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Where Next For Britain's Property Prices?

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http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/moneyweek-roundtable-what-next-for-property-prices-50727.aspx?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Money%2BMorning

Ever-bullish Assetz muppet Stuart Law going all out for HPI over ONE YEAR: +4%, FIVE YEARS: +21.5%

And get this:

...We've seen two quarters now from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors on rental growth and it's the beginning of a decade of a rental boom. People won't be able to buy and it will be horrifying how unaffordable rental housing will be.

Merryn: So where will people live?

Stuart: In rental houses. They will just stop buying fancy handbags and hand the money over to landlords instead. If rents are going up by 5%-10% a year for the next few years then slowing down a bit, that will support house-price growth.

Class.

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Class.

Hmm... So, less HB around, more unemployed, more (or same) taxes, higher prices for basics (thanks, Merv), but, no worries, higher rents can be paid for by holding off on a handbag purchase...

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http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/moneyweek-roundtable-what-next-for-property-prices-50727.aspx?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Money%2BMorning

Ever-bullish Assetz muppet Stuart Law going all out for HPI over ONE YEAR: +4%, FIVE YEARS: +21.5%

And get this:

Class.

I wonder how many HPC trolls are Laws' employees.

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http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/moneyweek-roundtable-what-next-for-property-prices-50727.aspx?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Money%2BMorning

Ever-bullish Assetz muppet Stuart Law going all out for HPI over ONE YEAR: +4%, FIVE YEARS: +21.5%

And get this:

Class.

Thus guy is a raving nutter! He is the the jester of housing Market analysts*. I've noticed that he doesn't seem to publish his Assetzzzz house price index anymore. Or at least I can't find it anyway! Maybe he only compiles one if prices are going up.

* can't call him an economist because he economic knowledge is plainly negligible.

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Thus guy is a raving nutter! He is the the jester of housing Market analysts*. I've noticed that he doesn't seem to publish his Assetzzzz house price index anymore. Or at least I can't find it anyway! Maybe he only compiles one if prices are going up.

* can't call him an economist because he economic knowledge is plainly negligible.

While this Stewart law chappie is clearly as on the lunatic fringe as some of the 50% HPC sheeple... he does raise an interessting point which is that if one assumes growth will remain sluggish for the next five years ( not unlikely), that mortgages will get if anything harder to get ( quite possible with the FSA'a new laws), that banks won't have access to wholesale markets like they once did for mortgage financing ( highly likely), that rates will remain low , that consumer confidence will remain muted and that prices at best will nominally hold value but lose value on a real basis then I think we will certainly see a situation where rental demand pretty much can only go upwards.... whether or not this will be enough to offset the housing benefot changes is a another matter but I do think we could end the next five years with a larger number of people renting property proportionalately and a lower number owning property... not through choice I suspect but as a fallout of the overall situation.

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Stuart Law strikes me as just the kinda guy for whom the phrase generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity just rolls off the tongue. <_<

Edited by Dave Spart

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My predictions, for what they're worth:

1 year: minus 7%

5 years: plus 15%

Ever-bullish Assetz muppet Stuart Law going all out for HPI over ONE YEAR: +4%, FIVE YEARS: +21.5%

Anyone whose 5 year predictions include decimal points is clearly talking the bovine equivalent of pig manure.

If you wanted to know the truth about the health of the buy-to-let market, the last person you'd ask is surely major BTL landlord, just like if you wanted to find out about safe driving on the roads the last person you'd ask is a fast car enthusiast!

Edited by Hyperduck Quack Quack

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Henry: Not that long. Look at how many July houses are on now at a lower price: 30%. We also know that average asking prices are £61,000 higher than average sale prices. An extraordinary gap

Am I right in saying therefore that the average house at £220k is going for £160k ?.. 27% below asking

Doesn't ring right (as much as I'd like it to)

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HPI ... Nominal or Real?

Relative to wage increases?

A small nominal rise, but an effective real drop of about 25-30%, as government / BoE created pushes wage demands of 5% + increase in pay per annum over the next 5 years.

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My predictions, for what they're worth:

1 year: - 7%

5 years: +15%

Anyone whose 5 year predictions include decimal points is clearly talking the bovine equivalent of pig manure.

anyone predicting a double digit increase in house prices in the next 5 years equally faecal IMO. Look again at this chart - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-average-house-price.php It took 13 years for prices to get back to peak prices after the 90s crash and that was with 120% interest only LIAR LOANS. Unless you are predicting some as yet undisclosed reality masking initiative which the current government are not as willing as the last to do i can't see how you arrive at that but please do enlighten me.

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I doubt house prices will increase at all over the next few years, however they will not fall by any substantial amount either. Everything has been done to support house prices/banks since 2007 and so shall this continue. Any significant HPC in the UK would cause carnage.

Live with it people. You cant change anything.

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Am I right in saying therefore that the average house at £220k is going for £160k ?.. 27% below asking

Doesn't ring right (as much as I'd like it to)

I read that to mean that of all the houses recently coming to the market, 30% of them have been lowered in prices. That is most likely to mean a third of the new instructions have come down in price by 5%, while the other two thirds haven't budged in price.

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While this Stewart law chappie is clearly as on the lunatic fringe as some of the 50% HPC sheeple... he does raise an interessting point which is that if one assumes growth will remain sluggish for the next five years ( not unlikely), that mortgages will get if anything harder to get ( quite possible with the FSA'a new laws), that banks won't have access to wholesale markets like they once did for mortgage financing ( highly likely), that rates will remain low , that consumer confidence will remain muted and that prices at best will nominally hold value but lose value on a real basis then I think we will certainly see a situation where rental demand pretty much can only go upwards.... whether or not this will be enough to offset the housing benefot changes is a another matter but I do think we could end the next five years with a larger number of people renting property proportionalately and a lower number owning property... not through choice I suspect but as a fallout of the overall situation.

jeezus

house tenure is far far more elastic than you or stuart give it credit. end. of. if people have no money they won't throw every last poenny at savign their landlord's investment - they'll save the gucci handbag and BMW and instead live in a smaller home or share, BECAUSE THEY CAN.

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I doubt house prices will increase at all over the next few years, however they will not fall by any substantial amount either. Everything has been done to support house prices/banks since 2007 and so shall this continue. Any significant HPC in the UK would cause carnage.

Live with it people. You cant change anything.

real terms crash without significant nominal falls, if that is what you are saying

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real terms crash without significant nominal falls, if that is what you are saying

The goalposts have been moved, and so they shall be moved again when the time comes. Simples.

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While this Stewart law chappie is clearly as on the lunatic fringe as some of the 50% HPC sheeple...

Have you seen what's happening in Ireland, the US, Spain etc? What makes you so confident that we're special?

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Read the article, these people didn't see anything wrong back in 2004-06 - so I don't pay much attention to what they say now.

Personally - how will house price be in the future?

They will be a bad-word - just like DotCom boom, Equitable Life and Timeshares.

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Anyone whose 5 year predictions include decimal points is clearly talking the bovine equivalent of pig manure.

+1.

If you think you can predict next month to 1/2 a percent you don't know what you're doing. If you think you can predict 5 years from now you're just plain mad.

It's called bulls*** for a reason.

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Who was more right about forecasting house prices in 2009-2010. Us lot or Stewart Hall ? :ph34r:

Dunno about you, but I'm with Stuart Hall all the way...

stuart_hall_2000.jpg

post-278-0-68187300-1289587267_thumb.jpg

Edited by red

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While this Stewart law chappie is clearly as on the lunatic fringe as some of the 50% HPC sheeple..

Nice to find a realistic bear on this site. I was beginning to wonder if they existed...

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Nice to find a realistic bear on this site. I was beginning to wonder if they existed...

Morgan Freeman’s son, Alfonso Freeman appears in the Shawshank Redemption as an extra, shouting "Fresh fish! Fresh fish today! We're reeling 'em in!" when the new inmates arrive

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  • 201 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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