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Dandy Bear

Reassurance Sought

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Hello

This is my first post, on any forum. I have little investment knowledge. I work hard and save what i can. I found this site a few years back and enjoyed reading the posts because they gave me optimism that one day i may be able to afford a house at a reasonable price.

From reading the threads i have learnt bit about gold. Initially i had no savings, but have finally built up a stash of cash. A few months back i thought i really should invest in gold. But i am over cautious. I waited and watched, a little too closely perhaps. I hoped for a correction but, as you know, it didn’t come. Gold was at 1200 dollars an ounce then. I wa sworried i'd missed the boat. If you were me, would you enter the game now? Am i too late or just in time? Should i wait or jump in now. OK so its 1400 now, all time high. I think I'm gonna go for it, probably 10% of my savings on physical gold and 5% on silver. Just looking for reassurance really.

While i'm posting, i have another couple of questions. If I buy silver from Guernsey, 1 coin at a time, its VAT free. If i buy Silver Britannia’s I don’t pay tax on my earnings. Is it possible to buy Britannia’s VAT free from Guernsey? If not, then surely i’m better of buying here and paying VAT as opposed to tax on any future profits?

If I buy >5000 pounds of gold ID is required and the transaction documented. If i sell >5000 pounds of gold is this documented? I guess they won’t pay cash? Britannia’s or not, wont the tax man come looking for me?

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First things first.

Gold is $1400 but you are in sterling.

Look at the £ price.

Learn about how the 3 interact ( $/£/gold).

Second, consider your timeframe.

Gold is a long term hold. If looking in terms 5 or 10 years then any price now is a good start. Ignore the daily swings.

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First things first.

Gold is $1400 but you are in sterling.

Look at the £ price.

Learn about how the 3 interact ( $/£/gold).

Second, consider your timeframe.

Gold is a long term hold. If looking in terms 5 or 10 years then any price now is a good start. Ignore the daily swings.

good advice ;) I would consider more then 10 and 5%.

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Hello

This is my first post, on any forum. I have little investment knowledge. I work hard and save what i can. I found this site a few years back and enjoyed reading the posts because they gave me optimism that one day i may be able to afford a house at a reasonable price.

From reading the threads i have learnt bit about gold. Initially i had no savings, but have finally built up a stash of cash. A few months back i thought i really should invest in gold. But i am over cautious. I waited and watched, a little too closely perhaps. I hoped for a correction but, as you know, it didn’t come. Gold was at 1200 dollars an ounce then. I wa sworried i'd missed the boat. If you were me, would you enter the game now? Am i too late or just in time? Should i wait or jump in now. OK so its 1400 now, all time high. I think I'm gonna go for it, probably 10% of my savings on physical gold and 5% on silver. Just looking for reassurance really.

While i'm posting, i have another couple of questions. If I buy silver from Guernsey, 1 coin at a time, its VAT free. If i buy Silver Britannia’s I don’t pay tax on my earnings. Is it possible to buy Britannia’s VAT free from Guernsey? If not, then surely i’m better of buying here and paying VAT as opposed to tax on any future profits?

If I buy >5000 pounds of gold ID is required and the transaction documented. If i sell >5000 pounds of gold is this documented? I guess they won’t pay cash? Britannia’s or not, wont the tax man come looking for me?

Gold isn't a investment, investments pay you to hold them (Dividends with shares, rental income with property). Buying gold is a gamble, similar to punting on a horse. This gamble requires the price of Gold to keep rising and in the same way that a Ponzi scheme works, it requires a constant new stream of gamblers to buy into the bet. Once the economy recovers, Gold will crash in price until the next economic recession.

By all means buy Gold, in the short/medium term it will keep rising, but keep a constant track of the price as the bubble could burst at any time. To protect your 'investment' trawl the internet and encourage other punters to gamble on Gold. In five years time the world economy will have recovered and the price will be back near its production cost.

Good luck, and here is some more web sites you may find useful

http://www.paddypower.com/bet

www.betus.com

www.online-betting.me.uk/

Edited by Peter Hun

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Gold isn't a investment, investments pay you to hold them (Dividends with shares, rental income with property). Buying gold is a gamble, similar to punting on a horse. This gamble requires the price of Gold to keep rising and in the same way that a Ponzi scheme works, it requires a constant new stream of gamblers to buy into the bet. Once the economy recovers, Gold will crash in price until the next economic recession.

By all means buy Gold, in the short/medium term it will keep rising, but keep a constant track of the price as the bubble could burst at any time. To protect your 'investment' trawl the internet and encourage other punters to gamble on Gold. In five years time the world economy will have recovered and the price will be back near its production cost.

You sound like a moron.

Everything is a gamble of sorts. Keeping your funds as cash is still a gamble.

The 'gamble' does not require the price of gold to keep going up. What it does is protects from currency continuing to fall.

Obviously you expect everything to be fixed very soon. The rest of us understand inflation, quantative easing and the fundamental situation of sterling ( most fiat for that matter).

british-pound-purchasing-power.jpg

Edited by richyc

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Heres a chart with a bit more history, specifically showing what happened at the last big spike in Gold prices. Being a moron, I'd suspect that maybe the same thing will happen (Gold price collapse) as it did in the early 1980's

monthly_dollar.gif

Now, tell me how it will be 'different this time' and not another bubble?

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Heres a chart with a bit more history, specifically showing what happened at the last big spike in Gold prices. Being a moron, I'd suspect that maybe the same thing will happen (Gold price collapse) as it did in the early 1980's

monthly_dollar.gif

Now, tell me how it will be 'different this time' and not another bubble?

Gold could well spike again, bubbles rarely occur in the same place twice though.

It does not change the fact that the purchasing power of sterling currency has lost dramatically.

Your chart looks scary :rolleyes: but what about the inflation adjusted price?

Here is a chart with a little bit more history.

Gold_inflation.jpg

Looks like we are still some way from a bubble doesn't it? Last time gold spiked it was a bubble, this time paper has dived because of a global credit crisis which is far from over.

Edited by richyc

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That said, it is far from a one way bet, I like the odds (especially against sterling) but research and reading is needed.

I would stay away from forums particularly the likes of kitco which are all goldbugs, plenty of great info there but it is very one sided.

Look at more balanced sites like this http://www.zealllc.com/ or market oracle etc

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Gold could well spike again, bubbles rarely occur in the same place twice though.

.

.

.

Looks like we are still some way from a bubble doesn't it? Last time gold spiked it was a bubble, this time paper has dived because of a global credit crisis which is far from over.

I'll quote these for prosperity.

Here's an image of a bubble never happening twice, here it shows it three times, in fact there has been about a dozen house price bubbles over the last 200 years.

homepage.png

The last Gold price bubble was cause by inflation, just like the current bubble.

Edited by Peter Hun

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Hello

This is my first post, on any forum. I have little investment knowledge. I work hard and save what i can. I found this site a few years back and enjoyed reading the posts because they gave me optimism that one day i may be able to afford a house at a reasonable price.

From reading the threads i have learnt bit about gold. Initially i had no savings, but have finally built up a stash of cash. A few months back i thought i really should invest in gold. But i am over cautious. I waited and watched, a little too closely perhaps. I hoped for a correction but, as you know, it didn’t come. Gold was at 1200 dollars an ounce then. I wa sworried i'd missed the boat. If you were me, would you enter the game now? Am i too late or just in time? Should i wait or jump in now. OK so its 1400 now, all time high. I think I'm gonna go for it, probably 10% of my savings on physical gold and 5% on silver. Just looking for reassurance really.

While i'm posting, i have another couple of questions. If I buy silver from Guernsey, 1 coin at a time, its VAT free. If i buy Silver Britannia’s I don’t pay tax on my earnings. Is it possible to buy Britannia’s VAT free from Guernsey? If not, then surely i’m better of buying here and paying VAT as opposed to tax on any future profits?

If I buy >5000 pounds of gold ID is required and the transaction documented. If i sell >5000 pounds of gold is this documented? I guess they won’t pay cash? Britannia’s or not, wont the tax man come looking for me?

One of the considerations is your age.

If your in your 20's then just buy it, if your in your 60's have more of a think.

The reasoning behind this is: If your in your 20's then over the course of your life gold should go up. If not then atlest you have the coins to pass on as inheritance, but over 60 years I can't see any reason why it won't increase in £ terms.

If you older then you need a return to be quicker to make it worth while.

Just my thoughts. I'm still stacking. (and in my 20's)

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I'll quote these for prosperity.

Here's an image of a bubble never happening twice, here it shows it three times, in fact there has been about a dozen house price bubbles over the last 200 years.

homepage.png

The last Gold price bubble was cause by inflation, just like the current bubble.

Are they really bubbles or cycles? Do you understand what a bubble is?

This last event was a property bubble and is unlikely to repeat again in the same magnitude imo.

Inflation has had little to do with the recent price of gold.

Edited by richyc

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Are they really bubbles or cycles? Do you understand what a bubble is?

This last event was a property bubble and is unlikely to repeat again in the same magnitude imo.

Inflation has had little to do with the recent price of gold.

Yes of course everyone sudden interest in Gold is because they have discovered its very pretty to look at.

I which case I think I should point you can make very pretty stuff with using Gold.

Bubble/cycle whats the difference?

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Peter, you keep carrying on like this and you may well smash the price down singlehanded.

Why would I want that?

I think you will find all the sane posters left this sub-forum long ago which is the only reason it would be single handed

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Yes of course everyone sudden interest in Gold is because they have discovered its very pretty to look at.

I which case I think I should point you can make very pretty stuff with using Gold.

Bubble/cycle whats the difference?

I don't think that there has been a sudden interest. People pick up on it in forums like this because it is being discussed but go and sit in a train station, burger king, cafe and I bet you will not here gold mentioned once in a whole day.

Gold is useless, I agree entirely, but while it is perceived as valuable then it is.

Cycles occur regularly, like seasonality, sell in may and go away, 18 year property cycles, business cycles etc etc.

Bubbles are a frenzy of speculation by people expecting a quick and sizeable return from a one way bet. The smart money is already out by the time joe public adds to the frenzy near a top.

People are selling gold at the moment to all sorts of postal places and stands in shopping centers, no one is talking about buying or has any interest. Doesn't sound like a damp squib let alone a frenzy.

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Dear Dandy Bear,

A couple of websites I would highly recommend with highbrow gold, silver and economic opinions and information, in particular their podcasts.

http://www.financialsense.com/ (click the newshour tab and then select big picture)

http://radio.goldseek.com/

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Broadcast.html

This I am sure will give you considerable insight into the markets and more confidence to start switching paper money savings into gold and silver.

On youtube I would suggest watching Peter Schiff's regular market comments.

http://www.youtube.com/user/schiffreport?blend=1&ob=4

Edited by Take Me Back To London!

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Heres a chart with a bit more history, specifically showing what happened at the last big spike in Gold prices. Being a moron, I'd suspect that maybe the same thing will happen (Gold price collapse) as it did in the early 1980's

monthly_dollar.gif

Now, tell me how it will be 'different this time' and not another bubble?

That peak was 30 years ago. The current like for like inflation adjusted peak would be $2,200 to $2,500, if using non fiddled inflation measurements the price is $5,000 to $6,000 and if you consider the amount of US dollars in circulation compared to 1979/80 this is in the region of $15,000+ and if the amount of U.S debt is factored in this raises to around $35,000.

In 1971 gold was $35 and by 1980 it hit $850 a 24 fold increase, since the start of this bull run in 2001 we are up only 5 fold.

Then you have to factor in this is a far more serious monetary crisis than we faced in the 1970s!

Also do you think Ben Bernanke is going to do what Paul Volker did in 1980 and put interest rates to 20% to regain confidence in the dollar. As the biggest debitor nation in the world, and no longer the largest creditor, the U.S. could not do that now even if they wanted to and all to big to fail banks would go down.

If you are in doubt about the Fed Chairman "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ld4OUOM05QYJ:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Bernanke+ben+bernanke+speech&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

In 2002, when the word "deflation" began appearing in the business news, Bernanke gave a speech about deflation.[50] In that speech, he mentioned that the government in a fiat money system owns the physical means of creating money. Control of the means of production for money implies that the government can always avoid deflation by simply issuing more money. He said "The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at no cost."

In a footnote to his speech, Bernanke noted that "people know that inflation erodes the real value of the government's debt and, therefore, that it is in the interest of the government to create some inflation."

In pound sterling the UK house price crash has been very disappointing, however anyone with part or all their FTB or STR funds in gold has seen a consistant and full blown house price crash, as per the chart. We are now under 200 troy ounces and heading towards 50 toz.

UK_House_Prices_in_Gold_LOG_GUESS.png

Edited by Take Me Back To London!

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That peak was 30 years ago. The current like for like inflation adjusted peak wanted to and all to big to fail banks would go down.

If you are in doubt about the Fed Chairman "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ld4OUOM05QYJ:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Bernanke+ben+bernanke+speech&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

Good man, take me back.......someone talking sense ! :rolleyes:

Edited by GinAndPlatonic

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Good man, take me back.......someone talking sense ! :rolleyes:

...and there was me thinking that the charts that I posted said it all :D

Dandy, there are some interesting films around to watch. I can recommend 'the moneymasters' by Bill Still. There is another about credit and business cycles that I will have to dig for but will post when I find it. Neither are gold related but will give a grounded start point.

Edit the moneymasters http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936&ei=xtB1SuP0DJKF-Qaio-D7CA&q=MONEY+MASTERS&hl=en#

Edited by richyc

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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