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Topher Bear

Its Definately A Buyers Market

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Some friends of ours have been tryiung to sell all year. They have had one offer fall through as the chain fell apart,

They have finally got antoher offer on their place for 8% under asking price. This is a take it or leave it offer as they have been told that the buyer has put the same offer on two other properties and will take up whichever one accepts! The house asking price is already 8% under what they paid for it. They are in a tricky situation and need to sell up, so as friends feel for their financial loss, but still they are talking about renting it out instead! However they have seemed to have accepted the offer as being "just how the market is."

In other local news, my monitoring of the market in our area has show that in the last two months there has been a dramatic fall in the number of 4 bed properties on the market...in my charts they have practically fallen off the edge of a cliff. Not so for 3 beds...mostly flat, a bit up and down. It was the four beds which rose in number since the beginning of the year....not sure what it means. But prices have held up pretty well here in the south west (very edge of) overall. Other ways of looking at the market (ie just up to our fixed price band) it looks like prices are falling slowly, but oh so slowly...not at a rate which ratifies renting (in my calculation we need 0.5% falls a month for to be worthwhile renting!)

Prices really need to start moving very very soon, as come early next year we will be properly looking to buy, I really can't hold out much longer. We should be in a position, with a steady permanent job and some deposit savings. If prices can be seen to be in free fall (or at least falling rapidly) by then, we will hold off for a bit longer...maybe wait till autum.

I'm thinking of wirting to PM to point out my situation and why I am not spending money to get the economy moving again even though I am one of the few people in the country who has money to spend. Point out how this year we would have bought a new enternainment system (TV, Blue Ray HDD recorder etc), a new Sofa, a new computer and a new car (and I mean brand new not second hand), but cannot justify the expense due to saving for a deposit for an overinflated house price!

Pointing out that while house prices remain high, the economy cannot move on!

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I'm thinking of wirting to PM to point out my situation and why I am not spending money to get the economy moving again even though I am one of the few people in the country who has money to spend. Point out how this year we would have bought a new enternainment system (TV, Blue Ray HDD recorder etc), a new Sofa, a new computer and a new car (and I mean brand new not second hand), but cannot justify the expense due to saving for a deposit for an overinflated house price!

Pointing out that while house prices remain high, the economy cannot move on!

Maybe I should write to someone in power and tell them that I send almost all my savings abroad and will be joining it shortly as in another country I built my own house on cheap land (as it is in most of the UK) without the threat of the state bulldozing it over.

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Prices really need to start moving very very soon, as come early next year we will be properly looking to buy, I really can't hold out much longer. We should be in a position, with a steady permanent job and some deposit savings. If prices can be seen to be in free fall (or at least falling rapidly) by then, we will hold off for a bit longer...maybe wait till autum.

Don't get why you can't hold out that's exactly what I'm doing. And will continue to do so till the house of cards collapses, as surely it must.

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they are in a tricky situation and need to sell up,

until we see more 'tricky situations' - around my way, at least, it's going to be a long grind downwards.

Buyers are queuing for decent properties and what's frustrating is that they seem to be paying close to 2007 prices (again I can only speak for my area of N London).

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I'm thinking of wirting to PM to point out my situation and why I am not spending money to get the economy moving again even though I am one of the few people in the country who has money to spend. Point out how this year we would have bought a new enternainment system (TV, Blue Ray HDD recorder etc), a new Sofa, a new computer and a new car (and I mean brand new not second hand), but cannot justify the expense due to saving for a deposit for an overinflated house price!

You cannot possibly get the UK economy moving again even if you purchased all of the above because nowadays these things are manufactured abroad apart from the sofa and maybe the car. And I am not 100% sure about sofa either.

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I spoke to an EA of over 40 years in the game yeserday.

He told me that it is a buyers' market now and that things will not pick up for:

1. 2 to 3 months when the Spring sellers will return and will probably want higher asking prices.

2. 5 - 6 years. Said if you were buying now that you would not be looking to move for that time as you would not be seeing capital growth.

He said that there were some cash buyers still out there but that banks were not lending. Despite that people were refusing to drop their price as mot had been saved by the low IRs.

His advice, and this was not some wide-boy but an experienced EA, was to put in low offers now on several properties and take the one which accepts.

Until IRs rise sharply we will not see a housing crash.

I am seeing no sign of job cuts in my part of the World so I am ruling out job losses causing a HPC now. I think only higher IRs will bring it about and that will mean a global financial shock. Will Eire provide it - I doubt it?

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until we see more 'tricky situations' - around my way, at least, it's going to be a long grind downwards.

Buyers are queuing for decent properties and what's frustrating is that they seem to be paying close to 2007 prices (again I can only speak for my area of N London).

In my street the ceiling for a 3 bed terrace (n london) was approx £430k in Nov 2007. That was matched this week! BTW the house recently sold had a slightly higher a spec but very comparable in every aspect.

Edited by chicker

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I am not spending money to get the economy moving again even though I am one of the few people in the country who has money to spend.

Pointing out that while house prices remain high, the economy cannot move on!

For all the talk, I still meet plenty of people with money to spend, most still are (maybe because i live in the South East?).

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I'm thinking of wirting to PM to point out my situation and why I am not spending money to get the economy moving again even though I am one of the few people in the country who has money to spend. Point out how this year we would have bought a new enternainment system (TV, Blue Ray HDD recorder etc), a new Sofa, a new computer and a new car (and I mean brand new not second hand), but cannot justify the expense due to saving for a deposit for an overinflated house price!

Pointing out that while house prices remain high, the economy cannot move on!

Precisely.....I have moved recently and because of the high costs and stamp duty taxes I will not be buying new furniture or updating the kitchen etc....things will have to be bought second hand or given...if homes and taxes were less I am sure more people would spend more so keep the economy healthy....no the greed of some have forced people to protect and conserve, this will have an adverse effect on everyone. ;)

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.....

Until IRs rise sharply we will not see a housing crash.

I am seeing no sign of job cuts in my part of the World so I am ruling out job losses causing a HPC now. I think only higher IRs will bring it about and that will mean a global financial shock. Will Eire provide it - I doubt it?

It wasn't IR or jobs that started the mini crash of 2008. It was the bank insolvencies and the fear of financial Armageddon. That fear went away as the global bailout went so smoothly and was quite remarkable in that all the world's governments agreed about it. Brown did save the world, if you think the world is the banks. Now the horrendous price we paid for that solution is clear and the unity of nations is beginning to disappear. The ECB are selling bonds to the Chinese to bail out Eire. Soon the Chinese will own the EU as well as the US.

The only debate as far as I can see is whether a shitty box of bricks in a crumbling second rate dump like the UK will be a good store of value for us ordinary folk that cannot access the wealth preservation facilities the rich enjoy. Me? I doubt it. Houses will return to three times income again, so paying 6 times income for one is a dumb move if you care about the capital.

I still think houses will halve from where they are now, but I still cannot make my mind up whether it will be a slow process or a cliff-fall.

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It wasn't IR or jobs that started the mini crash of 2008. It was the bank insolvencies and the fear of financial Armageddon. That fear went away as the global bailout went so smoothly and was quite remarkable in that all the world's governments agreed about it. Brown did save the world, if you think the world is the banks. Now the horrendous price we paid for that solution is clear and the unity of nations is beginning to disappear. The ECB are selling bonds to the Chinese to bail out Eire. Soon the Chinese will own the EU as well as the US.

The only debate as far as I can see is whether a shitty box of bricks in a crumbling second rate dump like the UK will be a good store of value for us ordinary folk that cannot access the wealth preservation facilities the rich enjoy. Me? I doubt it. Houses will return to three times income again, so paying 6 times income for one is a dumb move if you care about the capital.

I still think houses will halve from where they are now, but I still cannot make my mind up whether it will be a slow process or a cliff-fall.

Probably the cliff fall. Very few imagined the total catastrophe that is Ireland but there it is and it's not as if the media are giving it the coverage owed considering the nightmare it is for the people of Ireland. They're giving it just the bare minimum coverage possible.

No doubt in a few days time the Express will be headlining house prices rise in Ireland it is so such a joke rag.

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Probably the cliff fall. Very few imagined the total catastrophe that is Ireland but there it is and it's not as if the media are giving it the coverage owed considering the nightmare it is for the people of Ireland. They're giving it just the bare minimum coverage possible.

No doubt in a few days time the Express will be headlining house prices rise in Ireland it is so such a joke rag.

Lots of HPCers imagined the downfall of Ireland years and years ago! It was obvious and totally predictable, not a 'black swan' event at all.

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Probably the cliff fall. Very few imagined the total catastrophe that is Ireland but there it is and it's not as if the media are giving it the coverage owed considering the nightmare it is for the people of Ireland. They're giving it just the bare minimum coverage possible.

No doubt in a few days time the Express will be headlining house prices rise in Ireland it is so such a joke rag.

??? What media are you talking about? The papers I read have been full of it, and there's been masses on the radio/TV I listen to/watch, too.

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Very True, This is because most of our real economy has been taken to China and elsewhere.

I quess you meant our once great industrial base, I cannot see things getting better in the near future on that one.

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??? What media are you talking about? The papers I read have been full of it, and there's been masses on the radio/TV I listen to/watch, too.

I was going to say the same thing, I don't listen to the radio much but had it on all day Sunday while I was working every hour on the hour the lead story was Ireland.

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I'm always amused by the idea of 'an insulting offer'. An insult would be a rationalisation of why the offer was the price it was, which is none of the vendor's business, not the offer itself which is the buyer's best guess at a current value.

Houses are very personal things. When we sold our last place we had viewers walking in and saying 'we won't waste your time any further' and leaving to others saying 'wow, this is fantastic'. An offer is a reflection of how much the buyer wants the place, balanced with national and local financial conditions. Insults have nothing to do with it.

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  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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