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City Says Homeowners Should Be Braced

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Guest wrongmove

Guardian article. Pretty bearish stuff.

City says homeowners should be braced for period of falling prices

· Official figures challenged by analysts

· Warning that market is already in retreat

Larry Elliott and Charlotte Moore

Tuesday September 13, 2005

The Guardian

"The City was last night warning homeowners to brace themselves for a period of falling house prices after the latest figures from the government showed the value of property rising at its slowest rate since the year before Tony Blair entered Downing Street.

Analysts cast doubt on data from the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister and two of Britain's biggest mortgage lenders indicating that prices were still rising modestly and said the real picture was of a market already in retreat.

The ODPM said yesterday prices in the year to July rose by 4%, down on 5% in June and considerably lower than the double-digit increases racked up last summer - the point at which the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, stepped in to ***** the property bubble.

House price inflation began to wane almost as soon as Mr King stressed that the market was teetering on the brink of a fall, and the past year has seen the plethora of indicators for the health of the property market all registering marked declines....."

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Do they mean they heard about it on some show between two Corrie episodes?

Now the cat is out of the bag..........

/G

A large fall in HPs would be a breath of fresh air to all of us except the recent (post 2002) FTBs and even they have the option if they're quick of locking into fixed long term cheap money.......which won't exist if the lower prices are caused by high IRs...............

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Guardian article. Pretty bearish stuff.

City says homeowners should be braced for period of falling prices

· Official figures challenged by analysts

· Warning that market is already in retreat

Larry Elliott and Charlotte Moore

Tuesday September 13, 2005

The Guardian

"The City was last night warning homeowners to brace themselves for a period of falling house prices after the latest figures from the government showed the value of property rising at its slowest rate since the year before Tony Blair entered Downing Street.

Analysts cast doubt on data from the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister and two of Britain's biggest mortgage lenders indicating that prices were still rising modestly and said the real picture was of a market already in retreat.

The ODPM said yesterday prices in the year to July rose by 4%, down on 5% in June and considerably lower than the double-digit increases racked up last summer - the point at which the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, stepped in to ***** the property bubble.

House price inflation began to wane almost as soon as Mr King stressed that the market was teetering on the brink of a fall, and the past year has seen the plethora of indicators for the health of the property market all registering marked declines....."

Ah so its merv fault after all :angry:

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Guest consa

Excellent article, they have seen the light!!

They have realised that the house price indices are weighted in favour of higher priced properties distorting the figures.

They have also realised that the indices are going to go to zero or negative any time soon.

This will be mainstream news.

We know prices are falling and at the moment it is anywhere between -6% and

-11%, the problem is that the VI's can hold the indices in their favour for as long as they need to.

We need to find a way to get a true picture!!!

We need ideas!!!

We need our own indices

We can all sit here and watch the indices sprout rubbish.

I have said before and so have others:-

The higher priced properties are selling due to released Equity to purchase another property and renting the existing one out, this does not need FTB's!!

FTB's account for 8% of sales at the moment, so this must be the case.

You see if 10 flats sell at 100 000 the average price will be 100 000, if 5 houses sell at 200 000 the average will be 200 000. So the reduced number of sales equates to rising prices or as I would prefer, distorted figures.

Any suggestions for correlating our own price indices???

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Guest consa
Own Index...  Have you noticed this one?

00e7mp.gif

5-Builders:

WHAT DOES THIS chart represent? Does it tell us anything about the future?

Wouldn't it be great if you could get an advance indication of the various House Price Indices on a daily basis, weeks before the Official indices are released. And, how would you like to see a technical method which sums up, an a single figure, the pressure pushing UK property lower or higher?

Well there is an Indicator that I have been working to create... which may do that.

The system that I have developed involves looking at the stock charts for Five UK Homebuilders, and measuring how "bearish" the charts look in relation to moving averages. The stocks involved are UK Builders: Wimpey (WMPY), Barratt (BDEV), Persimmon (PSN), Wilson Bowden (WLB), and Balfour Beatty (BBY).

First, I add up all five stock prices, to arrive at a total for the Five Builders. At the end of 2004, the combined total was 3,143. By the end of July 2005, the total had reached 3,444- an increase of 9.6%. It is not so easy to compare this directly with the House Price Indices, so I convert these raw total figures into an "5-Combi" Index, by dividing each figure by the end Dec.2003 amount (2,680), and then multiplying by 100, to get an index which has a 100.0 value at the end of 2003. This method of calculation, gives me an index figure of 117.28 for Dec.2004, and 128.51 for the end of July 2005. These figures can now be readily compared with published index figures

@: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=13797

Should have known you were onto it doc!! nice work ;)

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City says homeowners should be braced for period of falling prices

To most people who have owned their homes for several years this headline won't really mean much. To those people who have bought-to-let in the last couple of years this should be absolutely terrifying. How many sleepless nights before they sell-up?

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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