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Realistbear

Friday, 12Th November, 2010: Black Friday

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Notice how oil is leading the market nowadays. All I have to do is see the price of oil, and I guess where the stock markets will be for the day.

Oil is useful everywhere in the world, from the biggest centers, to remote villages it is equally needed.

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Notice how oil is leading the market nowadays. All I have to do is see the price of oil, and I guess where the stock markets will be for the day.

Oil is useful everywhere in the world, from the biggest centers, to remote villages it is equally needed.

It's always been like that. I used to dabble in oil in 07/08. Oil demand is dependant on the strength of the global economy. The same factors effect both oil and the stock markets.

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RB,

how black is it going to get?

100 points down from 5900 isnt even a flesh wound.

300 points down from 5900 would get this thread buzzing a bit.

500 points down would be a re-celebration of Black Monday in 1987.

900 points down, well that would even get people on HPC worried, and that would be a black day.

What is your call?

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French economy grows 0.4 percent in third quarterl
.
8:19, Friday 12 November 2010
The French economy grew 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2010, in line with government forecasts but
sharply down from 0.7 percent in the previous quarter,
official data showed on Friday.

No doubt unexpected given the speed at which the SD dissappeared--only to re-emerge as reality retruns to the fiasco know as the EZ.

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Notice how oil is leading the market nowadays. All I have to do is see the price of oil, and I guess where the stock markets will be for the day.

Oil is useful everywhere in the world, from the biggest centers, to remote villages it is equally needed.

A function of the QE/money ditching policies you espouse, it will end very badly, again. This is purely an extension of the policies that have created serial bubbles, each one of which have caused critical damage to the real economies of those that have gone down this route, destroying jobs and whole industries and making them ever more reliant on imported goods, fake growth and government funded jobs (with even money borrowed money).

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RB,

how black is it going to get?

100 points down from 5900 isnt even a flesh wound.

300 points down from 5900 would get this thread buzzing a bit.

500 points down would be a re-celebration of Black Monday in 1987.

900 points down, well that would even get people on HPC worried, and that would be a black day.

What is your call?

Down 3.2% on the FTSE. Down 4.1% on the DOW.

But.................in a market where bad news is a buy signal who can really tell. PITW, I am not placing any bets on todays resuts I just have a feeling we are long overdue a dose of reality on the obscenely over-optimistic markets.

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Oil would have to reach a price of around $150 to touch the previous all time dollar high in real terms ($35 nominal 1970's). It's bound to touch that again, given time and continued QE.

But the severity of the economic impact won't be as significant as previously experienced until it reaches something higher, maybe $200. This is taking into account the improvements of efficiency since the 1970's.

At that point, if reached, one would expect to see rationing again and perhaps global unrest (demonstrations, strikes and riots).

I cannot see how the rising oil price is going to help the world's export nations, they will be hit hardest of all. Maybe this is one of Bernanke's goals.

Edited by Toto deVeer

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Down 3.2% on the FTSE. Down 4.1% on the DOW.

But.................in a market where bad news is a buy signal who can really tell. PITW, I am not placing any bets on todays resuts I just have a feeling we are long overdue a dose of reality on the obscenely over-optimistic markets.

Problem is as I see it, we have:

- Stock market indices based on a relatively small number of large companies. Companies which, due to their size and political influence, are probably less sensitive to market forces than average, at least in the short term.

- Automated trading progams that have little if any connection to considerations of long term value driving the market.

- A very, very large supply of very low cost money.

After all, basic maths suggests that if there is an unlimited supply of interest free credit then the price of all assets should be bid up to infinity. So you could say that the question is - why are stocks so cheap?

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Down 3.2% on the FTSE. Down 4.1% on the DOW.

But.................in a market where bad news is a buy signal who can really tell. PITW, I am not placing any bets on todays resuts I just have a feeling we are long overdue a dose of reality on the obscenely over-optimistic markets.

Even Claudius would have been shocked to witness the amount of poison that is hatching out, eh RB?

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Call me old fashioned if you like but I like to see predictions before the day and not after the Chinese markets have dropped overnight.

Non thread IMO just blatant aftertiming

Yeah, but it is much easier to predict the future retrospectively.

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LONDON (
Reuters
) - The top share index fell sharply on Friday as Ireland's debt troubles and concerns over China's overheating economy weighed on investor sentiment, with financials and commodity-linked stocks leading the fallers.

But but but...isn't this a buy signal? :lol:

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Most of the items which are glaring red from the overnight trading have started rallying off the bottoms since RB posted. FTSE up 25 points, for example

Just saying is all.....

:P

Up 25 points*--must be a buy day today!

TBH, there is too much bad news out there for one day to reverse the computer trading which sees collapsing future prospects as an opportuniy to load up on more. Buy every dip as dips are a sign of pent up demand....or something like that.

_______________________

* FTSE 100 5749.04 -1.14%

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Up 25 points*--must be a buy day today!

8:00 FTSE 5747 - open

8:10 FTSE 5710 - low for the day thus far

8:25 FTSE 5730 - you start thread

9:30 FTSE 5763 - i give good natured joshing

:P

30 point profit is a reasonable gain for a short term day trading system....not that I trade the FTSE

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Every time I see one of these threads, I should take as a sign to 'buy buy buy' B)

The markets see it that way. Nothing like a sea of red ink to send the indices up up and away!

Quite a few things* are seeing red today which must mean people are seeing it as a buying opp?

Europe Last Trade Change Related Information

^AEX AEX (Netherlands) 340.73 9:37am -4.10 (-1.19%) Chart, Components, more...

^ATX ATX (Austria) 2,644.53 9:37am -12.12 (-0.46%) Chart, more...

^BFX BEL-20 (Belgium) 2,597.06 9:52am -34.58 (-1.31%) Chart, Components, more...

^FCHI CAC 40 (France) 3,794.18 9:52am -73.17 (-1.89%) Chart, Components, more...

^GDAXI DAX (Germany) 6,667.53 9:37am -55.88 (-0.83%) Chart, Components, more...

^FTSE FTSE 100 (United Kingdom) 5,758.09 9:37am -57.14 (-0.98%) Chart, Components, more...

^IETP ISEQ20 (Ireland) 431.27 9:37am -2.72 (-0.63%) Chart, more...

^SMSI Madrid General (Spain) 0.00 0.00 (+0.00%) Chart, Components, more...

OMXC20.CO OMX Copenhagen 20 (Denmark) 429.10 9:51am -4.07 (-0.94%) Chart, Components, more...

^OMXSPI OMX Stockholm 30 (Sweden) 344.58 9:50am -3.72 (-1.07%) Chart, Components, more...

^PSI20 PSI 20 (Portugal) 7,670.95 9:52am -49.67 (-0.64%) Chart, Components, more...

FTSEMIB.MI S&P Mib (Italy) 20,632.82 9:52am -223.14 (-1.07%) Components, more...

^SSMI Swiss Market (Switzerland) 6,456.21 9:36am -60.78 (-0.93%) Chart, Components, more...

^OSEAX Total Share (Norway) 453.58 9:37am -3.99 (-0.87%) Chart, Components, more...

Asia/Pacific Last Trade Change Related Information

^AORD All Ordinaries (Australia) 4,778.80 5:40am -31.50 (-0.65%) Chart, Components, more...

^BSESN BSE 30 (India) 20,160.98 9:48am -428.11 (-2.08%) Chart, more...

^HSI Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 24,222.58 8:01am -477.72 (-1.93%) Chart, Components, more...

^JKSE Jakarta Composite (Indonesia) 3,665.85 9:00am -78.77 (-2.10%) Chart, Components, more...

^KLSE KLSE Composite (Malaysia) 1,499.81 8:50am -13.89 (-0.92%) Chart, Components, more...

^NZ50 NZSE 50 (New Zealand) 3,310.58 4:31am -20.92 (-0.63%) Chart, Components, more...

^N225 Nikkei 225 (Japan) 9,724.81 6:28am -136.65 (-1.39%) Chart, more...

^NSEI S&P CNX NIFTY (India) 6,063.05 9:53am -131.20 (-2.12%) Chart, more...

^KS11 Seoul Composite (South Korea) 1,913.12 9:03am -1.61 (-0.08%) Chart, Components, more...

000001.SS Shanghai Composite (China) 2,985.44 7:00am -162.31 (-5.16%) Chart, Components, more...

^STI Strait Times (Singapore) 3,252.00 9:10am -41.39 (-1.26%) Chart, Components, more...

Africa/Middle East Last Trade Change Related Information

EGX30.CA CASE 30 (Egypt) 6,837.19 10 Nov 7.85 (+0.11%) Chart, more

]^TA100 TA-100 (Israel) 1,165.59 10 Nov -5.64 (-0.48%) Chart, Components, more...

Lots a buying going on--fill yer boots lads!

___________________________

*DONT go there...................... :ph34r:

Edited by Realistbear

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Now, if you'd have called it in advance, of Shanghai dropping 5.2% overnight I might have been impressed.

But since it's you I'm now seriously worried by call 2 days ago for Black Monday may be compromised.

You are simply the best contra-indicator on t'internet, nonpareil.

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Update:

8:00 FTSE 5747 - open

8:10 FTSE 5710 - low for the day thus far

8:25 FTSE 5730 - you start thread

9:30 FTSE 5763 - i give good natured joshing

10:30 FTSE 5794

10:50 FTSE 5815 - positive for the day, and 100 points off the low. Now closing in on 100 point gain since you started the thread.

I was very very tempted to buy the FTSE Daily when you posted, but I don't go in when it is so oversold. Bugger.

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With the Irish problem now contained everything should resume to its normal status:

FTSE 100 5798.64 -0.29%

$ = Euro 1.36756 £1.60416

GOLD 11/12/2010 06:20 1386.20 -22.70 -1.61%

All the time the CBs are there with a bailout the markets are going nowhere but up.

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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