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Natural Gas is pretty much at an all time low. (See chart)

So it looks like a commodity which can only go up. However I've been caught out by contango on ETF's before so I'm wary of investing directly in UNG. Anyone know of any other ways of playing natural gas?

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Natural Gas is pretty much at an all time low. (See chart)

So it looks like a commodity which can only go up. However I've been caught out by contango on ETF's before so I'm wary of investing directly in UNG. Anyone know of any other ways of playing natural gas?

The reason why gas has gone down is that new production techniques (fractured gas) has increased production and potential reserves and there has been a large number of gas transporting ships built to use what has previously been waste. Poland, for instance, has been assessed to have 1000 years gas supply with the new technique.

I'd speculate on something else if I was you.

I doubt UK gas prices have any relation to the wholesale cost.

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I lost money on things like Natural Gas ETFs and Portland Gas, until I realised that the money is in the gas-selling companies. NG futures have been bouncing off lows for ages for a very good reason. For a punt, I'd bet on US companies involved in selling NG, it is one of America's potential temporary ways out of the peak-oil scenario. Or just basic utility companies here for the income. As a commodity, there are many many more exciting things to get involved in now, although NG is almost certain to rise long-term.

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Oh I forgot to mention that if you want exposure to natural gas with high risk/upside, consider VOG. They just raised a ton of money by diluting 20-odd % (much to my annoyance!), and will hopefully get contracts sorted out for a pipeline to sell their gas discovery. They also have other promising gas finds in Russia and elsewhere.

Lots of potentially good news in the pipeline (couldnt resist!), a good entry price now (5.5p ish), funds raised to progress, but there is geopolitical risk to watch out for, and the management don't fill me with confidence.

All depends on your attitude to risk really.

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Thanks for your comments:

I'm aware of the new production techniques but was reckoning that because it is so cheap at the moment we would see an expansion in gas fired power stations, maybe even vehicles or olefin production, so over the long term supply and demand will find a higher equilibrium. After previous experiance and advice here won't touch ETF but may put some into US producers/sellers e.g. CHK. though their aggressive hedging is a little wierd.

CASH: do you mean producers or retail sellers?

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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