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In London Offers Are Collapsing At A Frightening Rate

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I work in London in the property sector and deal with hundreds of estate agents every week and the over-riding sense is one of fear as offers are collapsing at a frightening rate. One group of agents said that in January, 'Sold subject to contract' offers had a fall out rate of around 5%. At the end of October, the rate was 48%.

Is this true?!

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Is this true?!

Well, one offer in this family (daughters buying, SW London) has just collapsed. Offer made late summer, accepted straight away, but we subsequently found out that there's an absentee freeholder, which is causing all sorts of complications and extra expense, since we now have to buy the f/h in order to carry out plan A of converting the loft.

Just told vendor we'd have to revise offer down a bit, to account for all the extra expense, hassle and disruption, which of course we weren't aware of when the initial offer went in.

Vendor is not at all happy, and has put the property back on the market.

Incidentally, during investigations into buying the f/h, solicitor told us that there are charges on the property - don't know how much the debts are but no wonder the f/holder has b*ggered off.

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Just told vendor we'd have to revise offer down a bit, to account for all the extra expense, hassle and disruption, which of course we weren't aware of when the initial offer went in.

Vendor is not at all happy, and has put the property back on the market.

More anecdotal of misplaced optimism in the market. What percentage less were you offering out of interest?

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well, for months we've had around 47,000 APPROVALS, anecdotal cash buyers flooding the market, yet COMPLETIONS remain LESS than the approvals rate.

this means someone is lying....no cash buyers, or maybe half cash buyers and half of mortgage offerees withdrawing? who knows, but we are very much the land of broken chains.

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well, for months we've had around 47,000 APPROVALS, anecdotal cash buyers flooding the market, yet COMPLETIONS remain LESS than the approvals rate.

this means someone is lying....no cash buyers, or maybe half cash buyers and half of mortgage offerees withdrawing? who knows, but we are very much the land of broken chains.

Smoke and mirrors ;).

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More anecdotal of misplaced optimism in the market. What percentage less were you offering out of interest?

About 3.5. Initial offer was 250, AP was 270.

We revised down to 240.

Which frankly IMO is still pretty reasonable. Vendor bought for £208K in 05 and as far as I can see he hasn't exactly spent a fortune on it. Needs a complete tart-up.

Could be made extremely nice, though. Despite a hell of a lot of looking we haven't found anything else that ticks quite as many boxes.

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This seems to fit in with what I have seen with various friends in London, A month or so back I posted on here how I was surprised at how quickly offers at or near asking price had come in on 4 deals. Was also afraid that some of my friends might suffer as they were selling to upgrade (no telling some people!). Two of those deals completed. In the last week the other two have now failed twice in both cases - usually buyers being dishonest about actually having cash, or not being able to get a mortgage,

Of course, both sellers are now talking about going back on the market in the Spring :rolleyes: - there's going to be one massive flood of properties then!

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well, for months we've had around 47,000 APPROVALS, anecdotal cash buyers flooding the market, yet COMPLETIONS remain LESS than the approvals rate.

this means someone is lying....no cash buyers, or maybe half cash buyers and half of mortgage offerees withdrawing? who knows, but we are very much the land of broken chains.

What figures are you using for completions?

I'm pretty sure the HMRC shows sales at about 80,000 per month

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What figures are you using for completions?

I'm pretty sure the HMRC shows sales at about 80,000 per month

there was a thread a couple of weeks back with BoE figures, CML figures and other stats.

none of them seemed to tie up when the supposed flood of cash buyers is taken into account...the completions figures and the APPROVALS figures were close, but the completions were lower by about 3000.

Im afraid I dont track figures directly, so if you can get the HMRC figures, then that would help my mental model.

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Is this true?!

anecdotally an acquaintance of mine just isnt seeing this around the maidstone area, the rare drop out when it happens tends to be due to the buyer feeling inadequate about being able to adapt to the step up in class needed to fit in

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there was a thread a couple of weeks back with BoE figures, CML figures and other stats.

none of them seemed to tie up when the supposed flood of cash buyers is taken into account...the completions figures and the APPROVALS figures were close, but the completions were lower by about 3000.

Im afraid I dont track figures directly, so if you can get the HMRC figures, then that would help my mental model.

http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/survey_of_prop/menu.htm

choose "Number of property transactions completed in the United Kingdom with value £40,000 or above - monthly (PDF 30K) "

shows 78K residential property transcations for September

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anecdotally an acquaintance of mine just isnt seeing this around the maidstone area, the rare drop out when it happens tends to be due to the buyer feeling inadequate about being able to adapt to the step up in class needed to fit in

:lol:

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About 3.5. Initial offer was 250, AP was 270.

We revised down to 240.

Which frankly IMO is still pretty reasonable. Vendor bought for £208K in 05 and as far as I can see he hasn't exactly spent a fortune on it. Needs a complete tart-up.

Could be made extremely nice, though. Despite a hell of a lot of looking we haven't found anything else that ticks quite as many boxes.

Vendor is crazy, wanting the loft or not, any buyer with a half decent solicitor is going to be advised to tread very carefully with a place with an absent freeholder.

I suspect their heads have been turned because a few places in the street went for 280/290k in the mini boom/bull trap earlier this year. I've been looking with a friend at similar properties and seen several come back on the market this week.

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There's a growing discrepancy between the house price trend that Nationwide/Halifax are reporting and the Acadametrics trend. The big difference between them is that Halifax/Nationwide are based on mortgage offers, while Acadametrics is based on all properties, including cash purchases.

I'm looking to buy as a chain free, cash buyer. It's increasingly clear that although I'm lucky I'm nothing special. I've made a few -20% offers recently, emphasising that I'm able to complete very quickly. No luck so far (I know, I just have to be patient) but I've been astonished at how many of the subsequent buyers were also cash buyers.

This is also reflected in the figures for UK owner occupancy, owner occupancy is now falling quickly. Instead of a property owning democracy we're quickly reverting to the Edwardian model of property owning "haves", who increasingly own multiple properties, and mortgage failing "have nots", who are waking up to the fact that they're likely to be renting for a long, long time. This can not be a blueprint for a happy, stable society.

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Vendor is crazy, wanting the loft or not, any buyer with a half decent solicitor is going to be advised to tread very carefully with a place with an absent freeholder.

I suspect their heads have been turned because a few places in the street went for 280/290k in the mini boom/bull trap earlier this year. I've been looking with a friend at similar properties and seen several come back on the market this week.

I've been doing a lot of googling of 'absentee freeholder' since this came up - there's a mass of info out there - and apparently whereas it might not have been much of a problem when they were dishing out money like Smarties, it's now just another reason for lenders not to lend. Also seems that it's surprisingly common.

From our own POV however we took legal advice and went into it very carefully, and in the case of an absentee f/holder there is a statutory procedure for buying the f/h. Has to go through the courts and can take months, but particularly in this case should have been be no problem. Esp. given that there are charges on the freehold - at least some of his creditors would get some of their money.

Edited by Mrs Bear

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I get sent regular e-mails from a "below market value opportunity" company. About 2 years ago they were all terraced houses in Liverpool. Now half of them are London maisonettes.

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well, for months we've had around 47,000 APPROVALS, anecdotal cash buyers flooding the market, yet COMPLETIONS remain LESS than the approvals rate.

this means someone is lying....no cash buyers, or maybe half cash buyers and half of mortgage offerees withdrawing? who knows, but we are very much the land of broken chains.

Recent HMRC data for England:

Jul 77,000

Aug 71,000

Sep 68,000

Source (requires Excel): http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/survey_of_prop/val-40000-or-above.xls

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http://www.hmrc.gov....f_prop/menu.htm

choose "Number of property transactions completed in the United Kingdom with value £40,000 or above - monthly (PDF 30K) "

shows 78K residential property transcations for September

from the transactions notes:

These figures are based on a count of stamp duty land tax certificates issued, for residential and non residential transaction

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About 3.5. Initial offer was 250, AP was 270.

We revised down to 240.

Which frankly IMO is still pretty reasonable. Vendor bought for £208K in 05 and as far as I can see he hasn't exactly spent a fortune on it. Needs a complete tart-up.

Could be made extremely nice, though. Despite a hell of a lot of looking we haven't found anything else that ticks quite as many boxes.

Bonkers. Probably acting on the paranoid presumption that you're just trying it on and refused on principle. Count yourselves lucky and wait a bit longer. Prices must start falling now that the government is to a degree willing it to happen. Offer him 207k in a couple of months time for a laugh if nothing else ;)

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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