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exiges

Annoying Isn't It ?

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Most of here are waitingi for more realistic house prices..

One headline today is:

Debts leave 3m Britons struggling to pay mortgage, says Shelter

18% of mortgage holders say they are constantly struggling to meet monthly payments compared with 10% a year ago

So you think "oh, maybe things are about to change.. maybe house prices are going to settle to a proper level"..

Then on the same day..

The number of homes repossessed in the UK is continuing to fall as low interest rates help homeowners to keep paying their mortgages.

:blink:

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Yes, but it's only because interest rates are abnormal....wait and see what happens when they creep up, and creep up they will. B)

Well, they can only go one way, but it looks like that can be up to 2-3yrs away before they reach sensible levels.. by which time inflation will have done all the work at the expense of savers.

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We are the last man standing among those nations who participated in the Brown bubble. US, Spain, Ireland--all laid to waste HPI-wise.

We are much more dependent on HPI than those other participants which is why the BoE will do everything in the government's power to keep IR low despite inflation or come what may. Banks are already stalling on repossession actions and the labour market stats are being kept healthy-looking due to big increases in PT employment.

For now, everything is on the up and up including Sterling, our bonds, our stocks, our consumer spending and, relatively speaking to the other HPC countries, our houses.

They could conceivably keep the pretense of blue skies and prosperity going for at least another 6 months. Much will turn on real job losses and that is a massively lagging indicator.

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Yes, but it's only because interest rates are abnormal....wait and see what happens when they creep up, and creep up they will. B)

of course they will at some point because they can't go any lower but it's going to be quite a few years yet before we see anywhere near old normal rates.

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Why should your prospects of getting a house be contingent on someone else losing theirs? Surely the bulk of the problem is too few decent houses and too many empty ones?

You're probably right, but I don't see them building enough properties to precipitate a 30% drop in prices. Putting up the cost of borrowing to effect the same is easier and more likely. This would also reward savers.

Edited by exiges

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You're probably right, but I don't see them building enough properties to precipitate a 30% drop in prices. Putting up the cost of borrowing to effect the same is easier and more likely. This would also reward savers.

The present situation I view, (or try to), using the following context; if you want to get somewhere and you are traveling by foot and it is say 150 miles away, I am more likely to give up in the first 40 miles as I still have 110 miles to go, however when as I believe we are in the last 40 miles I will not give up.

Only cognitive dissonance stand in my way and thats in my head not my feet, keep walking!

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Why should your prospects of getting a house be contingent on someone else losing theirs?

Very very valid point. One of the most sensible statements I've seen on this forum in a long time. In that definition of the problem, there is the kernel of a solution to be had, I am sure.

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Well, they can only go one way, but it looks like that can be up to 2-3yrs away before they reach sensible levels.. by which time inflation will have done all the work at the expense of savers.

Will it though? I thought most of the debt was index linked..?

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Why should your prospects of getting a house be contingent on someone else losing theirs?

I think you should start a new topic with that headline. Think there might be quite a bit of discussion around that statement.

To turn it around:

Has my ability to buy a house been affected by other people buyig lying about their income in order to get a larger mortgaget than they could otherwise and therefore pricing me out of the market?

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We are the last man standing among those nations who participated in the Brown bubble. US, Spain, Ireland--all laid to waste HPI-wise.

We are much more dependent on HPI than those other participants which is why the BoE will do everything in the government's power to keep IR low despite inflation or come what may. Banks are already stalling on repossession actions and the labour market stats are being kept healthy-looking due to big increases in PT employment.

For now, everything is on the up and up including Sterling, our bonds, our stocks, our consumer spending and, relatively speaking to the other HPC countries, our houses.

They could conceivably keep the pretense of blue skies and prosperity going for at least another 6 months. Much will turn on real job losses and that is a massively lagging indicator.

I have come to the conclusion that this is the nub of the problem. Eventually house prices will have to correspond to wages within a sustainable credit environment. It may take several years for this to play out. My advice is live in a caravan, move in with mum, a friend etc. if you can - for some of us with kids this isn't an option. Watching the situation on a day-by-day basis (I think) is likely to send you on a downward spiral, in the past (as I recall) people were less informed so tended to worry less.

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Yes, but it's only because interest rates are abnormal....wait and see what happens when they creep up, and creep up they will. B)

Did you see this? Extract from a link on another thread, on BTL LLs:

In an online survey, landlords said they were less confident than they had been.

One replied at length, saying that he had 55 properties, bought with SVR mortgages: “I can’t remortgage because I’ve only got about 15% equity across the portfolio, but now banks want 25%. If interest rates go up 1%, I will find it hard. A 2% base rate will bankrupt me, forcing me to default on a £6m portfolio.

“I wonder how many landlords are in this situation.”

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Why should your prospects of getting a house be contingent on someone else losing theirs? Surely the bulk of the problem is too few decent houses and too many empty ones?

Tax empty property.

Commercial and residential.

Get the wheels moving.

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Well, they can only go one way, but it looks like that can be up to 2-3yrs away before they reach sensible levels.. by which time inflation will have done all the work at the expense of savers.

That is true, but of course, in this unfair scenario there are ways to make inflation and currency devaluation work for you.

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of course they will at some point because they can't go any lower but it's going to be quite a few years yet before we see anywhere near old normal rates.

Quite a few years? I think I can call this one pretty accurately.

Interest rates will start to rise just after the next general election. <_<

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I think it far preferable to keep people in houses they can't afford and to suppress the worker bees who complain about being forced to pay for it via ZIRP,QE,rising food prices and fiscal foolery.

That's the coalition's policy. They are extending the mortgage rescue scheme introduced under Labour. Political capital is built on homeownership and the rest are roadkill.

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It could be said that those who came about houses dishonestly via liar loans were merely playing by the rules, or lack of them. I'd rather people's ire be aimed at the rule-writers, but this doesn't take away from my main point being that more decent homes need to be built and better use made of empty ones - that is a criminal neglect on a national scale.

Edit, and while we're spreading blame, maybe a good dollop should be aimed at those who enabled rates to be on a lowering path for the past 20 years. i.e. China

Agreed. I don't think it's right to blame the players in a crooked game. It's the gangster casino bosses that should be targeted.

Sadly there is always a tendency to blame the mugs who get sucked in rather than the con artists who set up the game.

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Tax empty property.

Commercial and residential.

Get the wheels moving.

taxes are hardly going to make things cheaper are they?

If someone isn't using a property it is likely that they don't have any way to make money from it.

the problem is a lack of supply where houses are in demand - there is no intrinsic reason as to why houses in the south east should not be lower in price - except that supply is constrained by the planning process.

Edited by LJAR

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  • 146 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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