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British Banks £140Bn Exposure To Ireland

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ireland/8141618/British-banks-have-140-billion-exposure-to-Irelands-economic-crisis.html

"....RBS, the largely-nationalised bank, is thought to have the biggest exposure with more than £50 billion of outstanding loans"

What chance contagion to UK banks ? FSCS could not cope and I don't think the bond markets would tolerate more printing.

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two years ago, our banks were a bit short of cash.

so they get some.

and what do they do with it???

LEND IT TO FRACKING IRELAND.

genii.

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two years ago, our banks were a bit short of cash.

so they get some.

and what do they do with it???

LEND IT TO FRACKING IRELAND.

genii.

I doubt we are stumping up the £7bn out of kindness. It looks like an act of absolute desperation to me.....

Edited by nuts

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They would print and the BoE would buy the bonds. It woud probably be our currency that would be most at risk and it would limit our ability to trade with the world (our purchasing power falls). We may end up collateralising it with something like land.

In the mean time we would suffer even more volatile inflation and asset prices as we alternately try to cure inflation and deflationary depression.

Well BoE may iasue and buy it's own bonds such naked money printing could trigger a fall in confidence and a possible run on sterling. I don't see a happy ending here.

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They would print and the BoE would buy the bonds. It woud probably be our currency that would be most at risk and it would limit our ability to trade with the world (our purchasing power falls). We may end up collateralising it with something like land.

The government doesn't own the land, the landowners do.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ireland/8141618/British-banks-have-140-billion-exposure-to-Irelands-economic-crisis.html

"....RBS, the largely-nationalised bank, is thought to have the biggest exposure with more than £50 billion of outstanding loans"

What chance contagion to UK banks ? FSCS could not cope and I don't think the bond markets would tolerate more printing.

Let RBS go under!

Perhaps we should organise a "no more bailouts" on-line petition.

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I don't know what you are all worried about?

Ireland will be bailed out by the EU, so indirectly this will benefit UK banks exposed to Ireland.

In other words, just as the Greece bailout was really a bailout of the exposed French and German banks, the Ireland bailout is really a bailout of the exposed UK banks.

So thank the EU for once for baling out the UK banks (if you are in favour of keeping our corrupt banking system alive...).

Edited by wise_eagle

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Let RBS go under!

Perhaps we should organise a "no more bailouts" on-line petition.

I know a number of RBS employees and they are all living still in cloud cuckoo land, Audi's seem freely available as company cars salaries and bonuses seem unaffected and the corporate mindset totally unaffected by any number of bailouts by the UK taxpayers. There is still a certain level of arrogence going around about how great RBS are surely they have to be woken up some day and brought back down to the real world...

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Wouldnt it just be easier to count the actual good things RBS is exposed to?

It would be a lot quicker, anyway.

..and RBS are paying themselves huge bonus's again! Cos they are worth it.sad.gif

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ireland/8141618/British-banks-have-140-billion-exposure-to-Irelands-economic-crisis.html

"....RBS, the largely-nationalised bank, is thought to have the biggest exposure with more than £50 billion of outstanding loans"

What chance contagion to UK banks ? FSCS could not cope and I don't think the bond markets would tolerate more printing.

...was this another recently discovered hidden gem from Fred the Shred..... ?..... :rolleyes:

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I don't know what you are all worried about?

Ireland will be bailed out by the EU, so indirectly this will benefit UK banks exposed to Ireland.

In other words, just as the Greece bailout was really a bailout of the exposed French and German banks, the Ireland bailout is really a bailout of the exposed UK banks.

So thank the EU for once for baling out the UK banks (if you are in favour of keeping our corrupt banking system alive...).

All good but these have just been the warm up plays I reckon. When Spain gets tested some proper questions will be answered.....going by that chart that was floating around a while back, French banks exposed to about 20% of country GDP in Spain alone. UK banks have of course an immense exposure too.

Looks like we'll know within the next 12 mths anyway. IMO none of this ends until the the question of whether Euro states are jointly and severally liable for each others' debts is definitively resolved. If they are , surely Germany's cost of money starts reflecting its position as supporter of the basket cases? If not then presumably it's Iceland time for a large number of states.

Too historic and large to call, but the noises out of Germany would make me bet against them playing the saviour indefinitely. What do others think?

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I think this latest round of chest beating will recede into the collective background.

However, we will keep coming back to it. At some point someone will refuse to pay or we're collectively simply not able to. I would guess a few years for that. That's the point full on debt monetisation takes place.

So, in short, I agree although I would guess longer than 12 months.

The timing is so hard to call. It seems clear to me that at some point the whole thing comes to a (jarring) halt, but I have no idea when . Some days I think it could take 5 years or more, and some days I think it's coming next week ! Recently I've started erring towards sooner than later, cos I originally thought EFSF etc would buy 18mths +, and it only bought 6. Also the political stuff in Germany is much more difficult that people are letting on, IMO. Merkel is getting canned by other EU partners, but she isn't stupid and will know what her words and actions can do. I think she is in an incredibly tough position domestically after Greece, and that's minor in the scheme of things.

Agree that this round with Ireland won't be the real endgame though, there are still some twists and turns to come but whatever happens it's clear that as you say, the problem isn't going to just go away. Long term structural problems being "cured" with short term tactical solutions never ends well I guess.

Edited by FallingKnife

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two years ago, our banks were a bit short of cash.

so they get some.

and what do they do with it???

LEND IT TO FRACKING IRELAND.

genii.

I do hope that those nice bankers got 6 figure bonuses for lending all that cash to Irish banks at such profitable interest rates! I would hate to think that they didn't get a decent slice for such brilliant decision making. We have to keep the best business brains on board you know!!!!!

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The timing is so hard to call. It seems clear to me that at some point the whole thing comes to a (jarring) halt, but I have no idea when . Some days I think it could take 5 years or more, and some days I think it's coming next week ! Recently I've started erring towards sooner than later, cos I originally thought EFSF etc would buy 18mths +, and it only bought 6. Also the political stuff in Germany is much more difficult that people are letting on, IMO. Merkel is getting canned by other EU partners, but she isn't stupid and will know what her words and actions can do. I think she is in an incredibly tough position domestically after Greece, and that's minor in the scheme of things.

Agree that this round with Ireland won't be the real endgame though, there are still some twists and turns to come but whatever happens it's clear that as you say, the problem isn't going to just go away. Long term structural problems being "cured" with short term tactical solutions never ends well I guess.

Probably enough for the FTSE to power through the 6000 barrier though!

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If we have any more bank collapses it would have a domino effect on the whole financial system. There are "peaceful" or non-war methods to world dominance you know. ;)

Ah, the old blackmail gambit!

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two years ago, our banks were a bit short of cash.

so they get some.

and what do they do with it???

LEND IT TO FRACKING IRELAND.

genii.

It is very much the other way round I'm afraid:

RBS and HBOS lent very big in Ireland from the late 1990s, it all went wrong in 2006/07, they then needed bailing out by HMG and BoE (part nationalising, SLS and CGS) to help cover up their blackholes in Ireland.

HBOS was on one side sunk by dodgy lending in US (corporate and prop developer), Ireland (corporate, prop developer and the lowest end of prime residential (anything less than HBOS was sub-prime as they had the most lax mortgage criteria of the big lenders by a long way)) and UK (corporate and prop developer). (The other being shaky fickle short term funding to finance long term lending.)

RBS have a big Irish / NI subsidiary Ulster bank (used to be part of natwest pre-merger). Both Ulster Bank #3 in ireland (natwest style operation) and RBS (mainly corp and investment banking) were lending like there was no tomorrow.

H & BOS (seperately pre-merger!) decided they were missing out on the party in the mid 1990s and decided to go in big and gain market share in the traditional way by under cutting everyone else, they got the market share but forgot to stop under cutting! - the arrival of a certain ex-retailer CEO helped keep the brakes off.

When things started to go wrong, the irish government bailed out the irish banks (3 of 6 big banks in IRL), and left the UK to bail out HBOS and RBS (2 of big 6) with one more sensible one not needing too much help. The fact that the UK was bailing out UK banks because of problems in ireland wasn't mentioned in the UK as too much was happening at the time.

HBOS's problems in Ireland were one of the reasons Lloyds kept finding horror stories after the takeover (Nevada and dodgy UK corporate not helping either) and Lloyds effectively pulling/pulled HBOS out of Ireland, but needed a good amount of SLS and CGS to do it, they could still be exposed to further losses.

RBS couldn't pull out of Ireland as there was too much to walk away from so have had to stick with it and keep racking up the losses as prop prices keep falling. They are also taking a hammering in NI (NI price falls not in most indices!).

It could be argued that only Anglo Irish was more irrespossible than the 2 brits over there.

RBS and HBOS are not include in NAMA etc and have been the "invisible" elephant in the room over the water for while.

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The perversity of what's going on now would have been unimaginable even 3 years ago.

First of all we had a Labour prime minister robbing the poor to pay the rich. then came the Con-Lib coalition - fair enough - but the Lib Dems have supported unprecedented cuts in public spending that will affect most people adversely. And now that same government is reported to be considering giving £7 billion to Irish banks! That's about £1500 per head of the Irish population. And the same day, we hear that HSBC is to double the pay of its senior managers.

But never mind, we've all got a royal wedding to look forward to! ;) Nothing against William and Kate - although I'm a republican, if we're to continue to have 'royals' they seem like the right sort. I believe the monarchy will only last until we next have an unpopular king or queen, then it will be curtains!

..and people at RBS still get bonuses courtesy of the tax payer ....are we living some kind horror-movie where idiots say this is OK....?......
Like I say, it really begs belief. I suppose it's because these things unfold bit by bit, and we complain, shrug and then forget. Edited by blankster

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  • 144 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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