Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

Missed that bit of news. I thought the fall might be to do with the G20 leaders publicly agreeing not to pursue policies of competitive currency devaluation (a few fingers crossed behind backs me thinks) and the ECB agreeing to bailout Ireland.

But its all talk, not something thats happened.

Link to post
Share on other sites

GDX Technicals: Your Ticket to Ride

Morris Hubbartt

Weekly Market Update Excerpt

posted Nov 12, 2010

Gold and Precious Metals

Gold 6 Month Chart

Super Force Gold Bullion Analysis:

* Gold has a Super Force Sell Signal as of Tuesday November 9. This is simply a profit taking alert.

* Sell price 141.73 on SGOL.

Buy Price: 131.70 on SGOL.

* The "bullion equivalent" buy price: $1317

The "bullion equivalent" sell price: $1417

* A key point on SGOL's chart is the long tail candles. These have been quite positive in this market historically. The action points to higher prices in the short term.

* The Gold market spiked into my trend line target this week just below the 1425 area. Note the longer term one year chart below. Target area touched!

* Although we touched the target area, I certainly do not think the move in Gold is over. The Gold Market did, however, turn apparently decidedly, but I believe that most technicians are misinterpreting what is actually occurring here.

* A close look at the volume since the day Gold topped, tells me we may revisit the highs, most likely early in next week!

* I urge you to take advantage of all corrective action in the Precious Metal sector in the coming days on the buyside.

* I have highlighted price targets for your buys.

* The sensible way to buy in this sector is to use the identified buy target buys I have highlighted for you, and place your buy orders into that area. I was on the buy as soon as the precious metals sectors turned south, and have already booked profits on what I bought into those lows. You can do the same on this move down underway now for even bigger profits!

Read More My link

Link to post
Share on other sites

so is now a good time to buy or is it best to wait and see?

Hard to say, most of us goldbugs are in for the long term, but obviously you want to get in as cheap as possible if you can. I bought in Jan '09, it went up until March '09 then had a terrible summer and went down to below what I paid for it, until the autumn when it took off again. There's a lot of volatility but the overall trend is up, see here:


One way to do it is to buy a bit at a time to smooth out price fluctuations, that said, if it suddenly turns from here and goes on a tear you'll be kicking yourself. It's had a good run in the last week though, so will probably fall back a bit (as we can see today) and consolidate a little while. That's all I can say really, don't have a crystal ball I'm afraid. It's a long term fundamentals thing for me and it's worked out well so far.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Indeed. I don't think it changes a lot, good for some volatility in the mean time and an opportunity for JPM and HSBC to cut some loses while they can.

Can someone please explain this to me.

From the little that I have read, they are long calls and short the delta hedge in futures on the exchanges. I have not been able to find out their net OTC and physical positions.

Running any trading book, one might have large but mostly offsetting positions on exchanges (both in options and related delta hedges), in physical markets and in OTC derivatives markets.

From what I can tell, people seem to be focusing on their net futures positions only while ignoring their exchange traded options and other positions.

If anything, my read of their exchange traded position alone is that they are net long volatility and have made out like bandits in rebalancing their positions while the market is flying around.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.