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In reverse, the cremation will come first in the EU`s case. ;)

The time will come soon when the better off EU countries will start to twitch,get worried that all the financially inept debt ridden basket case coutries will drag them down, and think sod this, we're better off on our own!! With the current levels of debt facing all EU nations today, I don't think it will be long before they start to think the massive EU membership fees are a total rip off and you get bug-ger all in return!!

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The time will come soon when the better off EU countries will start to twitch,get worried that all the financially inept debt ridden basket case coutries will drag them down, and think sod this, we're better off on our own!! With the current levels of debt facing all EU nations today, I don't think it will be long before they start to think the massive EU membership fees are a total rip off and you get bug-ger all in return!!

Cameron will fall in line eventually and pay the huge increase they want, their power has the strength of a witch doctor who casts fear among the weak. At the end of the day Cameron has an inherent weakness he has not yet discovered. ;)

In the next 5 years we will hand over £82 billion pounds, literally 50% of our deficit. :rolleyes:

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82 billion is not half our deficit.... 975billion is our deficit, 160 odd billion is our structural deficit... the amount we are going further into debt each year... i thought i would make that clarification first.

Secondly, the EU won't fail unless a country like Italy or Spain default which is still unlikely. The EU has so much political will behind it from France and Germany that with those two power houses holding it together it will have every chance of survival. I think its stronger than most think....

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how can so many on a site like this still not know the difference between our deficit and our debt?

Sorry in my haste I forgot to add a word or two but hoped the subject of my post would be understood. :rolleyes:

Charlie you will write out a hundred times I must be more explicit in my posts.

structural structural structural structural x 100. :D

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Sorry in my haste I forgot to add a word or two but hoped the subject of my post would be understood. :rolleyes:

Charlie you will write out a hundred times I must be more explicit in my posts. :D

I wasn't referring to you ;)

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Sure, when the Anglo-french Islamic Republic rises and launches a holy war into the infidel dhimmi wastelands of Poland down to Romania.

I give it 20, 25 years at most.

But at least the EU will be gone, i think it will be worth it. :lol:

Seems so obvious though, its almost like the EU-nuts wanted it to happen.

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Secondly, the EU won't fail unless a country like Italy or Spain default which is still unlikely. The EU has so much political will behind it from France and Germany that with those two power houses holding it together it will have every chance of survival. I think its stronger than most think....

There is much dissent growing day by day by the citizens in both Germany and France, they are realising that they are no more than a charity to the irresponsible. always remember all Empires in history have eventually fallen. ;)

I wasn't referring to you

My sincere apologies. :D

And to think Catherine Ashton will be responsible for the EU Defence Force, the ex treasurer of the CND, really you just can`t make it up. :lol:

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Sure, when the Anglo-french Islamic Republic rises and launches a holy war into the infidel dhimmi wastelands of Poland down to Romania.

I give it 20, 25 years at most.

But at least the EU will be gone, i think it will be worth it. :lol:

Seems so obvious though, its almost like the EU-nuts wanted it to happen.

Diversionary tactics?

How much money could you screw out of your neighbour?

How much money could you screw out of your street?

How much money could you screw out of your country?

How much money could you screw out of a whole load of countries?

+ As above but replace with lust for power over people.

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Sorry in my haste I forgot to add a word or two but hoped the subject of my post would be understood. :rolleyes:

Charlie you will write out a hundred times I must be more explicit in my posts.

structural structural structural structural x 100. :D

You were right the first time!

UK deficit = £ 160 billion (i.e. amount needing to be borrowed over the current 12 month period - this is unusually high because of increased government spending and decreased tax take)

UK structural deficit = £90 billion (i.e. the amount of borrowing that would have been needed even if the economy was booming - this indicates how far the country is living beyond its means on a long-term basis).

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I thought the only ones who wanted the EU to fail were the Americans and the Chinese.

Why would any European want it to crumble? With the possible exception of Germany, is any nation in Europe really strong enough to go it alone?

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The EU is a political construct not an economic one. It was formed on the basis that countries which trade and become "ever closer" are disinclined to go to war.

The economic aspects are important, and indeed vital, but they aren't the only, or even the main, reason for the existence of the EU. It will survive a lot more than grumblings about costs and membership fees.

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I thought the only ones who wanted the EU to fail were the Americans and the Chinese.

Why would any European want it to crumble?

I'll skip the bit about the EU being undemocratic and unaccountable, ignoring referendum results, increasing their budgets while forcing nations to reduce theirs, etc, and concentrate on one issue that should make every European hate the EU:

They designed a monetary system that was flawed, purposely flawed, because they believed that when this euro crisis inevitably came it would force weaker nations to completely give up their sovereignty to the EU in return for being bailed out. Which is exactly what is happening to Greece, Ireland and Portugal. They engineered enormous suffering in weaker nations so they could expand their empire through extortion.

With the possible exception of Germany, is any nation in Europe really strong enough to go it alone?

It is perfectly possible for European nations to cooperate, do business and progress without some huge centralised government continually interfering with them.

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The EU is a political construct not an economic one. It was formed on the basis that countries which trade and become "ever closer" are disinclined to go to war.

The economic aspects are important, and indeed vital, but they aren't the only, or even the main, reason for the existence of the EU. It will survive a lot more than grumblings about costs and membership fees.

The founders of the EEC/EU , call it what you will... , knew their goal would take more than a generation to come to fruition. I think were now in the 3rd phase (first being the economic agreements, second being the monetary agreement). This pahse will see closer fiscal union. Already, the weaker Eurozone countries are being forced to implement fiscal policies that suit the larger members. ie. Germany and France.

France is embarking on fiscal changes in the next 3-4 years that will see it harmonise much of it's policy with Germany. Sarkozy said as much on tv this week.

I don't think the EU will disappear. More likely the core Euro countries will harmonise/converge even more and leave the others on the outside. I can see this happening in the next 20-30years.

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I thought the only ones who wanted the EU to fail were the Americans and the Chinese.

Why would any European want it to crumble? With the possible exception of Germany, is any nation in Europe really strong enough to go it alone?

Why do you need to be 'strong enough' to trade with other independent countries? Less political meddling would seem like a very good thing to me.

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The founders of the EEC/EU , call it what you will... , knew their goal would take more than a generation to come to fruition. I think were now in the 3rd phase (first being the economic agreements, second being the monetary agreement). This pahse will see closer fiscal union. Already, the weaker Eurozone countries are being forced to implement fiscal policies that suit the larger members. ie. Germany and France.

France is embarking on fiscal changes in the next 3-4 years that will see it harmonise much of it's policy with Germany. Sarkozy said as much on tv this week.

I don't think the EU will disappear. More likely the core Euro countries will harmonise/converge even more and leave the others on the outside. I can see this happening in the next 20-30years.

Correct. Already the Irish bail out is conditional on increasing their Corporation Tax. Tax harmonisation (VAT at least) is needed to get a "level plying field" for companies selling in a currency union. (The UK is a good example - one rate of VAT for all four member states). This is the reason there is such vast sums of money thrown at the propaganda machinery to persuade people the EU is a "A Bad Thing". The rich need small countries to offer massive tax advantages while at the same time big countries in which to sell their goods. For example Dell can base itself in Eire at 12.5% tax and sell throughout Europe cheaply and easily as a single market without any tariffs to reflect its lack of tax.

The EU is neither good nor bad - it is simply a logical extension of the way business works. The core idea of a united Europe working as a single entity to compete with the super powers of China and the US is a good one.

The break up of the EU would help the US return to its increasingly shaky position as the dominant force in the world. Make of that what you will.

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Correct. Already the Irish bail out is conditional on increasing their Corporation Tax. Tax harmonisation (VAT at least) is needed to get a "level plying field" for companies selling in a currency union. (The UK is a good example - one rate of VAT for all four member states). This is the reason there is such vast sums of money thrown at the propaganda machinery to persuade people the EU is a "A Bad Thing". The rich need small countries to offer massive tax advantages while at the same time big countries in which to sell their goods. For example Dell can base itself in Eire at 12.5% tax and sell throughout Europe cheaply and easily as a single market without any tariffs to reflect its lack of tax.

The EU is neither good nor bad - it is simply a logical extension of the way business works. The core idea of a united Europe working as a single entity to compete with the super powers of China and the US is a good one.

The break up of the EU would help the US return to its increasingly shaky position as the dominant force in the world. Make of that what you will.

As the politicians seem to be in the pockets of the corporations, I doubt having an ever bigger, more powerful political structure is going to help; it will just mean those with the right connections will dominate not just in one country, but across the whole EU.

I'd rather see a world with many small pockets of power than several (worse still, just one) big ones, tbh.

Edited by Traktion

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82 billion is not half our deficit.... 975billion is our deficit, 160 odd billion is our structural deficit... the amount we are going further into debt each year... i thought i would make that clarification first.

Secondly, the EU won't fail unless a country like Italy or Spain default which is still unlikely. The EU has so much political will behind it from France and Germany that with those two power houses holding it together it will have every chance of survival. I think its stronger than most think....

lol

Where do you start? 975b deficit? which year was that?

Current (last deficit) was circa 160b with, arguably, circa 80 billion being "structural"

A 975b deficit would see the UK collapse in double quick time (2mins?)

I have a feeling it will be the Iberian Peninsula that will be the breaking point for the EU

The EU will simply have too many plates to keep spinning at the same time

There maybe trouble ahead

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Correct. Already the Irish bail out is conditional on increasing their Corporation Tax. Tax harmonisation (VAT at least) is needed to get a "level plying field" for companies selling in a currency union. (The UK is a good example - one rate of VAT for all four member states). This is the reason there is such vast sums of money thrown at the propaganda machinery to persuade people the EU is a "A Bad Thing". The rich need small countries to offer massive tax advantages while at the same time big countries in which to sell their goods. For example Dell can base itself in Eire at 12.5% tax and sell throughout Europe cheaply and easily as a single market without any tariffs to reflect its lack of tax.

The EU is neither good nor bad - it is simply a logical extension of the way business works. The core idea of a united Europe working as a single entity to compete with the super powers of China and the US is a good one.

The break up of the EU would help the US return to its increasingly shaky position as the dominant force in the world. Make of that what you will.

Glad to see there's someone who has not had the usual media brainwashing, most of it boils down to "We've fought various European countries for thousands of years therefore they aren't trustworthy, America is our bestest friend and infallible in all financial matters" the reality, as you point out is somewhat different

Edited by madpenguin

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The break up of the EU would help the US return to its increasingly shaky position as the dominant force in the world. Make of that what you will.

Maybe the opposite.

I think you'll find America leans on and manipulates the EU rather extensively.

NATO headquarters is in Brussels, after all.

It was the US encouraged expansion of the EU that facilitated NATO's expansion eastwards. (In violation of a deal made with Gorbachev.)

There are several reasons why the EU could fall apart, but in fact that would probably me most resisted by NATO. Europe as a buffer state has long been enshrined in US thinking.

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The EU will fail shortly after April 2011.

As I understand it, April 2011 is when the rest of the EU countries have to open up their labour markets in the same way the British and Irish did.

We have no land borders with the rest of Europe and still we were flooded with cheap eastern european labour, putting people out of work and massively increasing the demand for hosues and state provided services. Ireland is about as far west as you can get without leaving the EU!

If you think we have a lot of Polish plumbers and fruit pickers, imagine what will happen in Germany when they have a 400 mile direct land border with Poland.

Millions of low-paid german workers will be made unemployable almost overnight as polish workers flood across the border. German state hospitals will be obliged to provide healthcare to all the polish workers flooding across.

Every german worker within 150 miles of the border will find themselves either unemployed or with their wages slashed as people living just over the border in Poland suddenly find themselves in commuting distance.

After what has happened in the UK and Ireland there is no way the Germans or French are going to allow it. The will have no choice but to pull out of the EU and collapse it.

Edited by RufflesTheGuineaPig

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Ruffles, if the scenario you describe above was on the cards, I bet the French/German axis would change the law overnight. ;)

In France's case, it may be different to the UK. France doesn't hand out houses / hotel accomodation to every Tom/Dick/Vladimir who arrives off a plane looking for work. And without an address, no job/social security etc.

Anyway, the French can hardly complain if a few Poles want to work in France. Have you been to Poland in the last 5 years? Big shopping malls with Carrefour/Castorama/Yves Rocher/Darty etc etc. All profits going back into the CAC40, no doubt. B)

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Germany has accepted many foreign wage serfs before and it has enough problems with its Turkish minority group; let the Catholic Polish wage serfs get crammed in amongst the underemployed Islamic Turks in Germany, then the fun starts. <_<

The EU would have to tighten immigration to certain countries to dampen potential civil disorder and violent work place tensions (that make that British worker's strike outside that French owned oil refinery operated by Italians and Brazilians look like a picnic).

The European Union is the logical result of European countries being so heavily interconnected with each other through highly developed transportation and communications infrastructure in the first place.

Edited by Big Orange

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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