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Captain Cavey

Scotland Fails To Buck Trend

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After months of bucking nonsense, RICS announces that Scotland may be in a wee bit of trouble after all (BBC)

Uncertainty hits Scottish housing market

Scottish chartered surveyors believe uncertainty over cuts has caused a downturn in the housing market.

A survey for October found that more surveyors reported a drop in prices than a rise, giving a negative balance for the first time in more than a year.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) found that new buyer inquiries and new instructions also all moved into negative territory.

Many buyers said they would wait until the spring before making a move.

Last month Scottish surveyors were more optimistic than their counterparts elsewhere in the UK.

They reported that in September prices were recovering faster than in other parts of the country.

Sarah Speirs, deputy director of RICS Scotland, said: "Scotland had been bucking the trend in the last couple of months in terms of falling house prices up until this month. What we are seeing now is the Scottish market falling into line with the rest of the UK.

"The general uncertainty over the recently announced budget cuts and looming public sector unemployment are impacting on the market.

"If we couple this with a lack of mortgage finance, the time of year and the fall in both supply and demand we can see why the market has been hit hard."

First-time buyers

Chris Highton, of Allied Surveyors in Selkirk, said: "It is now clear that the usual upturn after the summer holidays is not happening this year.

"The number of properties going to the market has dropped off significantly and the bottom end of the market remains dire, with very few first-time buyers able to obtain mortgage funds."

He added: "Without movement at the lower end, the whole market is affected."

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And shock horror - Reporting Scotland actually stated this story with a distinct lack of 'positive' spin this morning.

Something must be in the water.

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EXCELLENT!!

If you think that's good, you'll like this even more:

Scottish house prices down by 4.9%

November 10, 2010 by Guest Writer ·

In the latest four week period available the Scottish average house price has decreased by -4.9% to £157,800 and the volume of sales in Scotland has decreased by -10.3%.

The map below lets you find out what’s happening to house prices in your area.

Even Edinburgh is -8.5%!

Link

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Thanks for that!!

To be honest those with property I know just don't listen so it'll only be me excited!

Do you guys still think we'll see a crash if rates are held low (and with the job losses?).

It's so strange.... prices should be tanking but people are so resilient when it comes to pricing -they aren't being forced to move is what it is. And even if prices were to come down for say one house in a street - I'm betting others would NOT follow suit.

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+14.4% for East Ren though... :angry:

Do you actually believe that? Nonsense numbers like that tell you all you need to know about how meaningless these figures are.

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Do you actually believe that? Nonsense numbers like that tell you all you need to know about how meaningless these figures are.

Agreed. Only 131 properties registered in that time period for East Ren, so statistically not robust.

However, with a total of 6521 properties for the whole of Scotland – this represents a better spread ……..and the trend is down.

Rejoice

Source

Edit: the figures do not seem to be weighted for a spread of property types (as per Haliwide indices), so the purchase of a McMansion in the district will severely skew the figures

Edited by Captain Cavey

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Do you actually believe that? Nonsense numbers like that tell you all you need to know about how meaningless these figures are.

No I don't believe it represents reality for a minute. I know full well the increased average price in East Ren is because the few houses selling are higher up the chain.

What makes me angry is how the raw figures are peddled in the media without the required analysis. Clarkston sales are still month for month (over the last 2 years) about 1/2 2007/2008 volumes and the average prices continue to climb.

Not a bear in despair, just getting p-ed off with how the crash is being drawn out...

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No I don't believe it represents reality for a minute. I know full well the increased average price in East Ren is because the few houses selling are higher up the chain.

What makes me angry is how the raw figures are peddled in the media without the required analysis. Clarkston sales are still month for month (over the last 2 years) about 1/2 2007/2008 volumes and the average prices continue to climb.

Not a bear in despair, just getting p-ed off with how the crash is being drawn out...

So basically this data has an unquantifiable confound in the fact that the type of property is not adjusted for. So up or down, its hard to take seriously. Ups get latched onto by the VI media and treated as gospel. Mind you, the downs get latched onto by plenty on this board without much criticism!

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I’m getting sick of this bucking reporting, there is so much wrong with this it’s hard to know were to start. Herald

Scotland bucks the trend as house prices hit new highs

Chris Watt

16 Nov 2010

Homeowners have been given a boost by new figures showing a steady rise in house prices across Scotland, as the economy continues a “robust” recovery from the recession.

Lloyds TSB found record prices in much of the country –bucking the downward trend seen south of the Border.

The bank’s survey builds on data from the Registers of Scotland this month which revealed the average house price had hit a high of £163,360.

The Lloyds survey recorded an increase of 4.6% year-on-year, slightly less than the Registers figures but still evidence of a sustained recovery in the national housing market.

By contrast, new sellers in England and Wales knocked an average of nearly £7500 off their asking prices during the past month as the housing market there continued to stagnate, according to research released yesterday

The value of new homes on the market fell by 3.2% during the four weeks to November 6, the biggest drop since December 2007, according to property website Rightmove.

It said that, south of the Border, prices had now fallen in four of the past five months, leaving the average property valued at £229,379.

Nonetheless, the typical English home is more expensive than a house in Scotland’s dearest city, Aberdeen, which costs an average of £224,672. In Edinburgh a typical property is £211,555. In Glasgow it is £162,270 and in Dundee it costs £134,059.

According to Lloyds, the average price tag across Scotland as a whole is £165,284.

The latest quarterly figures show that the housing market overall is stabilising, restoring confidence after several years of boom and bust.

Lloyds recorded a modest 4.6% growth in average prices over the past 12 months, with a slight decrease in the previous quarter cancelled out by a rise in the most recent figures.

House prices are almost back at the record heights of 2008.

The average deal is now worth 96% of its value 27 months ago, before the property market downturn, the bank said.

Homes in oil-rich Aberdeen are now worth 8.4% more than they were at their pre-recession peak. After hitting a low during the depths of the recession in 2009, they rose in four out of the last five quarters. A jump of 10.5% in the last three months gives an underlying annual increase of 15.3% – more than three times the growth seen in Scotland as a whole.

Edinburgh, long the most expensive city in Scotland, saw a fall of 9% in the last three months, wiping out an 8.7% gain from the previous quarter.

As fallout from the banking crisis hits incomes in the capital’s financial sector and the threat of public sector job losses looms, prices have risen by a comparatively subdued 3.9% year-on-year.

Glasgow’s prices recorded a 1.3% increase over the year. However, Lloyds said areas south west of the Clyde, including Newton Mearns and towns such as Dumfries, rose by 5.2% year on year.

The average price of a detached house has risen by 9.5% in the quarter, compared to 3.8% for a semi-detached and 4.4% for a terraced home.

There was a 4.5% slump in the price of flats, bringing them more within reach of aspiring home-owners.

Donald MacRae, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Scotland, said: “After five quarters of declining output in the last seven, the Scottish economy recorded a robust increase of 1.3% in growth in the three months ending June 2010.

“The Scottish housing market has adjusted to this changing economic environment.

“Sales have halved but have now stabilised, while prices – after an initial fall – are now showing an annual increase comparable to retail price inflation. There are no signs of a precipitate fall in house prices.

A bit more of an interpretation from the Hootsman to counter the Herald

Published Date: 16 November 2010

House prices increase, but Scottish market stifled by economic fears

By JEFF SALWAY

PERSONAL FINANCE EDITOR

HOUSING market activity is grinding to a halt in Scotland, as economic uncertainty keeps buyers and sellers out of the market, a report out today reveals.

Sales levels have declined sharply in the last year despite a modest increase in prices, according to the latest house price monitor from Lloyds TSB Scotland.

House prices north of the Border are 4.6 per cent higher than a year ago, with the price of the average home up 3.7 per cent to £165,284 in the three months to the end of October.

However, the figures are based on a low level of sales, which are down 17 per cent on the previous three-month period and 10 per cent below the level of a year ago.

While Scottish house prices have almost returned to the level of mid-2008, Lloyds said they would remain subdued over the coming months. Donald MacRae, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Scotland, said: "Sales have halved but have now stabilised while prices, after an initial fall, are now showing an annual increase comparable to retail price inflation.

"There are no signs of a precipitate fall in house prices. Likewise, there is little prospect of significant house price gains in the immediate future."

The Lloyds TSB data supports Registers of Scotland (RoS) figures out two weeks ago showing record house price increases over the three months to the end of September. However, experts pointed out that the RoS report covered sales agreed as far back as April, when the market was stronger. Other evidence suggests the Lloyds data is at odds with the prevailing trend.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors last week reported that interest from both buyers and sellers plunged in October, while the number of surveyors reporting price falls outstripped those seeing prices rise for the first time in more than a year.

The discrepancies between the various house price reports are due largely to the current low level of sales, which means that averages can be easily distorted.

Matthew Gray, property services director at Pagan Osborne, pointed out that with many first-time buyers frozen out by lenders, sales involving second and third time buyers - traditionally the busiest area of the market - had dried up.

"That means that any activity is in the middle and higher end, where there are far fewer sales, making any analysis of prices far more sensitive to the effect of a low number of transactions.

"Confidence has been hit due to continuing economic uncertainty and worries over job losses, particularly in the public sector."

The housing market recovery may also be hindered by new lending rules being considered by the City watchdog, it has been claimed.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) yesterday said Financial Services Authority proposals to subject borrowers to tough new affordability and income checks would freeze more people out of the housing market.

Michael Coogan, director general of the CML, said: "If implemented as drafted, these rules would likely have the effect of creating significant financial exclusion among perfectly creditworthy borrowers."

Low volumes result in these swings in averages, but wow, the HPI-VI’s really jump on any sign of apparent “good news

Edit: added Scotsman link

Edited by Captain Cavey

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Low volumes result in these swings in averages, but wow, the HPI-VI’s really jump on any sign of apparent “good news

Edit: added Scotsman link

Propaganda doesn't matter anymore at this point.

The game is over and people know it.

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Propaganda doesn't matter anymore at this point.

The game is over and people know it.

You know what - I am starting to think that too.

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The penny drops at BBC Scotland? An uncharacteristically balanced view for a change – makes the Heralds “churnalism” for the same story look even more embarrassing

Lloyds TSB reports uncertainty in Scottish house market

House prices in Scotland demonstrated continued market uncertainty over the past three months, according to the latest survey from Lloyds TSB Scotland.

It suggested that prices had risen nearly 5%, comparing the last 12 months year with the previous 12 months.

But the number of transactions remained low, at half of pre-recession levels.

There had been particular volatility over the past six months, with a fall in summer, followed by a similar scale of rise in the three months to October.

The pattern from the bank's survey shows that Scottish house prices peaked in 2008 and fell for four consecutive quarters after that.

They now appear to be at 96% of the peak they reached 27 months ago.

The figures from Aberdeen suggested prices had returned to a point closer to that peak level, remaining the highest average price of any city or region in the country.

At £224,000, the average Aberdeen price was £13,000 ahead of Edinburgh, with the average Scottish home price at £165,000.

Dundee has had a particularly volatile price, according to Lloyds TSB Scotland, though it said that might be explained by a very low number of transactions.

Recession adjustment

There has also been volatility in the north-east, excluding Aberdeen city, which was down by 13% in the quarter to July and up by 21% in the most recent quarter.

The survey of property sales suggested the biggest price increases have been among the higher priced homes, with detached houses up by 6% in a year, and the biggest increase in the most recent quarter.

Flats saw a decline of more than 4% in the quarter and a rise of 1.9% on the year.

Lloyds TSB Scotland analysts suggested the Scottish housing market had adjusted to the recession and added that there was "little prospect of significant house price gain in the immediate future".

down & up 13% & 21% in successive quarters ??

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The penny drops at BBC Scotland? An uncharacteristically balanced view for a change – makes the Heralds “churnalism” for the same story look even more embarrassing

down & up 13% & 21% in successive quarters ??

Hamish likes to call this "normal seasonal variations" :lol:

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Look at the back of the RICS report, count the number of Scottish surveyors that contributed to the report, and consider whether or not the opinions of such a small number forms a significant commentary on the market as a whole.....

The last time I looked, a few months ago, there were 7 (seven) Scottish surveyors listed.

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And so it continues...... and this from the BBC, headlining the Scottish Section !!!!

14 December 2010 Last updated at 01:02 GMT

Scottish house prices 'fall again', surveyors say

Scottish surveyors have reported a slowing of the housing market with prices slipping even further.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said 20% more members reported that prices fell rather than rose in November.

However, RICS said the pace of decline in Scotland was slower than the rest of the UK, with Northern Ireland and the West Midlands seeing steep price falls.

Surveyors said they did not expect the situation to improve soon.

Their expectations for house prices over the next three months remained negative and the number of sales were also predicted to fall.

RICS said the November figures showed first-time buyers were still in short supply and this was down to the difficulty in getting mortgages.

Its spokesperson for Scotland, Sarah Speirs, said: "Despite some better economic data, fears over how future spending cuts will impact on the jobs market are clearly still weighing heavily on potential purchasers' minds, with many deciding to 'wait and see' until the new year."

According to many of the surveyors questioned, the seasonal slowdown has come earlier than usual.

John Bradburne, with Bradburne and Co in St Andrews, said: "The market is very gloomy and worse still fickle.

"The stock is there and we are sure that there are sufficient potential buyers."

"It's just a lingering and very general mistrust of the medium term future in general economic terms. Perhaps it may brighten up in the spring" :lol::lol::lol: .

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Interesting. Main story on BBC teletxt also. However not even mentioned on Reporting Scotland.

Can't see it mentioned on the Scotsman's Property pages or general business pages either.

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Interesting. Main story on BBC teletxt also. However not even mentioned on Reporting Scotland.

It was their main story for most of this morning on the BBC News Scotland website.

However, all of a sudden, it's now the 10th story on the page (small headline link, no lead).

How can the main headline get buried so deeply in about 3 hours? :blink:

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It was their main story for most of this morning on the BBC News Scotland website.

However, all of a sudden, it's now the 10th story on the page (small headline link, no lead).

How can the main headline get buried so deeply in about 3 hours? :blink:

Whoever clearly has a serious vested interest on the Reporting Scotland management news team - had a chat to Mr Internet ?

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Savings and wages drop

Financial provider NS&I said the drop could be a result of declining income levels compared with 12 months ago.

Average monthly take-home income has fallen from £1,424.81 in autumn 2009 to £1,309.51 in the latest quarter.

http://breakingnews.heraldscotland.com/breaking-news/?mode=article&site=hs&id=N0199761292582125939A

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Reporting Scotland deciding to report on the latest RICS report this morning. :rolleyes:

BBC

Decided to pick out some rather strange details though. Main introduction was that 'One fifth' of surveyors saw the market 'surging' - IIRC.

Why would they choose to pick out 20% of the surveyors rather than the other 80% ?! Incredible.

They then went on with other 'positive' news but did at least end on the note that "the market last month ranged between sluggish and stable"

If you look at the actual BBC online report. 40% were positive. So how many were negative ? 19% saw prices fall and only 4% saw prices rise.

And if you look at the actual comments from Surveyors etc.. they don't exactly paint a rosy picture.

Yet for some reason Reporting Scotland manage to report this as a 'good news' story. :rolleyes:

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Reporting Scotland deciding to report on the latest RICS report this morning. :rolleyes:

BBC

Decided to pick out some rather strange details though. Main introduction was that 'One fifth' of surveyors saw the market 'surging' - IIRC.

Why would they choose to pick out 20% of the surveyors rather than the other 80% ?! Incredible.

They then went on with other 'positive' news but did at least end on the note that "the market last month ranged between sluggish and stable"

If you look at the actual BBC online report. 40% were positive. So how many were negative ? 19% saw prices fall and only 4% saw prices rise.

And if you look at the actual comments from Surveyors etc.. they don't exactly paint a rosy picture.

Yet for some reason Reporting Scotland manage to report this as a 'good news' story. :rolleyes:

So the basis for the BBC headline is that a minority of surveyors are optimistic about the coming months.

Jeez, get a grip BBC. How can this justify a “Scotland's property market picks up” headline.

I particularly liked this line: …”its monthly survey suggests an increase in the number of sellers and buyers in the market, but sales remain slow”

Lets break this down for you BBC.

• More people are trying to sell, but can’t because the prices are still too high

• More people are trying to buy, but can’t get the money together because the prices are still too high.

Is that clear enough BBC? Can you see the problem?

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Reality: stormy weather, thunder and high winds

BBC headline: 'Weather prospects look optimistic'

I think the BBC should change its logo to something more appropriate:

150.jpg

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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