before Spain becomes the next target?

Or though it could be Portugal and then there's Italy.

Plus there's still the UK and maybe the US as well.

So who will be the next lucky winner of the Euro's bailout lottery fund? Obviously not the US.

Edited by interestrateripoff

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Great news for our banker balance sheets free money is about to be dished out to them via a bailout now Ireland has been exposed.

Now how long before Spain becomes the next target?

Or though it could be Portugal and then there's Italy.

Plus there's still the UK and maybe the US as well.

So who will be the next lucky winner of the Euro's bailout lottery fund? Obviously not the US.

I have been wondering about that too.

My view is that Portugal is next because it is an easy target. Once it too has been driven into the arms of "Mama Euro", the real battle will begin which is the fate of Spain : It is too large to save and too large to fail.

The end result for Spain will determine the ultimate fate of the Euro. Everything else so far has been the opening bouts. The main event starts before Easter.

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The UK is next as it has not had its HPC yet. Spain, I agree, has a spanner which it may choose to throw into the works, but I think UK next (and by no means last...)

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Now that you mention it the rumour mill seems to be suggesting Portugal is next in line. Probably a little ways after Ireland is settled.

Since Greece and Ireland together look to cost what 300 billion eurors, and Portugal shoud be good for another 100 billion I would imagine. And since Spain is twice as large as those 3 nations combined, the Spanish bailout would hve to be 800 billion euros.

I think the ECB can handle that sum, but it would have to print the money I would think. Or some sort of guaruntee on the losses and print as the losses came in. I don't think the Euro nations would want to lend so much money to Spain in that guaruntee system they set up in the wake of the Greek crisis.

Good point Pedro, Greece or Ireland coud need more help in between. Like Greece seems to be sliding down again.

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Now that you mention it the rumour mill seems to be suggesting Portugal is next in line. Probably a little ways after Ireland is settled.

Since Greece and Ireland together look to cost what 300 billion eurors, and Portugal shoud be good for another 100 billion I would imagine. And since Spain is twice as large as those 3 nations combined, the Spanish bailout would hve to be 800 billion euros.

I think the ECB can handle that sum, but it would have to print the money I would think. Or some sort of guaruntee on the losses and print as the losses came in. I don't think the Euro nations would want to lend so much money to Spain in that guaruntee system they set up in the wake of the Greek crisis.

Good point Pedro, Greece or Ireland coud need more help in between. Like Greece seems to be sliding down again.

:lol::lol:

Feck me....those numbers

This is going to end with the total frigging annihilation of our economies

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Another country full to the brim with fecking idiots. Dirty scum who all wanted to cash in on the HPI bubble are now going to get flushed down the fecking toilet, lol.

Good. What filth we have all over the western world. Banks, politicians and the scum public all need shot IMO. Useless bastards the lot of them.

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Spain, I'd say July. Portugal will come much more quickly. Italy won't be there - by the time that Spain fails

Great news for our banker balance sheets free money is about to be dished out to them via a bailout now Ireland has been exposed.

Now how long before Spain becomes the next target?

Or though it could be Portugal and then there's Italy.

Plus there's still the UK and maybe the US as well.

So who will be the next lucky winner of the Euro's bailout lottery fund? Obviously not the US.

Edited by fallingbuzzard

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This is going to end with the total frigging annihilation of our economies

Good. The UK economy is slowly turning almost everybody born after 1975 into a slave of the bankers and landlords. That economy deserves to be annihilated.

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You obviously dont appreciate what destruction of the economy will mean. Think its all gonna be free houses and milk and honey? Wrong, try marshall law and state dictatorship for size.

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This is going to end with the total frigging annihilation of our economies

That's why I am using my STR fund to buy back in, a similar but cheaper house than I sold in 2003.

I came to the conclusion that an orderly house price crash is now impossible. The numbers are so large, the system just breaks. Next step is endless money printing.

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That's why I am using my STR fund to buy back in, a similar but cheaper house than I sold in 2003.

I came to the conclusion that an orderly house price crash is now impossible. The numbers are so large, the system just breaks. Next step is endless money printing.

So far the money printing in the west has been quite conservative, even undersized. Judging by inflation running well below the target in the USA and the EU.

But at some point like if many hundreds of billions were needed immediately the EU would have no choice but to print the money, no matter what the inflationary impact. There is no way they will let depositors lose money.

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Now that you mention it the rumour mill seems to be suggesting Portugal is next in line. Probably a little ways after Ireland is settled.

Since Greece and Ireland together look to cost what 300 billion eurors, and Portugal shoud be good for another 100 billion I would imagine. And since Spain is twice as large as those 3 nations combined, the Spanish bailout would hve to be 800 billion euros.

I think the ECB can handle that sum, but it would have to print the money I would think. Or some sort of guaruntee on the losses and print as the losses came in. I don't think the Euro nations would want to lend so much money to Spain in that guaruntee system they set up in the wake of the Greek crisis.

Good point Pedro, Greece or Ireland coud need more help in between. Like Greece seems to be sliding down again.

the sums cant be handled.

there is NO WEALTH to cover it.

the hole is about to get bigger...and the drain a little faster...

we'd better get selling more widgets PDQ.

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There's got to be a limit to the number of repro's that the spanish banks are prepared to hold.

I'd give Spain about 6 - 12 months.

There's no way out of this mess - the markets will win in the end.

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There's got to be a limit to the number of repro's that the spanish banks are prepared to hold.

I'd give Spain about 6 - 12 months.

There's no way out of this mess - the markets will win in the end.

there is a way...let the BUST complete....it will one way or another...either with real growth and wasters replaced, or with total collapse ZImbabwe style.

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the sums cant be handled.

there is NO WEALTH to cover it.

the hole is about to get bigger...and the drain a little faster...

we'd better get selling more widgets PDQ.

If the real wealth cannot cover the liabilities than the only two options are partial default or enough inflation to make the nominal debts payable by the real wealth.

So far I think the sums are payable, but politically they are causing problems. For example if the bailouts cost £1 trillion pounds, and Britain had to shoulder 10% of the costs, it would add our national debt would grow by 10%. It seems why would we want to do that.

The other option which can potentially lead to inflation is for the EU to print enough money to cover it. But from my reading it seems Germany does not want to give that power to the ECB. Even if it does not lead to inflation, it would be a huge step towards the EU acting as a nation, a huge transfer of sovereignty. The other European countries seem in favour of the ECB gaining that power, because they would benefit.

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Spain, I'd say July. Portugal will come much more quickly. Italy won't be there - by the time that Spain fails

Yeah I'd agree, Spain in around July.

And the UK?

2011 will be one hell of a year, let's not get caught like rabbits in the headlights!

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If the real wealth cannot cover the liabilities than the only two options are partial default or enough inflation to make the nominal debts payable by the real wealth.

snip

Again, you are thinking only one step at a time...just like the Politicians.

Lets look at the inflation option you persist in proposing.

Yes, it lowers the debts real value...bad for pensions and savings, deposits on houses etc etc.

But it cures nothing...because, next time the government or anyone else, buys anything, labour, a ship, benefits, the amount they have to borrow is INCREASED by INFLATION + INEFFICIENCY.

so they now have MORE debt, and everyone can buy even less...UNLESS, there is more wealth created...in which case, you could pay it all off, have more liquidity, and NO INFLATION.

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Again, you are thinking only one step at a time...just like the Politicians.

Lets look at the inflation option you persist in proposing.

Yes, it lowers the debts real value...bad for pensions and savings, deposits on houses etc etc.

But it cures nothing...because, next time the government or anyone else, buys anything, labour, a ship, benefits, the amount they have to borrow is INCREASED by INFLATION + INEFFICIENCY.

so they now have MORE debt, and everyone can buy even less...UNLESS, there is more wealth created...in which case, you could pay it all off, have more liquidity, and NO INFLATION.

I'm sure you can do better than ad hominen to refute the inflation thesis.

The deficits would remain the same, obviously. But the trillions of pounds of debt accumulated to date will be eroded away. That is a net benefit to debtors (TPTB) at the expense of savers.

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I'm sure you can do better than ad hominen to refute the inflation thesis.

The deficits would remain the same, obviously. But the trillions of pounds of debt accumulated to date will be eroded away. That is a net benefit to debtors (TPTB) at the expense of savers.

ad hominen?

me and AA3 go back a long way. Im not sure a criticism of the thought process is ad hominum....If Id said, AA3, you are a total ****er, or an idiot, then yes, but, I Apologise in advance to AA3 if he or anyone thinks this was a personal attack on AA3.

It certainly wasnt the intention.

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When you go round Spain there is all these half finished construction projects and as we all know a lot of unsold dwellings, question is, is their situation any different to Ireland in that the surplus stock may have a real value of just about zero, AND how much of that land and construction and property is funded by British Bank loans.

In mitigation I think Spain has always looked like an unfinished construction project, and asking prices on property certainly are not zero.

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Guess which way Spanish exports have gone this year under the "overvalued" Euro? And their deficit?

Wrong again. I think the Brits often underestimate the Spanish. They certainly currently have a lot of unsold properties. But expect to see a big investor in these when the prices drop a bit further (clue: go East).

Incidentally guess which country is Spain's biggest export market. Germany. If Germany's economy is improving (which it has been) then it's good news for Spain.

I'm still amazed though at how stable the Euro's remained. If the markets really thought Spain was in the same position as Ireland or Greece, surely it would be plummeting already?

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When you go round Spain there is all these half finished construction projects and as we all know a lot of unsold dwellings, question is, is their situation any different to Ireland in that the surplus stock may have a real value of just about zero, AND how much of that land and construction and property is funded by British Bank loans.

In mitigation I think Spain has always looked like an unfinished construction project, and asking prices on property certainly are not zero.

You can pick a liveable property up for less than 30k euros running costs are next to nothing and live off the land with your animals, sure you will need a few euros behind you and it is not everyone's cup of tea...there are many options out there, all you need is a little push, some guts, courage, a positive frame of mind and not be afraid to get your hands dirty. ;)

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Guess which way Spanish exports have gone this year under the "overvalued" Euro? And their deficit?

Wrong again. I think the Brits often underestimate the Spanish. They certainly currently have a lot of unsold properties. But expect to see a big investor in these when the prices drop a bit further (clue: go East).

Incidentally guess which country is Spain's biggest export market. Germany. If Germany's economy is improving (which it has been) then it's good news for Spain.

I'm still amazed though at how stable the Euro's remained. If the markets really thought Spain was in the same position as Ireland or Greece, surely it would be plummeting already?

It's a huge game.

I would suggest it's a huge house of cards if the Euro collapses the global financial system is over.

No one wants to pull the plug for the chaos it would cause.

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  • 149 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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