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Unusually Cold Weather Is Imminent?

Britney's Piers

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Came across this quite disturbing information, especially considering the chaos caused in this country by the slightest hint of snow.

Perfect storm of cold brewing

We’ve talked here about the perfect storm of cold brewing for our planet

  • a quiet sun
  • cooling oceans
  • a cooling atmosphere
  • cold PDO
  • more frequent La Linas
  • increased volcanism.

Firstly we look to Indonesia, part of the ring of fire where they may have at any one time five to 10 volcanoes at the third highest alert level. Currently however they have in the last 2 months raised the alert level in 21 volcanoes to 2nd and 3rd highest alert level. The second highest alert level says an eruption is possible within weeks. This is significant and potentially ominous. Next we go to Iceland. Not only have we blogged previously about the impending danger of Katla but now we find Iceland’s most active volcano Grimsvotn is starting to cause glacial outburst/floods. Grimsvotn look set to blow it’s top and yes Europe again will be affected. Katla is still, according to betting agencies the No 1 favourite for the next major eruption and Iceland’s volcano and earthquake blog says there is a sudden rise in tremors around Katla and Eyjafjallajökull.

There is speculation that increased volcanic activity is connected to low sunspot cycles – which we are currently within. Solar Cycle 24 is anemic at best with some predicting it and solar cycle 25 will be a dud cycles at best. Original projections for solar cycle 24 to reach a sunspot maximum of 160 by 2010/2011 a have now been revised to possibly achieving sunspot maximum of 65 by 2013/2014. When low and elongated sunspot cycles correlate with cooling periods of earth (eg Dalton and Maunder minimum), and volcanic eruptions add another cooling signal then the future is definitely looking very dangerously cold.

Since Solar Cycle began we have seen a cooling and contracting of the upper atmosphere, cooling oceans and cooling climate. As the oceans absorb the heat from the sun and store it for a period, less heat coming in means a cooler ocean. The longer this period of lower sun heat persists then the more the oceans will cool. As the oceans regulate our climate on earth (keep it warm) a colder ocean means a colder climate.

Low sunspot cycles also have another effect. Svensmark also talks about how periods of low sunspot activity correlate with periods of high cloudiness. During periods of low sunspots more cosmic rays hit the earth which causes more water molecules to form in the atmosphere, meaning more moisture (or clouds) in the sky. If we have more moisture and colder temperatures then this means more snow. Snow (ice) is one of the deadliest killers of life on the planet.

Natural historical climate cycles also interact with our weather. With the climate having entered a cold PDO (pacific decadel oscillation) which means 20 – 40 years of cooler, wetter weather, more prevalent and stronger La Ninas (like we are currently having), and less prevalent and weaker El Ninos. The current LaNina is already the strongest in over 60 years.

SOURCE: http://www.twawki.com/?p=9623


With a rapid onset – the strongest La Niña since 1955-56


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Came across this quite disturbing information, especially considering the chaos caused in this country by the slightest hint of snow.

Thanks for the post. Its refreshing to look at charts that say something other than 'the basic cost of shelter is extortionate and unaffordable but will remain so indefinitely'. I feel that there is more going on in our weather patterns and global disturbances than is being reported in the press. Once more though I find people look at me as if I am deranged (such as when I talk about the market distortion in house prices damaging the economy) when I ask people if they feel that there is more to the freak weather than anyone is telling us.

Personally I find a little bit of snow quite welcome - its the kid in me - but something tells me we should start preparing for much colder winters as a way of life.

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Cool. Can we take this as a great HPC contrarian indicator and look forward a mild, damp winter?

Our part of the world seemed to suffer most during the Little Ice Age, so probably not.

Cold weather kills many many more than heat, so we'd better hope the OP is wrong, even though he is not.

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Well it better not be coming from the east, its warmer in Moscow at the moment than it is in London :lol:

Weather for Moscow, Russia

- Add to iGoogle

14°C | °F

Current: Overcast

Wind: S at 4 mph

Humidity: 82%

Weather for London

- Add to iGoogle

1°C | °F

Current: Clear

Wind: S at 1 mph

Humidity: 81%

14c in Moscow on a mid November night, who'd a thunk it (that is record warm for them btw)

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Here is more on the La Nina episode.

The Super La Nina and the Coming Winter

Things might get real cold.

October 25, 2010 - by Art Horn

A super La Nina is developing.

Historically, these strong La Nina events drop the Earth’s average temperature around one degree Fahrenheit, and the drop comes quickly. As a result, some of the same places that had record heat this summer may suffer through record cold this winter.

La Nina is the lesser-known colder sister of El Nino. La Nina chills the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and in turn cools the entire planet for one to two years or more. This chilling has the potential to bring bone-numbing cold to many parts of the world for this and the following winter. As a result, world energy demand may spike in the next one to two years as much colder weather hits many of the major industrial nations.

This La Nina appears to be special, at least so far. It is well on its way to being the strongest of these events since the super La Nina of 1955-1956. During that powerful La Nina that lasted two years, the global average temperature fell nearly one degree Fahrenheit from 1953 to 1956.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) measures the air pressure difference between Darwin, Australia, and Tahiti. The lower the value of the index, the stronger the El Nino typically is. The higher the SOI index, the stronger the La Nina. The September SOI value of +25.0 was the highest of any September going back to 1917, when it was +29.7. During that super La Nina, the global temperature fell 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit from 1915 to 1917. The +25.0 September SOI reading is also the highest for any month dating back to the +31.6 value in November of 1973.

The most recent La Nina developed in the spring of 2007, and persisted until the early summer of 2008. The global average temperature fell one degree Fahrenheit in that period of time, equal to all of the warming of the last 100 years! If the trend of this rapidly developing, potentially super La Nina continues, an equal or larger temperature drop can be anticipated during the next one to two years. This La Nina is coming on very fast and very strong. Already it is colder than the six coldest La Ninas of the last 60 years when they were at a similar stage of development.

What about the recent heat we’ve all heard about?

For the last year, the world has been dealing with the warming effects of a strong El Nino. The El Nino warms the ocean waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean and in turn heats the atmosphere. Western Russia melted under a record heat wave this summer, after freezing from record cold last winter. Many parts of the southern United States had record heat this summer, but also shivered under record cold last winter. The persistence of the jetstream to blow in patterns that changed very little for long periods of time contributed to these extremes of temperature. This locked in jetstream wind pattern enhances temperature anomalies by restricting the exchange of air flow from one place to another. What would be hot becomes very hot, and what would be cold becomes very cold.

It is common for the jetstream to behave this way when the sun is in the solar minimum, such as it has been for the last three years. We are emerging from the minimum, but the sunspot numbers are continuing to be very low. Some solar experts say this next sunspot maximum may be one of the weakest in 200 years. As a result, the tendency for the jetstream to blow over parts of the Earth with little month-to-month variability may continue this year. That would result in continued extremes of temperature. The difference would be this time cold areas would be even colder due to the oncoming super La Nina and the falling global temperature.

The El Nino of the last year pushed the global temperature right back to where it had been in the beginning of 2007. The result has been no net warming or cooling since then. In fact, there has been no net warming or cooling since around 1999. Interestingly, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from 369 parts per million to 387 ppm (parts per million) during this time. This amount is above the level of 302 ppm in 1910, when 20th century global temperature started to rise. Despite this significant rise in carbon dioxide since 1999, there has been no “global warming” during this period.

Right now the Pacific Ocean is in the beginning of a thirty year cooler spell called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. There is a strong, potentially super La Nina developing. The sun is still quiet with very few sunspots. When these conditions exist, the first two months of the cold season (December and January) tend to be cold from Montana to Iowa to Florida up to the Great Lakes and most of New England. In addition, temperatures tend to be very cold from central and western Canada to Alaska. China could suffer a bitterly cold December and January if historic temperature patterns are consistent with current conditions. Much of central and western Europe are cold in these situations as well.

The second half of the cold season (February and March) typically experiences some changes in the global temperature patterns in these types of winters. For Europe the changes are not good. Bitter cold and snow dominates from western Russia across all of Europe. In other words, what starts as a cold winter in central and western Europe deepens into a severe winter in February and March across all of Europe. The extreme cold eases in southern China but it deepens in the north and northeastern part of the country. In the United States the cold of December and January in the middle and eastern part of the country reverses to mild weather from Texas to Florida up to the Great Lakes and New England. All of the western U.S. is cold and snowy up to the northern Great Plains. What starts as a mild winter out west turns much colder with large amounts of snow while the east gets a break from the cold.

The current La Nina is coming on stronger than any in decades. The world is demanding more and more energy to fuel growth even in hard economic times. This winter may test the world energy supplier’s ability to provide it. The resulting increase in demand could produce a spike in energy costs. This could bring more hardship to people who are suffering through this long and deep recession. It remains to be seen if this La Nina equals or exceeds the super La Nina of 1955/56. Right now El Nino’s colder sister is on the fast track to generate more temperature extremes and a very cold winter in some parts of the world.

SOURCE: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-super-la-nina-and-the-coming-winter/2/

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Am waiting for HPC's resident meteorologist to confirm. He got it spectacularly right last year.

Something to keep you going

"In Britain between 1991 and 2007 most winters were mild, but the last two years have brought a change, with 2009/10 bringing the coldest conditions since 1979 to many parts of the country. So a cold winter this year would mean the third in succession. Is it likely? As ever, long range forecasting is about identifying broad patterns and trends, and given this TheWeatherOutlook view is that a colder than average conditions are likely this winter.

However, the pattern which develops may be different this time, with the cold tending to come more from the east or south east rather than the north east. In this scenario the heaviest snow often occurs in the boundary zone between the cold dry air from the east, and the mild and moist air trying to push in from the Atlantic, but the cold can be most persistent in eastern regions."

Accuweather USA forecast most severe cold will be in central europe/balkans - so if we get those (south)easterlies off the continent there will be tons of snow again Wales/cotswolds/chilterns etc (Jan/Feb time)

First blast of icy stuff expected after 10th dec in south uk

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Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.

The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years.

Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds.

According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe.

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Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.

The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years.

Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds.

According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe.

No gulf stream equals approx 5c off UK average temp iirc.

IE it gets halved

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Am waiting for HPC's resident meteorologist to confirm. He got it spectacularly right last year.

What was that poster's name again? He/she was a couple of weeks ahead of any news source about the weather and deadly accurate too.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/ was Chris25's reference site.

Coldest winter for 1000 years expected from RT


Yes - what some of them do is collate info from numerous sources and look for patterns in the weather from the computer simulations up to couple of weeks or more ahead.

Like this shows expected computer 'simulation' patterns up to a week ahead http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

If you were looking for a cold snowy UK scenario you have to watch for highs/lows/wind direction in particular patterns either from Northerly Polar regions or over Russia/scandinavia/europe causing Atlantic westerly weather blocks which stalls the weather over the UK and creates snow/ice when hitting cold enough temps coming from the East!

The amateur hobbyists are 90%+ more accurate than what you get off the Media esp predicting farther ahead!

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